Analyst: Expect Next Gen Consoles At E3 2013

While we know people like predictions like this, everything this guy said is common knowledge, speculation and plain old guessing. Oops! I forgot, he's an analyst...that's his job.

“E3 2013 will be the most important game conference since Y2K,” and that “we continue to expect both Sony and Microsoft to host dedicated events before E3 to announce their new platforms.” He added: “New console hardware will borrow from high-end PC components, providing hybrid physical/digital distribution models, enhanced voice controls and motion sensing, broad multi-media capabilities and lower launch price points.”

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Article from an analyst.
Credibility level.....zero.

... lower launch price points

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I can't read the article from work but I'd be curious to know why he thinks the price point for new consoles will go anywhere but up?

I am not a console fan so I don't pay much attention to articles about them but haven't ever newly released console had a higher price point then the one it replaced?

I should be an analyst... Seems like they have an easy job.

I really don't think the next Xbox or Playstation will be launching this year. More likely they'll be announced this year and released next holiday season. Microsoft didn't announce the Xbox 360 at E3 either, so there's no guarentee they'll do that this time either.

Suddenly, I realized I am very interested in getting back into PC gaming. Coincidentally, I just bought a decent gaming laptop.

I can't read the link since it is blocked at work but wouldn't Sony and MS be better served to have their own events well ahead of E3 or in the Fall (before the holiday season launches) ... you don't really get the big announcements in the trade shows as much anymore ... you really get better bang for the buck with the standalone events

I hear either microsoft or sony or both may show something at GDC (last week of march)

http://www.fudzilla.com/home/item/30122-next-gen-consoles-be-revealed-sooner-than-we-think

Evidence, fuckface, evidence!

Example of evidence along with a prediction: The consoles will likely be delayed a little due to 4k or proper UHD screens. As these screens may become more prevalent in the next few years there will be a desire to have equipment which can make use of it. One of the issues with the Xbox was the lack of HDMI connector. So they'd might wait it out a bit for either an update to the HDMI standard or something.

Borrowing high end PC components, that will be outclassed a month later.

THIS JUST IN! --- per my analysis, calendars next year should have 12 months, most likely contain 52 weeks, and insiders are telling me the first month's title begins with a J - ..... =0 !

DeathPrincess said:

Evidence, fuckface, evidence!

Example of evidence along with a prediction: The consoles will likely be delayed a little due to 4k or proper UHD screens. As these screens may become more prevalent in the next few years there will be a desire to have equipment which can make use of it. One of the issues with the Xbox was the lack of HDMI connector. So they'd might wait it out a bit for either an update to the HDMI standard or something.

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HDMI has been able to handle 4k res for awhile. The lack of an HDMI connector on the Xbox wasn't an issue. Games on consoles rarely render above 720p. Some actually don't even render in HD. The 1080p option on the 360 merely uses internal ATI scalers which produce inferior results compared to the scalers in modern HDTVs.

What really matters is that game developers might start targeting making games more toward DX11 graphics than DX9.

face2palm said:

Article from an analyst.
Credibility level.....zero.

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everyone with experience has known since BEFORE last year's E3 that it would be E3 2013 that would have the new consoles. not just talking out my butt either. when analysts say this now, they are not guessing, they know.

LastQuestion said:

HDMI has been able to handle 4k res for awhile. The lack of an HDMI connector on the Xbox wasn't an issue. Games on consoles rarely render above 720p. Some actually don't even render in HD. The 1080p option on the 360 merely uses internal ATI scalers which produce inferior results compared to the scalers in modern HDTVs.

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That and many games on the 360 and PS3 don't even render at 720p either. We're looking at 540p (960x540) then doubled to 1920x1080. Or, some other inane resolution. And, most games don't use MSAA or fake it, especially when the resolution is 720p or 1080p and the game either uses AA or not to maintain framerates.

bAMtan2 said:

everyone with experience has known since BEFORE last year's E3 that it would be E3 2013 that would have the new consoles. not just talking out my butt either. when analysts say this now, they are not guessing, they know.

