Blu-ray To Replace DVD Within 3 Years?

isnt the whole idea behind blu-ray to give higher resolution? I think I'd consider the extra $12 for 1080p over 480p
 
It's not just about PS3. That is an indicator only of the amount of pressure that comes from the market when players get cheaper, either through direct pricing, or by them being cheap addons to other products. The net effect is that when blu ray or hd dvd is making players for a few hundred bucks, people will hop on board. That isn't going to take more than 3 years, I'm sure.
 
InorganicMatter said:
The final nails were placed in Blu-Ray's coffin a long time ago, it is now a matter of if, and not when. HD-DVD has got the adult industry behind it (biggest plus), and it has cheap players on the way (much cheaper than the "cheap" BD players on the way).
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If Universal continues to insisit on those high cost double disks, they're gonan lose hard the Blue-Ray. The only reason to choose HD-DVD is if it's cheaper, otherwise it's just inferior tech. However they keep insisiting on releaseing large films on DVD/HD DVD combo disks that cost more than a blueray disk. This is a bad strategy.
 
Yes bluray has an association, just like HD DVD and DVD does (I bet most people dont know that Sony was one of the masterminds behind the DVD association, several major players have ditched the DVD association to build the Bluray association). DVD and HD DVD is not some open source free to everyone format, they charge fees to play discs which is why its impossible to find a free DVD codec for PC. Being part of the DVD or Bluray association means big money to be had from hardware manufacturers that have to pay them a fee to decode their video.

Porn supporting HDDVD is 100% irrelevent. This is NOT the 80's, almost all porn is done on the internet now, atleast in america. Japan may be the only country that still has a strong brick and mortor porn industry, and they will probably support bluray.

then I started looking at a LOT of Blu-ray movies, almost all the special features are the same. So, other than the way the special features can be accessed, what do I get for my extra $12? What good is "50GB" if there is no more content on the disk than a regular DVD? And this is a SONY film. Sony could be shooting special features in HD for their Blu-ray discs so that even the special features are in HD. Instead, you get the same standard definition special features that you do with the regular DVD.
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Uh it comes in HD? HD video takes up substantially more space than 480p. They arent going to put extra crap on the discs.
 
idividebyzero said:
Yes bluray has an association, just like HD DVD and DVD does (I bet most people dont know that Sony was one of the masterminds behind the DVD association, several major players have ditched the DVD association to build the Bluray association). DVD and HD DVD is not some open source free to everyone format, they charge fees to play discs which is why its impossible to find a free DVD codec for PC. Being part of the DVD or Bluray association means big money to be had from hardware manufacturers that have to pay them a fee to decode their video.

Porn supporting HDDVD is 100% irrelevent. This is NOT the 80's, almost all porn is done on the internet now, atleast in america. Japan may be the only country that still has a strong brick and mortor porn industry, and they will probably support bluray.


Uh it comes in HD? HD video takes up substantially more space than 480p. They arent going to put extra crap on the discs.
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better codecs used for encoding = not a cut and dried increase in size... it may be many times the resolution, but not as great an increase in size...so widescreen is what? 720x480?

1920x1080 is 1080p iirc... so thats 6 times more pixels, now if the whole 480 movie, and some special features can fit on a 4.7gb disc, then lets figure that out...

28.2gb using the same encoding. im sorry, but a 50gb BR disc is redundant. there is NO POINT to being that massive, and that expensive. as using the better codecs, i dont doubt the video fits in under 25gb with the special features in HD no less :rolleyes:

stupid cocky sony *shakes head* when will they go back to being cool? :( i miss my playstation 1 days... when the games always rocked, and i heard no FUD.
 
deeznuts said:
I believe the PS3 outsold the PS2 in their respective timelines and even the 360 no?
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The PS3 is in last place for sales / units shipped...however Sony counts it. This may change over the next year, etc. etc. etc. but for now, Sony is in last place and doesn't look like they are catching up (month over month sales figures) any time soon. Trust me, I will be the first person to report it, but for right now, the PS3 isn't leading in anything except freaky PR stunts.
 
