"Windows is dead" - again, now Microsoft is dead too

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Quartz-1

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SemiAccurate.com article here.

He argues that by putting the Modern / Metro UI on desktop Windows Microsoft have killed Windows, and that Windows Phone 7 killed the Windows Phone side, and thus they've killed themselves.

While he's got a point about Windows 8 on the desktop, I think he's ignoring the now extended refresh cycles for the desktop. Companies don't need to buy new PCs. A PC 5 years old is perfectly adequate for most office type tasks. Remember that that's an Intel Core 2 Duo or Quad. And Socket 775 came in 2006, so even 8 years old PCs are still up to scratch. Just make sure they've got enough RAM. Indeed, processor clock frequency hasn't changed much since 2006, getting a bit over 3 GHz (overclocking aside). Bring the RAM up to 1 - 2 GB, add in a second monitor and many people will be far more productive than they would be with a faster PC. No need to spend money on a new PC and new Windows license.
 
Pretty much any pc with Core 2 or better and 4GB of RAM is fine for 99% of business work. Upgrades used to be a 3 yr cycle, then a 5 yr cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see that stretched to 8 or 10 years now.

MS still has the enterprise side locked up. There is nothing even close to AD for managing tens of thousands of machines. Analysts only care about sales numbers today and don't really look at the long term picture.
 
"Windows is dead" is about as ridiculous a claim as the windows 8 fanfare we heard from the marketing companies prior to it's release.

Windows, and MS, aren't going anywhere. At worst, the windows 8 fiasco is a humbling experience for them. I hope management actually *learns* from it.
 
Yikes, that's one massive clickbait article :eek:

darkpaw said:
Pretty much any pc with Core 2 or better and 4GB of RAM is fine for 99% of business work. Upgrades used to be a 3 yr cycle, then a 5 yr cycle. I wouldn't be surprised to see that stretched to 8 or 10 years now.
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. The extended upgrade cycle is exactly the reason Microsoft is making efforts to push both an app-store and a subscription-based model. It makes sure they continue to have a revenue stream even when people take 8+ years between hardware (and Windows version) upgrades. A subscription model also creates an incentive for people to stay up-to-date.
 
Unknown-One said:
A subscription model also creates an incentive for people to stay up-to-date.
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I HATE this idea. Subscription based software (Office 365, possible future of Windows), but for some users, it does make sense. As long as it's transferable to a different PC (user based, not machine based). Like someone mentioned, the only time some people upgrade their OS is when they buy a new PC. Windows Update handles the updates for a while, so they are good there.

Office 365 changed my opinion on the subscription model. I do like that I can load up an old copy of Office (95-2010) and have it just work, but without the latest features. But, if you like to be up to date, it makes sense to have a subscription model. Same with Windows. If you're always updating to the latest OS, why not a subscription model?
 
Quartz-1 said:
No need to spend money on a new PC and new Windows license.
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I'm not defending his argument, but it's worth pointing out that your counter-argument is "there's no need to buy Windows". In sense, you're actually making his argument.
 
pxc said:
lol @ taking Charlie seriously.
Click to expand...

Actually, the reason Microsoft is getting bashed is because it's breaking out of the "cage" of being a business-only OS by trying to move to tablets, slates, and other more consumer (not business-targeted) form-factors - and there is massive pushback.

Tablets, slates, and other non-desktop formfactors of computing are selling - what isn't selling is the traditional desktop formfactor. The problem with Windows is that traditional form-factors are what it has habitually sold - and succeeded - on. A pointing-device-centric UX has been at the core of the Windows UX for all that time - however, it matches up poorly (in fact, not really at all), with the "hot" non-traditional form-factor. (Even the critics of ModernUI admit this.) However, those same critics can't accept any move away from that pointing-device-centric UX - it's too different. It's not that a non-pointing-device-centric UX doesn't work with pointing devices - how many folks use mice, trackpads, or other pointing devices with Android or iOS? However, Microsoft is taking Windows out of their "comfort zone". It's basically "who moved my cheese" - operating systems division.

In fact, a similarly raucous debate is going on concerning Valve's SteamOS - and for pretty much the same reasons. For the desktop portion of SteamOS, Valve chose GNOME 3.x - which makes for a great ten-foot UX - which is a compliment to Big-Picture Mode. The screams have been rather loud, and the push is quite hard for a more pointing-device-centric DE - basically, anything BUT GNOME 3.x. It's not that you can't use a pointing device with GNOME 3.x - that's not the issue. What the issue is - is that GNOME 3.x is not centered around the pointing device, unlike most other desktop environments. Even though they are quite aware that a pointing-device-centric UI/UX is a bad fit, that's what they want - nothing less will suffice. Screw logic OR neutrality.

