Apple’s Runaway Growth Is Waning

Megalith

Megalith

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What do you think Apple can do to keep growth up, aside from resurrecting or cloning Jobs?

With sales increases of Apple’s prime product, the iPhone, projected to decelerate, and no clear new blockbuster device on the horizon, the era of the company’s producing 50 or 60 percent annual revenue growth may be on the wane. When Apple reports earnings on Tuesday, investors will be scouring the results for signs of how fast that downshift is happening.
 
iPhone has basically reached saturation in most developed markets. It will tread water or slightly decline in market share. Not real helpful in growing company revenue.
 
Ah the capitalist expectation of endless growth, as if market saturation doesn't exist.
 
Just needs some marketing.

Now, that is more worrisome is a couple years back now Apple fired the marketing firm with whom they were with for many, many years and which brought them to where they are today.
 
JayteeBates said:
iPhone has basically reached saturation in most developed markets. It will tread water or slightly decline in market share. Not real helpful in growing company revenue.
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Yup, gotten to the point similar to PCs in that a better one isn't really that noticeably different. Only so far you can ride that "make in thinner" bandwagon"
 
I dunno. They only have $200 billion in cash to figure it out. I recommend panic selling the stock and buying Tesla.
 
There products are boring and samey and no longer the worth the 'extra' people paid for them.

Just run out of ideas.

Apple will be in a tough place to justify the cost for an iPhone going forward. So too will Samsung.
 
But yet every generation of iPhone outsells the last, does it not?
 
Well, I hate to say it, but Jobs was the real brains behind their success. He was a terrible person and self-obsessed megalomaniac, but god-damn did he know how to make a marketable product. That's the thing, Jobs-era apple products weren't 'innovative', they were 'marketable'.

Now Apple products are just like Microsoft and Google products in the fact that they go through incremental, small, expected updates with no real reason to upgrade other than 'lighter/faster'. 'Lighter/Faster' is great, but it's not what makes people line-up around the block to throw away their 8-month-old phones to spend four figures on a new product.
 
What new product have they released in the last 5 years? Slight revisions to the iPad, iPhone, MacBook Air (now just called MacBook), they don't have any new products and other phone manufacturers are constantly coming up with new and better products. Phones that are cheaper or faster or have larger screens. Apple needs to pull a hail Mary if they want to reverse this trend.
 
So everyone is really surprised to learn that what goes up, will eventually come back down. They have been doing nothing but copying the shit out of everyone, putting it in a shiny box and adding a zero to the price tag.

I never cared for old jobsey boy... but if they want to get out of their rut and be the star again, they need to figure out what people want before they people themselves even know it.
 
Mut1ny said:
But yet every generation of iPhone outsells the last, does it not?
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Main reason the 6 & 6 plus sold so well, was the huge pent up demand for a larger screen. That also accounts for many of the people switching from android to iPhones. These are people who previously had an iPhones, but switch to android to get a larger screen. Then they switched back when the 6 & 6plus came out.

From what I've been reading, the 6s and 6s plus are not selling as well as expected, and some people are still buying the older 6 & 6 plus since they are cheaper.

Guess we'll just have to wait until they release the numbers this week.
 
Mut1ny said:
But yet every generation of iPhone outsells the last, does it not?
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Yeah so does the Toyota Corolla. Doesn't mean its the best you can buy.

The iPhone is the Toyota Corolla of the phone world.

Reliable but boring and doesn't take any imagination to make the decision to purchase.
 
Amazed that in this day and age there isnt even the option to but a Mac or Macbook in red or blue or green?

Just boring same old.

Lets all take a guess at what the 2016/2017 and 2018 Macbook Pros will look like shall we?

Maybe one less port on each model. Way to let design principles paint yourself into a corner Apple
 
Mut1ny said:
But yet every generation of iPhone outsells the last, does it not?
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If you can tap into a new market, you can continue growth for a while. Problem is, one of the biggest growing markets for the iPhone is having their own economic struggles (China).
 
daglesj said:
There products are boring and samey and no longer the worth the 'extra' people paid for them.

Just run out of ideas.

Apple will be in a tough place to justify the cost for an iPhone going forward. So too will Samsung.
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Been reading that basic paragraph, usually ending with "Apple Is Dead", for 30 years now.
 
Apple was all but dead in the late 1990's, until Microsoft gave them a bunch of money to stay afloat, and then they rehired Steve Jobs. Without Steve Jobs, the Apple culture cannot be sustained. Though the decline will take much longer this time around, Tim Cook is not going to drive them forward as a company, and they will soon be as relevant on the computing scene as they were 20 years ago.
 
TechLarry said:
Been reading that basic paragraph, usually ending with "Apple Is Dead", for 30 years now.
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No Apple is far from dead and I hope they stick around.

I think they need to have another 're-birth' or 'regeneration' as this current one is pretty much spent.

Dump Cook and Ive they are bankrupt creatively.
 