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I mentioned about a year ago that if we go by the average lifespan of a game console, then the followup console for the PS3 or 360 should be around Christmas 2013 (earliest) or 2014 (latest).

And, both new consoles-- Xbox Durango or whatever and PS4-- may use current technology that's already released to market and has its priced dropped. We cannot expect something as exotic as a Radeon 7000 or 8000 series as the GPU in these consoles. Assuming both Microsoft and Sony began research into a next-gen console a year or two after the 360's and PS3's release, we're looking at minimum a Radeon 4000 to at most a Radeon 6000 in either console. Nintendo went with either a Radeon 4000 or 5000 series, low end or mid-range part for the Wii U. So, that's one indication of what GPU may be in the next Microsoft and Sony consoles.

This is also assuming that rumors that both Microsoft and Sony are going to use an AMD-based GPU. Surmising that Microsoft may use DirectX 11 in their next console, that leaves either a Radeon 5000 or 6000-series based GPU. As for Sony, very unlikely they'll use DirectX API in their next console. So it's going to be OpenGL that has features on par with DirectX 11. Therefore, we're looking at OpenGL 4.0 and higher-- Radeon 5000 or 6000 series GPU.

As for the processor, that's rather difficult to figure out. The 360 currently uses three PPE cores with two threads per core running at 3.2 GHz. For the 360 to maintain backwards compatibility, it either needs at minimum a POWER6 or POWER7-based processor or another PPE-based processor. Most likely they'll increase the number of PPE cores from three to four, six or eight. Multiply the core counts by two and you'll have the total number of possible threads of the processor-- eight, twelve or sixteen. Sixteen threads would be competitive to the rumored 16-core CELL from a year or two ago. The operating frequency would most likely remain at 3.2 GHz regardless.

For the PS3, similar situation. The current PS3 CELL processor is a single PPE and six SPEs. Remember, one PPE is disabled. That's eight threads total if counting the co-processor-like capabilities of the SPE units. If Sony wants to keep costs down, they either need to eliminate the CELL processor, switch to an AMD processor, or base their next processor off either a POWER6 or POWER7 processor using the latest version of PowerISA. If not, they may increase the core count of the CELL processor. The CELL in the PS3 is known to be a floating point powerhouse but wasn't as powerful as the 360 in terms of non-mathematical data. Most likely the PPE and SPE core count will increase if they retain the CELL processor. One old rumor pointed to a 16-core CELL, or in other words, double the amount of the current PS3's CELL. I would assume twelve SPEs and two to four PPE units.

Now, if the other rumor that the PS4 and Xbox NEXT will use an AMD-based processor or APU of some kind, then that kills off backwards-compatibility. That leaves both Sony and Microsoft having to use double the hardware in their next consoles similar to the first PS3 console if they wish to maintain backwards-compatibility. This would make the consoles both expensive and large unless some magic of miniaturization and integration happens. I can probably see that happen with Microsoft's console given that the Xbox Slim uses a single chip for the GPU and CPU. For Sony, very unlikely unless they want to repeat history with another expensive console sold at a high loss like the first PS3 unit. And, given that Sony has been bleeding money for the past several years, unlikely they will take a large risk on the next console. So, Sony has a couple options to not have losses again:

• AMD APU with a Radeon 5000 or 6000 series-based GPU. Costs of the console remain lower than the PS3 was at launch, but no backwards compatibility.
• Double the core count of the current CELL to maintain backwards compatibility. Costs of the console will be close to the first PS3 at launch, but given a mature manufacturing process compared to 2005 or 2006, it should be cheaper to build.

An AMD APU with a Radeon 5000 or 6000 series-based GPU on-die would fit well in the assumption that the next consoles will be both affordable and use the latest in graphical effects from either DX 11 or OpenGL 4.x. You just won't have backwards compatibility.

There has been one rumor of Microsoft possibly releasing two different consoles. One console is a lower-end model or a dedicated set-top box with Xbox Live for gaming (XBLA) and media (Xbox Music, movies and TV shows). It would also be diskless. The second console would be a higher end, more expensive model with either double-hardware for backwards compatibility or a single hardware with an upgraded version of the 360's original processor.

