Is the Era of Gaming Console Declining?

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
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Predictions have the gaming console industry reaching its peak this year and beginning its inevitable decline. The console is by no means dead, at least not right away, but analysts see the decline as an opportunity for the evolution of the gaming console. But what form it will evolve into is the big question.

Your smartphone is quickly getting to the point where its hardware could display good-looking games in 1080p on your television, and it won’t be long before your phone and TV can sync up without cables.
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Give me a gaming console that can support a keyboard and mouse and I'll forget I even owned a PC.
 
The name "game console" will probably die off since they do so much more these days. And it's only a matter of time until they do proper Live TV and DVR recording in the background such that even if you never want to play a game, you'll be interested in the device.
 
"Gaming aficionados will pay up, they say, because the bigger games are of higher quality."

... Right.

And Starcraft is a higher quality RTS than Sins of a Solar Empire. :rolleyes:

AAA games are messing up the standards here really bad. I f****** hate it when upping the difficulty only involves changing the damage percentages.
 
ITX will be the new ATX, a gaming PC will be smaller than todays consoles and we'll take over.
 
Console gaming will not die, and I think they will still stay as the top gaming platform for awhile. But I don't think they will stay at the top over the long term. Its very possible that they would be surpassed by mobile gaming.

Just like how many of today's young gamer may focus on console only for their gaming needs, I think future generation may focus more on mobile gaming. I mean, it is the most accessible platform because almost everyone need to have a smart phone these days, and tables are on the rise too. So I think eventually the casual crowd will move over there.

Console will stay, just like PC gaming is still around after all these years. It just probably won't be the dominant platform and big publishers will start making games for them, and we get a port on PC and console (just the way many big video game titles today are made for console first, and ported elsewhere.)
 
Few industries are as saturated in bullshit as the gaming industry. They have no clue which direction they really want to head in, they just sniff they wind for money.
 
TheCAD said:
There is more than a keyboard and mouse that separates PC gaming from everything else.
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For us enthusiasts, sure.

For people who don't even change the resolution of their PC games the difference is simply 'well I can use a keyboard and mouse on the pc..'.
 
!@#$%^&*() said:
Give me a gaming console that can support a keyboard and mouse and I'll forget I even owned a PC.
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Because mods, community patches/bug fixes, HD textures, AA/AF, higher resolutions, playing at more than 30fps, etc are just unimportant things.
 
Your smartphone is quickly getting to the point where its hardware could display good-looking games in 1080p on your television
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Umm, I disagree, I disagree extremely... unless they think an upscaled version of Angry Birds is what classifies as a "good looking game"

While I do see a technological limit going towards console games as far as improvement, no way in hell they're going to die out due to smart phones doing the same thing as them. They might die out because people are only interesting in quick-in/out games like Angry Birds mind you.
 
BoogerBomb said:
Who's got a kill it with fire pic?
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48-plan-b-kill-it-with-fire.jpg
 
Doesn't this just mean that even the console gamers are tired of the crap they're churning out?
 
I don't think it's that console gaming is declining, it's that gaming in general is declining.
 
Unless you've been on a deserted island for over a year you probably know that new consoles are around the corner. Might just hurt sales a little bit.

There's a bunch of other reasons. Saturation, economy, etc.
 
I think they will morph into a media center type item but I don't think they will die off ... Game consoles aren't very profitable for the hardware but the software and peripherals can be VERY profitable ... companies won't abandon that easily ... you also have cable companies who need to compete with the 'cut the cord" types. PC Gaming, Console Gaming, and Mobile Gaming haven't killed Board Gaming so I don't see why they would kill each other. Here is how I see the three main gaming markets developing:

- Mobile gaming (tablets, smartphones, etc) should become the dominant mechanism because of the economy of scale, easy cost of entry, and increasing power of the platforms. However, it is really hard to make a profit at it which will keep other more profitable venues alive.

- Console gaming should morph into one aspect of a media center. Smart cable companies will partner with a game console manufacturer to give you a combined DVR/Cablebox/Internet Device/Gaming platform. It is actually a good partnership since it enables additional services to keep people from "cutting the cord" and gives them more features to enable purchases of high speed internet services. Console gaming is also the most profitable for the big publishers so they will not give it up without a fight.