Funniest thing I've read all day. Replacing analog television with digital is already going to be four years behind that eight year plan. I imagine it'll likely end up taking even longer. As if the 23 million households still using a typical 27" CRT care if they're watching a DVD or hi-def DVD.
 
The price of blu-ray disk at the moment is pointless becuase dvd's costed the same amount when they first came out and look how DVD turned out. Blu-ray cost will stedally drop untill its in the price range of everyone but for now it's only for the people who need a larger penis.

as for anolog nobody cares about anolog anymore becuase almost all tv's bought today are HDtv's. It will take proably 20 years before "every" single person gives up there 27" analog tv, but it will only be a few more years before you can only buy HD tv's and analog will no longer be in stores, and that is when its considered dead. I still use my VHS but that doesn't mean VHS isn't dead just becuase I still use it.

It may seem unlikely but in 3 years it is possable to have the majority of people own a HDtv and Blu-ray if both continue to drop in price and HDtv's are droping really fast.
 
The biggest problem for most people is cost of entry. You need an HDTV, the player and the movie. That is a huge hurdle for BOTH camps.

The next barrier…and this is a big one too, is the uncertainty factor. Most people will wait for one standard to kill the other one off / the join forces / dual format is available (disc or player).

Even after you get over hurdle A, you still have hurdle B.

I happen to own both HD-DVD and Blu-ray as well as a huge DVD collection (almost 2,000 DVDs). I have a nice Sharp Aquos 52” 1080p HDTV, a decent smaller HDTV 37” Westy, a decent HD projector (InFocus IN76) and a BenQ W100….I am definitely the “target audience” ….and even I AM WAITING for one standard to kill the other one because I don’t want to get stuck with 100 HD-DVD / Blu-ray movies that are worthless in a year, no thanks.

stevedave said:
...as for anolog nobody cares about anolog anymore becuase almost all tv's bought today are HDtv's.
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The facts (already mentioned in this thread):


• 17 Percent of US Households Have High Def Capable TV Sets - Mainly Upscale Households

• The mean annual household income of HDTV households is 42 percent above average

• 26 percent of households with annual incomes of over $50,000 have an HDTV compared to 7 percent of households with annual incomes below $50,000

• 26 percent of HDTV owners have more than one HDTV - up from 11 percent last year

• 29 percent of HDTV owners are likely to get another HDTV in the next year - up from 18 percent last year

• Only one-third of adults have heard of the digital TV transition, scheduled for February 17, 2009
 
In 3 years I expect to be using holographic discs. I'm skipping Blue-ray altogether.
 
Steve said:
Oh yeah, here is something that is starting to piss me off about this stupid "50GB CAPACITY" crap that is repeated by every damn drone on the planet.


then I started looking at a LOT of Blu-ray movies, almost all the special features are the same. So, other than the way the special features can be accessed, what do I get for my extra $12? What good is "50GB" if there is no more content on the disk than a regular DVD? And this is a SONY film. Sony could be shooting special features in HD for their Blu-ray discs so that even the special features are in HD. Instead, you get the same standard definition special features that you do with the regular DVD.
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this whole 50gb argument for bd is moot anyways. If and when they feel the need for extra space on the discs for HD-DVD.. there has already been talk of a 45gb triple layer HD-DVD disc.

http://www.engadget.com/2006/09/11/toshibas-triple-layer-hd-dvd-dvd-discs/
 
EXreaction said:
Is it just me, or does this sound like the same arrogant crap Sony has been sputtering the last few years? :eek:
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Sony != Blue Ray

Christ, how hard is it to understand. They have a large vested interest in it, but they aren't the only one. Vists the BDA website I linked to in my previous post and look at all the other "evil" companies that are part of the association.
 
