It depends how that 40% IPC increase is generated. AMD stated that IPC increased by up to 40% on a core basis, but that includes SMT now. A Pentium 4 with HyperThreading (Intel's marketing name for SMT) had up to a 30%-40% IPC increase with multi-threaded code, but that was unusual. Mostly it was only up to ~10-15% with multi-threaded code.So, where would +40% IPC put Zen in relation to current Intel offerings?
I think in an ideal situation, with a perfect and consistent 40% IPC increase in both single-threaded and multi-threaded code could bring Zen close to Haswell on a per core basis.
Given that Zen hasn't even taped out yet (AMD says it takes about 12 months from tape out to release, a schedule AMD has never once met on a new design), and that Haswell is coming up on 3 years old soon, I don't think even the rosiest projections for Zen are looking good at this point. Matching the performance of what will be a 4 year old processor when Zen is finally released isn't exactly brag-worthy, and Zen is pretty unlikely to meet that level of performance.