As for RAM total, given that Nintendo's Wii U is 1GB total of DDR3 1066 MHz RAM split evenly between the GPU and system, both Sony's and Microsoft's will be higher than that. I would not be surprised we see something as high as 2GB or 4GB of RAM in either console.

1GB of RAM dedicated to the GPU is the bare minimum for full screen 1080p gameplay. 2GB of RAM dedicated to the GPU would even be better. That all depends on the GPU now. If you can figure out what graphics cards on the desktop computer can run a game at 2x to 4x AA, 1080p resolution, medium to high settings with medium to high resolution textures at constant 30 FPS to 60 FPS constant, and you WILL HAVE FIGURED OUT the next GPU in the next consoles. And, remember: It HAS to be Radeon 5000 or 6000-series based with at least 1GB of VRAM for the GPU. You'll have to eliminate high-end models though for power usage reasons. Therefore, Radeon 5800 and 6900 series GPUs are out. That leaves Radeon 5700-series (least likely) and very likely 6800-series as the highest available GPU in either console.

If Sony sticks with Nvidia, it is either a Geforce 460 or 470 highest, or 560 or 570 highest as the basis of their next console's GPU. Again, that GPU must be able to maintain constant 30 FPS to 60 FPS at 1080p maximum resolution, with 2x to 4x AA minimum.

Neither console will have 2k or 4k display capabilities for gaming. Movies and TV shows, if 2k or 4k content is made available in a few more years, is a VERY SMALL possibility but very unlikely either Microsoft or Sony will tout that as a feature or include 2k or 4k display capability. I will be surprised if that's mentioned as a feature come E3 2013.

Since the PS3 used 256MB of RAM dedicated to the GPU and another 256MB for the system, I would assume something similar would happen in the PS4. First option is looking at GDDR3 or GDDR4 for the GPU, and XDR or XDR2 for the system. Second option if to keep costs down is GDDR3 or GDDR4 for GPU and DDR3 for the system. At minimum, again, is 2GB of total system RAM.

For the Xbox NEXT, because the 360 used a 512MB unified shared memory, I would assume Microsoft would move to dedicated memory for both the GPU and system just for performance reasons. The 360 used GDDR3 memory, it'll most likely do one of two things:

• Switch to DDR3 memory for both GPU and system.
• Dedicate GDDR3 or GDDR4 RAM for the GPU and DDR3 for the system.

Again, no less than 2GB total RAM in the console. 8GB as rumored on places like NeoGAF is highly unlikely for cost reasons and will most likely be a dev kit. 4GB is a very high possibility as 2GB dedicated to the GPU and 2GB dedicated to the system is even better.

Of course, both consoles will have to use a Bluray drive, even Microsoft will have to bite their lip, hold their head high, and pay royalties and fees to the Bluray body that has Sony as a member to use it in their own console. That or Microsoft goes another route-- proprietary high capacity blue laser based media with or without possible Bluray licensing for BD movie playback.

This is probably assumption I can think of for Microsoft's and Sony's next console.

LastQuestion said:

HDMI has been able to handle 4k res for awhile. The lack of an HDMI connector on the Xbox wasn't an issue. Games on consoles rarely render above 720p. Some actually don't even render in HD. The 1080p option on the 360 merely uses internal ATI scalers which produce inferior results compared to the scalers in modern HDTVs.

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HDMI 1.4 can do 4k, but at 24Hz. Not 60/120. Nor can it do 8k (aka Full UHD).

Full 4k (not yet full UHD) at 60Hz is supposed to be coming with 2.0, sometime in the second half of this year. But thats still currently only halfway, as it neither does 120Hz or UHD resolutions.

Full 8k games are unlikely even with current ultra high end PC hardware, unless it's something pretty basic. But the reason the Xbox lack of HDMI wasn't to do with resolution (component can do 1080p fine) it's to do with compatibility, and the PITAness of not having the universal connector.