Mut1ny said:
But yet every generation of iPhone outsells the last, does it not?
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Depends on how you look at it. Globally? Yes, so far. The last version in the US? I don't believe so. At least they have had quarters of negative growth. The global numbers they got by selling in China. If bringing a billion plus potential customers online can't get you some growth, you are FUBAR.

Nobody cares about revenue, especially on a stock that pays $2 of dividends on a stock price over $100.

And Jobs or not Jobs, they had been unable to find the next big thing since the iphone. The Ipad wasn't it.
 
Apple is a little more design centric with Jobs gone and not as good at identifying "new worlds to conquer" ... that doesn't mean they can't regain that with one of their execs or an exec from another company ... if apple wants to stay in electronics and media consumption there are still plenty of growth areas they could pursue ... set top boxes like Apple TV and Roku, video gaming, home automation, health electronics, etc

With the big chunk of cash they are sitting on I wouldn't write them off just yet ... that is a lot of money to buy your way into a market or R&D your way to the top of one
 
Apple is obviously going no where and I'm imagining that it's financial report coming February 1st will be great. The iPhone was no doubt a holiday hit, Mac sales saw an uptick and with the iPad Pro will the iPad line will probably see it's first year over year quarter uptick in a couple of years.

I think Apple, like all of the big tech companies, just doesn't know where to go next in tech. I think Apple getting into the car business is simply a matter of diversifying into higher-end tech as personal consumer tech becomes sort of, meh.

On the computing side, it will be interesting to see where the 2 in 1 market goes and it Apple will ever get into merging iOS and OS X on its devices. For now they are saying no but Apple routinely will dismiss something and then get into the market anyway when the market trends become clear.
 
It's impossible to always keep going up without expanding to new markets....at some point you saturate.
 
Apple Car - You'll have to buy a new one as soon as the parts fail or the warranty runs out.

Or they change the wheel nuts every 18 months.
 
Apple rarely blazes new territory. There strategy is to typical enter after the competitors have been there a while and took some lumps along the way. (Smart phones, watches, etc).
They also only enter markets where they think they can make a premium profit. Even though they have about 13% smartphone market share worldwide, I believe they are making something along the lines of 70% of the profits? (If I weren't lazy, I could search for this and share the URL).
Apple Watch - I would say it's one of the best smart watches out. However, I find the smart watch category kind of pointless. They are another annoying device I have to charge, get updates for, etc. Do they benefit me? Not really.
Apple TV. I have the latest one. It's nice enough, but is it better than my Roku 3? IMHO, not really. In fact, I can't watch Amazon Video with it. It can run apps, but I don't care. I have an Xbox 360, PS4, and even better - a gaming PC. Why would I run a crappy iOS port on an Apple TV? Boring.
I still have some money invested in Apple. It's done well over the time I've had it (recent slump has not been fun, but I'm still up from when I bought it). They need to do something. Not sure what.
 
Oh noes, they can't grow at 40-50% annually, DUMP THE STOCK!! Ignore the fact that their P/E is ~11 and their PEG is 0.25.

Garbage company, only growing revenues 25% annually... :rolleyes:
 
Hold on to your seats with earnings release tomorrow 1/26/2016. All recent products from Apple Watch to iPod Pro, 12" Macbook, Apple TV, etc. have been duds and the head of Apple Car just jumped ship. Apple has been riding on one product, iPhone, but that's starting to fizzle too.
 
mi7chy said:
Hold on to your seats with earnings release tomorrow 1/26/2016. All recent products from Apple Watch to iPod Pro, 12" Macbook, Apple TV, etc. have been duds and the head of Apple Car just jumped ship. Apple has been riding on one product, iPhone, but that's starting to fizzle too.
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I'm expecting strong numbers for the iPhone and Mac and a rebound of the iPad with the iPad Pro.
 
kbrickley said:
Apple is a little more design centric with Jobs gone and not as good at identifying "new worlds to conquer" ... that doesn't mean they can't regain that with one of their execs or an exec from another company ... if apple wants to stay in electronics and media consumption there are still plenty of growth areas they could pursue ... set top boxes like Apple TV and Roku, video gaming, home automation, health electronics, etc

With the big chunk of cash they are sitting on I wouldn't write them off just yet ... that is a lot of money to buy your way into a market or R&D your way to the top of one
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The problem is it needs to be a market with growth. When they dropped the iphone, there was a truly massive market with very few smartphone owners out there by comparison.

Apple TV? As a device, there are tons of competitors cutting the margins thin as hell. There only way in there is to be a cable alternative, and they can't make the licensing happen with that so far. No large, rapid growth potential without busting big cable. At that point, apple isn't the 800lb gorilla anymore.

video gaming? Yeah, we are at peak gaming. At best, "my thing plays games" is a bullet point feature, not a killer app. If you mean making them, well that market is.... um... saturated is probably an understatement.

Home automation? Unless they want to make every home item you might want ot automate, that would mean cooperation and common standards. Apple may wind up there, but they usually have to be dragged kicking and screaming. So odds of leading the market there? Nil. If there is even a lot of money to be made, which is questionable.