- PC gaming has survived all the previous changes to the gaming landscape and it is still the preferred method for MMO or complex online gaming activities. I think there will be some migration of gaming to laptop type platforms as the desktop becomes more of a niche, but there could still be opportunities for multi-screen gaming or high resolution gaming on the desktop or desktop replacement laptops if the monitor producers are able to get more people in multi-display or high resolution displays (perhaps when OLED becomes more prevalent and cost effective). PC gaming can also be the most profitable for an independent company (especially with new crowdfunding mechanisms to reduce the initial funding risk or cost of entry) so I think they will still use PC as their dominant platform.

Anyhoo ... that's my take on the subject :D
 
jpm100 said:
Unless you've been on a deserted island for over a year you probably know that new consoles are around the corner. Might just hurt sales a little bit.

There's a bunch of other reasons. Saturation, economy, etc.
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Just look at the market. With the majority of the computing world going towards a mobile platform for their basic computing tasks, I think a lot of people are looking for that cheap, quick thrill that they can play on and off. Consoles are still selling more than PCs though, but even the console is declining as well just by looking at sales numbers. The 3DS and PS Vita didn't sell as much as their respective companies wanted when first launched. It's going to be surprising if the Wii U meets Nintendo's sales forecast when it's launched.

I don't think many in this current economy can afford another $300-plus or $400-plus console again, like when the PS3 and 360 were first launched.

It would most likely explain the rumors of why Microsoft and Sony considering an AMD APU of some kind to decrease console costs. The idea of a customized, highly powerful RISC processor based on the Power-architecture is not going to make any console cheap by any means. That is unless serious process reductions and manufacturing costs were reduced, which usually happens a few years after the console is launched. Look at the Wii U's Power 7-based processor. I predicted it would be a four core, two to eight threads per core beast. When seeing the rumored final specs with three cores, I am surprised they cut out so much especially reducing cache size. Then, there are other rumors that the Wii U's GPU is nothing more than off-the-shelf 5600-series Radeon, or even a mobile version of it for heat and power consumption reasons.

New consoles will be coming out indeed, but I don't believe we should expect anything groundbreaking in terms of hardware. Most likely both Sony and Microsoft will go with off-the-shelf parts, probably with AMD as the GPU. The processor is still up in the air at the moment. But, if both companies want their console to sell and be affordable, they will need an affordable and powerful processor. Keep the costs of the console down, make a small profit on it, and make up the rest of the money from games and services they provide through Xbox Live and PSN.

The console we see today and tomorrow is not going to be anything like the NES and Sega systems of days past. They've become more than a gaming console, and that will change into an all-in-one media and entertainment hub. Is it going to hurt PC sales? Most likely. If a normal consumer wanting that cheap thrill and fun entertainment device that can serve other things like music and movies is offered in a sub $300 or $400 console, then they will buy it over a computer. If you think about it, the unifying ecosystem that Windows 8, Windows Phone 8, and Xbox and its Xbox Music and Video services will provide may be a very big indication of what the next Xbox console will be.
 
Radical said:
I don't think it's that console gaming is declining, it's that gaming in general is declining.
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In the past few years the gaming industry has vomited out games as if they're a commodity. Gaming is an art, and should be treated as such. I think that people have gotten sick of the library of games that developers have been offering, but that's not why game consoles are dying.

The gaming industry has to recognize there's two groups of people. The elite and the casual gamer. The elites want graphics and game play, while casual wants something to kill time and relax. The article focus's more on casual gamers, who will likely move towards devices like tablets and smart phones. Elite gamers will stick with consoles and PCs, but ultimately will move onto PCs.

The decline of the console is because people have become smarter shoppers. Windows 8 will be the catalyst for this endeavor, as will Steam. It's the mentality people have towards purchasing software all together, not just games. A game like Skyrim is $60 on something like Xbox 360, which is outdated in graphics and limited from modding. The PC version has sales that drastically drop the price and a thriving community which has heavenly modded the game, and has extended the gameplay of your purchase.

The more interesting effect of all this is going to be the choice of OS people will have. It seems the industry has decided the best way to capitalize on this new frontier is to force an app store to an OS. Something I'm sure those smart consumers won't want. Right now iOS and Windows 8 are forcing consumers to use their built in app store, without any alternative choices. While Android and Linux offer no real limitations as to where you get your apps.
 
I agree, this only applies to the casual gamers; hardcore gamers aren't downgrading to phones and tablets and shit.
 
!@#$%^&*() said:
For us enthusiasts, sure.

For people who don't even change the resolution of their PC games the difference is simply 'well I can use a keyboard and mouse on the pc..'.
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Casuals usually don't post on [H] so one would think the previous poster was an enthusiast.
 