It reminds me of the arguments in favor of segregation in the South (United States) or apartheid - and we all know how ugly THOSE got.
 
PGHammer said:
Actually, the reason Microsoft is getting bashed is because it's breaking out of the "cage" of being a business-only OS
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All releases of Windows since XP, a good dozen years, have been dual role consumer and business operating systems. Windows 8.x is mostly unwanted by businesses, but it is being marketed to that huge segment. When moving into limited consumer electronics, MS just blew it with Windows Phone and Windows RT, and caused a whole lot of trouble with business users when trying a desktop-tablet convergence in Windows 8.x.

Not really sure what your mostly irrelevant argle-barle is really about otherwise.
 
Ur_Mom said:
I HATE this idea. Subscription based software (Office 365, possible future of Windows), but for some users, it does make sense. As long as it's transferable to a different PC (user based, not machine based). Like someone mentioned, the only time some people upgrade their OS is when they buy a new PC. Windows Update handles the updates for a while, so they are good there.

Office 365 changed my opinion on the subscription model. I do like that I can load up an old copy of Office (95-2010) and have it just work, but without the latest features. But, if you like to be up to date, it makes sense to have a subscription model. Same with Windows. If you're always updating to the latest OS, why not a subscription model?
Click to expand...

Openoffice subscription is much cheaper and you get free upgrades for the rest of your life. Much better deal than O365 lol.

I used the new outlook on one of our clients. I don't know what tech it uses but it was absolutely horrible! Every keystroke came with a visible lag.
 
wonderfield said:
I'm not defending his argument, but it's worth pointing out that your counter-argument is "there's no need to buy Windows". In sense, you're actually making his argument.
Click to expand...

Not at all. You're going one step too far. There is no alternative for most people to Office, thus there is no alternative to Windows. But they don't need to upgrade, so the choose to not upgrade.
 
idiot said:
That said IDC claims Windows tablets hit 7.5 million units in 2013. If you assume the tablet market is only as large as the PC market, ie 315 million units total in 2013, that would mean Windows has about 2.4% tablet marketshare. If the tablet market is a more realistic 400 million units, the numbers come in a bit below 1.9%. IDC’s prediction for PC sales in 2017 are 305.1 million PC units with 39.3 million or 12.9%, being tablets. Tablets are still growing by massive numbers so we will leave it up to the reader to figure out what they feel is an appropriate number to use for 2017. 400M is 9.9%, 500M is 7.9%, 600M is 6.6% etc.
Click to expand...

Wow. Did he do all that hard hitting research in his ass? One sentence he claims the current tablet market is >= the current PC market. A few sentences later he says IDC predicts PC sales will still dwarf tablet sales. What is he smoking?
 
B00nie said:
Openoffice subscription is much cheaper and you get free upgrades for the rest of your life. Much better deal than O365 lol.

I used the new outlook on one of our clients. I don't know what tech it uses but it was absolutely horrible! Every keystroke came with a visible lag.
Click to expand...

Open Office is inferior, sorry.
 
chinesepiratefood said:
Wow. Did he do all that hard hitting research in his ass? One sentence he claims the current tablet market is >= the current PC market. A few sentences later he says IDC predicts PC sales will still dwarf tablet sales. What is he smoking?
Click to expand...

If he's so smart, why hasn't he shorted 1000000 shares of Microsoft stock and become a millionaire yet? Oh right, because despite everything these 'genius' analysts and journalists like to say, Microsoft's market cap keeps going up, not down. None of these 'doom and gloom for Microsoft' analysts are ever willing to put their money where their mouth is and short Microsoft stock, because none of them like what the poverty line looks like.

Imagine a world where journalists and analysts actually know what they're talking about...Sounds like a very different place to me.
 
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Quartz-1 said:
Not at all. You're going one step too far. There is no alternative for most people to Office, thus there is no alternative to Windows. But they don't need to upgrade, so the choose to not upgrade.
Click to expand...
I think you mistook my meaning. I'm suggesting that — however it comes about, whether due to distaste of the product or a lack of need of the product — people not buying a company's products 'kills' the company (or, in a non-clickbait-headline-type situation, 'hurts'). And that product is Windows. Whether it's not being bought due to lack of need or due to distaste doesn't really impact the end result.

Worth pointing out, however, that Windows 8 is not selling particularly poorly according to the figures I've seen.
 