Health electronics? Like fitbit? Too late to see big numbers and they are putting it in their phone and watch. That's done. Like hospital equipment? Unlikely, and not a huge growth field. Possibility of buying one's way in for regular cash flow, but apple isn't that desperate. Phones will do that for a while and are easier.

In car computing isn't the wrong place to be. Lots of cars sold, essentially none have good infotainement centers, and pairing with phones make sense. But it's cars, so NOTHING happens quickly and margins are slim.
 
They are still growing, just slowing down.

They don't have anything exciting anymore, though. The iPhone was awesome when it was first released. iPad was great. But, what is there to differentiate them from any other device? iOS? App library? Who cares. They need to do something that gets people talking, and gets people excited, and gets people to line up a week before release.

Not that I care. I don't care much for Apple. Good products, but they aren't anything special. They are average in a huge saturated market. They need to be op top again, and not do this "mediocre" BS.
 
mi7chy said:
Hold on to your seats with earnings release tomorrow 1/26/2016. All recent products from Apple Watch to iPod Pro, 12" Macbook, Apple TV, etc. have been duds and the head of Apple Car just jumped ship. Apple has been riding on one product, iPhone, but that's starting to fizzle too.
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You've been predicting this wrongly for the past 2+ years, keep trying though.
 
Apple is becoming Sony, as in, 30 years from now they will be Sony today.

Basically, they are transitioning from a start up to a mature company. They won't have the amazing growth or profits from the past, but they aren't going to disappear either. They will continue to mature, and maybe, if they pick up another Steve Job's like leader, they might start acting like a startup again.

They picked the same market philosophy that Sony did in the 70's through to the mid 2000's. High end proprietary systems that outclassed the immediate competitors.

The problem is, proprietary systems only work while the number of competitors is small, or the system itself is a new market (the iPhone originally). As competition heats up, and more products enter the market, problems grow for the proprietary system(s). Ancillary devices becoming increasingly attractive and almost always work better on the open systems, and to get the true benefit of the proprietary system, you have to buy everything in that family.

Apple will start to feel that pinch, as they have generally reached market saturation, they will lose customers looking to use functions that don't exist or are not as accessible on Apple products. Slowly over time their market penetration will dissipate, but their cash pretty much guarantees they will be around for a long time to come.

What they need to do is either adopt a mainstream approach and fully become a mature company, or recapture that startup phase with RnD and new products. The problem with Apple, they don't compete well in existing markets, they are better at exploiting new markets. Thus I don't think the car (like the TV) will be their next big driver.
 
raz-0 said:
Apple TV? As a device, there are tons of competitors cutting the margins thin as hell. There only way in there is to be a cable alternative, and they can't make the licensing happen with that so far. No large, rapid growth potential without busting big cable. At that point, apple isn't the 800lb gorilla anymore.

video gaming? Yeah, we are at peak gaming. At best, "my thing plays games" is a bullet point feature, not a killer app. If you mean making them, well that market is.... um... saturated is probably an understatement.
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I agree, I have 3 ATV3's in the house and no desire to replace them yet. The "App" stuff is a gimmick in my opinion....and on the Apple forums, there is not much interest in the ATV4. I think 4K compatibility on the ATV as well as through iTunes would have been a HUGE selling feature....but I'm sure that will require some significant instructure changes they aren't will to implement yet.

In car computing isn't the wrong place to be. Lots of cars sold, essentially none have good infotainement centers, and pairing with phones make sense. But it's cars, so NOTHING happens quickly and margins are slim.
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This is actually the thing I am most interested in. Finally having standardized interfaces across cars would be a god send for most people. Plus being able to upgrade features over time (through the iDevice software) would be great for the consumer. And with Google requiring car makers to spy on the customer in exechange for free Android radio's, I think Apple could drive the point home.
 
Kor said:
Ah the capitalist expectation of endless growth, as if market saturation doesn't exist.
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Here is the classic 5% growth year on year graph. It makes sense at first, but you can see it eventually becomes impossible. Yet every single person in management will tell that 5% growth year on year is completely reasonable.

5_percent_growth.gif
 
Lucas Hood said:
I'm an Apple fan and hope the iPhone 7 knocks it out of the park with a new design. I really like the direction of some of the top Android phones.
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But as a consumer what do you really want? It's not lack of innovation that has stagnated, it's a lack of need. You can make the hardware better spec wise....but for what? There is gong to have to be a substantial shift in usage in order for the next big thing to happen.
 
As an iPhone user, I just wait and upgrade every 2 years. I went from the iPhone 4 to an iPhone 6. And in another year I will be upgrading again. If I was an Android user it would be the same. As for the other Apple products, I have used a few. Apple TV is great but not game breaking at this point. I have one for my parents at their house. For them it is a godsend. Simple user interface and a very simple remote. I use 2 mac mini's to stream media content to tv's in my house. At some point I will upgrade them. But the need to upgrade equipment in a house is becoming less and less.

This is true across the board. TV's, stereos, PC's, etc.
 
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