!@#$%^&*() said:
Give me a gaming console that can support a keyboard and mouse and I'll forget I even owned a PC.
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Give me a gaming console with user upgradable components, multi-display output, that can also serve other functions from watching movies, uploading/watching youtube, to editing videos and doing my work, watch TV off of, and has a wide range of peripherals available from TrackIR to my flight simulator pedals and what not, and I'll forget I even owned a PC.

Except that it'd kinda be a PC.

In the era of consolidation, I shouldn't have to own fifty different electronics to do fifty different things, I should be able to do it all on one system, and that kind of flexibility is what makes a PC a PC.

Likewise, I expect my phone to do more than just call people, I want it to be my mobile platform and my GPS etc.

Big powerful desktop with some 3TB drives at home that can do everything including content creation and playing games, and a nice mobile device for streaming and content viewing and navigation for when I'm on the go.
 
Why is decline starting to become synonymous with extinction/death? They aren't the same thing.
 
!@#$%^&*() said:
Give me a gaming console that can support a keyboard and mouse and I'll forget I even owned a PC.
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Obviously someone who hasnt played Skyrim with Steam Workshop. There is nothing on a console that can compare to what a PC can do. KB/mouse is only part of the equation. I had KB/mouse on dreamcast with both UT and QIII. While 'neat' the only real desire to have it so that everyone could be on a level playing field. Thats all KB/mouse on console brings, control parity. You forgo a huge amount of control and flexibility for security and ease of use.
 
I think people will just get tired of gaming until a game thats new and innovative comes out. People are tired of the same stuff over and over. Every shooter now has deathmatch. Its so stale and boring now. Something has to change. Every game is a copy of each other it seems like.
 
Your smartphone is quickly getting to the point where its hardware could display good-looking games in 1080p on your television,
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What? No, it's not. The difference in processing power between a smartphone and a gaming console is substantial. You would also never tolerate a smartphone that generated as much heat as a gaming console puts out, and it would drain the battery in seconds.

Maybe in a decade, a smartphone will be as powerful as a current gaming console. But, maybe not; batteries are starting to run up against the physical limits of their chemistry, That's a real problem. Computers get more efficient, but power requirements have still risen over the years. You could probably make a faster smartphone right now if you didn't have to worry about powering it.

Plus, smartphones don't need all that processing power for any other purpose. So, the majority of them won't have it. You might be able to buy more expensive phones that do, but then you have to wonder what the advantage of a gaming smartphone is over a standalone video console. Even if your smartphone can run AAA games, you'd still have to connect some sort of controller to actually play them. Nothing but a touchscreen is incredibly limiting and only really works for a couple of genres.

So, in the end, a gaming smartphone would have to be plugged in (for power if nothing else), you'd have to have a wireless controller, you'd want to play it on a larger screen, and it would still cost you hundreds of dollars over a regular one. Where's the advantage in having one over a regular gaming console? I just don't see it.
 
Consoles dead, PC dead,

I am going to be the first one to declare SmartPhone gaming as DEAD! THERE! It's DEAD!
It's dead because I said so ! BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
 
HardUp4HardWare said:
Consoles dead, PC dead,

I am going to be the first one to declare SmartPhone gaming as DEAD! THERE! It's DEAD!
It's dead because I said so ! BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
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Better be careful ... have you ever seen a mob of 500,000,000 Angry Bird players ... it is NOT a pretty sight :eek: ... personally I still think Angry Birds was Finland's secret play at global domination :cool:
 
Conker said:
I think people will just get tired of gaming until a game thats new and innovative comes out. People are tired of the same stuff over and over. Every shooter now has deathmatch. Its so stale and boring now. Something has to change. Every game is a copy of each other it seems like.
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This person I agree with whole heartedly. I use to love playing games, now it is like meh. A time killer really. I like something challenging, mind working, something like Dungeons and Dragons.... Now If I could find a group of people for that I will be set.Or warcraft 3.

Anyways yes. COD deathmatch, BF deathmatch, Red alert deathmatch.... I have not played BF3 but it just seems it is all like you said deathmatch. The campaigns are short.
 
Consoles challenged PCs, mobile phones/tabs will challenge consoles.

I think consumers are increasingly looking to get all their digital needs met in as few places as possible. For those casual gamers who mostly seek single-player mind-numbing, consoles (and PCs) are threatened by mobile devices.

For those who seek multiplayer experience, consoles will still rule by volume. That is, I don't see four-player iPad games, or any way for mobile devices to "take over the couch" (four players on a couch stereotype of console players).
 