Dogs said:
If he's so smart, why hasn't he shorted 10000 shares of Microsoft stock and become a millionaire yet? Oh right, because despite everything these 'genius' analysts and journalists like to say, Microsoft's market cap keeps going up, not down. None of these 'doom and gloom for Microsoft' analysts are ever willing to put their money where their mouth is and short Microsoft stock, because none of them like what the poverty line looks like.

Imagine a world where journalists and analysts actually know what they're talking about...Sounds like a very different place to me.
Click to expand...

Oh he's not an analyst.
 
Microsoft suree as hell isn't dead but they've made missteps with Windows 8 and the Xbone. There is a lot of backend to business software the public doesn't see and their support there is slick. I have newfound respect for Microsoft from a business perspective but Windows 8 in its stock form is not suitable for a desktop/notebook period. Now they've decided to make Photos and Camera apps integral to explorer.exe in 8.1? Fuckin' A now I have to re-associate each image format to Windows Photo Viewer by hand every time I install it.
 
PGHammer said:
Actually, the reason Microsoft is getting bashed is because it's breaking out of the "cage" of being a business-only OS by trying to move to tablets, slates, and other more consumer (not business-targeted) form-factors - and there is massive pushback.

Tablets, slates, and other non-desktop formfactors of computing are selling - what isn't selling is the traditional desktop formfactor. The problem with Windows is that traditional form-factors are what it has habitually sold - and succeeded - on. A pointing-device-centric UX has been at the core of the Windows UX for all that time - however, it matches up poorly (in fact, not really at all), with the "hot" non-traditional form-factor. (Even the critics of ModernUI admit this.) However, those same critics can't accept any move away from that pointing-device-centric UX - it's too different. It's not that a non-pointing-device-centric UX doesn't work with pointing devices - how many folks use mice, trackpads, or other pointing devices with Android or iOS? However, Microsoft is taking Windows out of their "comfort zone". It's basically "who moved my cheese" - operating systems division.

In fact, a similarly raucous debate is going on concerning Valve's SteamOS - and for pretty much the same reasons. For the desktop portion of SteamOS, Valve chose GNOME 3.x - which makes for a great ten-foot UX - which is a compliment to Big-Picture Mode. The screams have been rather loud, and the push is quite hard for a more pointing-device-centric DE - basically, anything BUT GNOME 3.x. It's not that you can't use a pointing device with GNOME 3.x - that's not the issue. What the issue is - is that GNOME 3.x is not centered around the pointing device, unlike most other desktop environments. Even though they are quite aware that a pointing-device-centric UI/UX is a bad fit, that's what they want - nothing less will suffice. Screw logic OR neutrality.

It reminds me of the arguments in favor of segregation in the South (United States) or apartheid - and we all know how ugly THOSE got.
Click to expand...
That's what my coworker says, the developers of Windows 8 are in some kind of bubble where they rarely interact with desktops and envision the entire market of .... desktops and notebooks using....tablets? The least they could do is have a parallel desktop-tailored version with all of the improvement 8 has over 7 because I know from personal experience, feedback directly from large corporate clientele, that it is not being adopted so well. 9 out of 10 request that I install Classic Shell for them. Changes they have made also make it more difficult to troubleshoot like disabling F8 for safe mode and a frowny face instead of dump data for the BSoD.
 
Those silly articles come out at least 3-4 times per year. Windows market share may drop a few percentage points on the desktop market due to their bungling of Windows though they are still the dominant desktop operating system and people are not migrating to Apple in droves like I'd hope though Microsoft is gaining some share in the Mobile space with Surface and Windows phones.

To say Windows and Microsoft is dead is absolute foolishness.
 
shade91 said:
To say Windows and Microsoft is dead is absolute foolishness.
Click to expand...

Why is that foolish? The PC is dead, too. At least the article that hits about every month says so (for the past couple decades). PC is dead, Windows is dead, Microsoft is dead.... :rolleyes: Analysts. Spew the BS.
 
Ur_Mom said:
Why is that foolish? The PC is dead, too. At least the article that hits about every month says so (for the past couple decades). PC is dead, Windows is dead, Microsoft is dead.... :rolleyes: Analysts. Spew the BS.
Click to expand...
LOL true, I was starting to see it when I got a tablet and smart phone that kicked ass but the desktop still rules for multitasking and productivity period.
 