Ashbringer said:
The gaming industry has to recognize there's two groups of people. The elite and the casual gamer. The elites want graphics and game play, while casual wants something to kill time and relax. The article focus's more on casual gamers, who will likely move towards devices like tablets and smart phones. Elite gamers will stick with consoles and PCs, but ultimately will move onto PCs.
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BDS23 said:
"Gaming aficionados will pay up, they say, because the bigger games are of higher quality."

... Right.

And Starcraft is a higher quality RTS than Sins of a Solar Empire. :rolleyes:

AAA games are messing up the standards here really bad. I f****** hate it when upping the difficulty only involves changing the damage percentages.
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The catch here is that the gaming industry actually believes the first bit: you get farmville and angry birds for the "casuals" and yet another FPS IX for the "elites". Kickstarter allows funding of games gamers want (but at a risk), but the big money will only flow to those two areas. I have no idea how much longer the funding will be around for casual games, Zynga pretty much was the "insert money here" for the financial types wanting to invest in the casual space. Investors want a sure thing, and that is something as derivative as farmville-in-hobbiton or angry birds III, not trying to find the next angry birds.

AAA games have gone beyond Hollywood movies in cost, and that makes every game a "bet the company" project. If it can't be explained to the viewer over a tweet, it isn't a sure sell. If the gameplay isn't derivative of multiple AAA games (plus a slight twist if absolutely necessary) it is to risky. If the reviews weren't written in house and handed out for publication, that is too risky. On the flip side, all (well most, game executives are as greedy as any in Hollywood. Probably that's where they hire them) this money is spent for a purpose: every single bit of setting, weapon, NPC has to be designed, carefully modeled, texture, shaders written for it. Indy games can compete, but I suspect part of the reason that minecraft looks like Id's old doom is that since anything Pick could produce would look like doom next to an AAA game, he'd make it "look like doom".

My predictions:

Casual games: will be mostly created by startups that at best make a short-lived franchise, then disappear. Very few investing opportunities.

AAA games: As given in the quote "dinosaurs" is not what is meant as they are expected to continue. "Sequoia" would be a better example. Those that are left, will keep making games as long as they turn a profit, but once they die they aren't being replaced.

Indy games: Kickstart will allow some experimentation, but gamer-investors will expect some kind of proven track record. Gamer-investors burned by failed kickstarts will be even more demanding.

Consoles: WiiU seems like a desperate move to stay in the business. Sony's history of draconian DRM schemes implies that if it cares about consoles, the PS3 root password hack means the PS4 will be become a serious project slated for release as soon as possible. No idea what microsoft is doing, but I'd assume that the Xbox is a cash cow that needs some defending. As far as "custom RISCs" being too expensive, I'd assume that plenty of markets (mainly server, but anything else that wants plenty of power without heat) would want a dual-issue out-of-order ARM job. Such a beast should have an advantage over future Atom/Bobcat designs and presumably AMD could meld one to a strong GPU (not something you would expect Intel to do).

Other thoughts:

With a name like "wumpus" it is no surprise that I remember the days of programmers writing games in a garage, then selling them as a baggie with the program on an audio cassette and the cover/instructions a xeroxed paper. It looks like the internet and app stores have brought that scene back, which seems like the only hope as AAA games cost more and more money to make. What is missing is the depth of resources like the entire code and model base from the "last big game" that the big boys have (and startups need this even more as the big boys will often reinvent the wheel for that last little bit of improved screenshots). Graphics engines are one thing, but I suspect that the needed model assets will be sloooow in coming. Also I don't expect anybody to care enough about these developers to followup on John Carmack's raytracing-ish GPU architecture proposal. While raytracing isn't the holy grail newbies tend to assume, it should cut out most of the shader code needed to write near-AAA games (don't expect it to ever match what AAA games/Hollywood CGI does). For all the buzz about "casual gamers" I can't see anyone building an ecosystem that will support garage-based developers. This is nintendo's big teritory but I can't see such big support for third (or should I say fourth) party games. Sony got huge with developer support for the PS2, but I just can't see them opening up to the degree this would require. Same with microsoft, apple and google/android, although anybody wanting exclusives on the "next big games" should probably try. Smaller companies? The job is way to big for a startup, but it would be interesting if someone like GoodOldGames could buy up enough assets for the "old games" that could be a start for such an ecosystem. I'm not holding my breath for any such support.
 
kbrickley said:
Better be careful ... have you ever seen a mob of 500,000,000 Angry Bird players ... it is NOT a pretty sight :eek: ... personally I still think Angry Birds was Finland's secret play at global domination :cool:
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I play Angry Birds on my PC. I'm such a rebel. :p
 
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