If Mico$oft wants to make it in the new pc world they will need to move away from a monopolistic form of thinking. Anyone that has had to price our building a new server can tell you that the price for using micro$oft product is over the top, if you want people to be able to access a share drive that cost money for client access licenses, remote desk top licenses and licenses for email. Right now all mirco$oft can do is nickel and dime people to death which is why people are moving to Linux for server and I believe soon for pc os products. You see that push from Apple (their os is linux base) and Google, (Android again linux base) competition is hurting Micro$oft.
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/open-sour...growing-windows-and-unix-keep-shrinking/10616
I personally believe that is why Steve Ballmer stepped down as CEO, he doesn’t know how to compete against others.
You see this with xbone one nickel and dime for everything, if it weren’t true why would mirco$oft keep their eye on steam? (linux base) gamers I believe will help bring back the pc market I’ve seen this with my cousin who put away his console for a pc so he would play games he bought from steam.
Whatever people may think of Apple it started with this company selling their products with a os built on a linux kernel, google or linux each of those os is now point and click making it easy for people to use thus opening up the market for people to shop rather than have only one choice this has hurt micro$oft.
If you watch the commercials you will see micro$oft pushing office they believe this will save them, I personally don’t believe this will help, there is no reason for people to want to pay 150.00 for office then another 300 for a tablet or laptop that is compatible with office.
If micro$oft wants to compete the incoming CEO must give people a reason for purchasing their products, this starts with price and a reason why they are better than everyone else!
 
If you want to be taken seriously, you should stop referring to Microsoft as micro$oft.
 
wonderfield said:
Worth pointing out, however, that Windows 8 is not selling particularly poorly according to the figures I've seen.
Click to expand...

Yeah I had the general sense that win8 was doing a lot better than people expected it to do considering windows alternately flopped good and bad releases for so long. I tend to naively consider myself and the choices I make as being "mainstream" and when I went win8.1 I figured most of the rest of the mainstream did too. I could obviously be dead wrong with that sort of logic, but I mean how can Windows be dead if every single new consumer and business computer is shipping with windows 8? Gamers are moving to windows 8, too it seems?

Do they have a better handle on the piracy perhaps on this version? I thought they had it locked down at first, but then I saw some reports about it being completely cracked. I'm no longer personally interested in pirating software, but I sure as shit was when I was poor. Win 8 is the first version I've paid retail price for and only the second version I haven't flat out stolen from them.
 
Quartz-1 said:
Really? Or is this MS counting Windows 8 licenses which are downgraded to Windows 7?
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All they need to count is the new OEM computers which are force fed with Win8 on them. Consumers have no choice.

It's like in Iraq, Hussein got 100% of votes lol.
 
Quartz-1 said:
But how many of those get downgraded to Windows 7?
Click to expand...

I'd bet almost 0% of the consumer sales. People really do not want to pay extra or even know the option is there.

And you're right, for sure MS will count any downgrade as both Win8 and Win7 sales :D
 
Quartz-1 said:
Really? Or is this MS counting Windows 8 licenses which are downgraded to Windows 7?
Click to expand...
Microsoft counts licenses sold, yeah. It's the way they've always done it, though, so the numbers are at least comparable on that basis.
 
Dogs said:
Nobody does that, so it really doesn't matter if it's counting that or not.
Click to expand...
This is actually a fairly common practice in corporations. See, MS will sell you the latest and greatest, but you'll have what's called 'downgrade' rights, which many organizations exploit to maintain consistency.
 
XOR != OR said:
This is actually a fairly common practice in corporations. See, MS will sell you the latest and greatest, but you'll have what's called 'downgrade' rights, which many organizations exploit to maintain consistency.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I was referring to consumers, but I can see where that wouldn't be qualified based on my original post.
 
XOR != OR said:
This is actually a fairly common practice in corporations. See, MS will sell you the latest and greatest, but you'll have what's called 'downgrade' rights, which many organizations exploit to maintain consistency.
Click to expand...

How do you count the downgrades though? A machine may come with downgrade rights or a VL customer already has those rights but the machine was probably sold with 8 on it. In any case I think Microsoft has been counting it the same way forever and most people would look at independent market share numbers anyway to get a picture of actual deployments as counting licenses is tricky.
 
heatlesssun said:
How do you count the downgrades though? A machine may come with downgrade rights or a VL customer already has those rights but the machine was probably sold with 8 on it. In any case I think Microsoft has been counting it the same way forever and most people would look at independent market share numbers anyway to get a picture of actual deployments as counting licenses is tricky.
Click to expand...

Certainly there isn't that strong of a correlation between licenses sold and actual market share regardless of downgrade rights, if you're strictly talking about the corporate market. I've been with more than a couple companies who have bought MAK keys with enough licenses to last them 3 years. So they may have 10,000 licenses, but for the first year only 4,000 are being used, and the next year only 8,000 are being used. Certainly companies who buy more than they have the immediate need for aren't going to cause a huge discrepancy, but I could see that swinging the figure by a good 10-15%.
 
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