1. I don't think the player matters and I don't think the cost of the disk really matters

2. this and this matter IMO

It would be neat to see if every person made a list of which movies they would buy from each list if they had reasonable funding avaialble. The good news is that there is a lot of repeats. However, there are a few movies that are exclusive to blueray which is therefore pushing me away from HD-DVD. Anybody else?
 
kush said:
"blu-ray is outselling hd-dvd" - really? Care to provide some hard numbers, and not some PR bull from either side? And how many of those are "free" bundled (with PS3) copies of one of the typically crappy Hollywood releases of '06 - Talladega Nights (?). They count as "sales" but it's not like the consumer had a choice in the matter on what they got.
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http://news.digitaltrends.com/article12412.html

Right there buddy. BD Casino Royale was first HD movie to break top 10 on amazons DVD list. Its no secret BD is slaughtering HD-DVD in sales since PS3 launch.

This is NOT counting the bundled BD with the PS3.

PS3 market penetration which is more than people care to admit is having a huge impact on the sales of blu-ray movies.
 
Also should add that every month the total market lead BD has is steadily increasing.
 
BD replacing standard DVD in 3 years, no, can't see it at all.

Some thoughts from someone who owns a PS3 (me)

Casino Royale on Blu-ray hit #6 on Amazon this morning (widescreen version on dvd was #1), this is a milestone for blu-ray and hopefully will show the studios that if they release big movies on blu-ray they will get the sales.

The problem with both HD DVD and Blu-ray is the lack of content, HD DVD is worse (with only one exlusive studio), but blu-ray is still very bad.

HD DVD seems to be pushed more by people who own it than the people who sell it.

Sony may have hurt PS3 sales by including the blu-ray player and increasing the price, but the PS3 (along with content) will probably be the reason that blu-ray wins the war over HD DVD.

Last point - Please tell Sony employees to STFU, show us, don't tell us, we don't need to hear about your fantasies, or what we might be able to do in the coming years. You need to improve your offering now, work on game and movie releases.
 
Not a bloody chance as far as I'm concerned... Not as long as there are TWO HD formats.
 
Yup, the blu-ray probibly won't replace the dvd but most likely hd-dvd because of the PS3. Actually ps3 is cheap, think of it the cheapest blu ray player Ive seen was at $800. But the PS3 has an blu ray player, can play games, and can be used as a home entertainment system all that for $600!
 
4saken said:
http://news.digitaltrends.com/article12412.html

Right there buddy. BD Casino Royale was first HD movie to break top 10 on amazons DVD list. Its no secret BD is slaughtering HD-DVD in sales since PS3 launch.

This is NOT counting the bundled BD with the PS3.

PS3 market penetration which is more than people care to admit is having a huge impact on the sales of blu-ray movies.
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That is the Neilsen article that everyone has disputed since it launched (lol! at the Blu-ray AD in the article). Why? Because:

According to Nielsen, Blu-ray movie sales have taken 60 percent of the high-def market since the first week of January 2007;, and for the week ending February 18 Blu-ray sales accounted for 65 percent of the market, with HD DVD garnering 35 percent of sales.

Earlier figures from VideoScan showed HD DVD sales ahead of Blu-ray in late 2006; however, beginning the week of December 24, 2006, Blu-ray pulled ahead with 53.3 percent of the market, and has been steadily increasing its lead. Since the week of January 7, 2007, Blu-ray sales have ranged from 63.3 percent of the market to as high as 69.6 percent of weekly high-def movie sales.
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They counted a 4 week period when ONLY Blu-Ray movies were released. No HD-DVD titles shipped then. I'm amazed they didn't have 100% market share for that month.


SO...that is why most sensible people are taking a wait and see approach. NEXT YEAR, if HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has a 65% - 35%...that might be significant. Besides, what happens if one standard kills the other and then the winner dies off because it never catches on?

UMD movies had how many stdios behind it? Dead as a doornail for the very same reason BOTH these standards could die.
 
Quick slightly OT question...

There are at least 2 million blu-ray players on the market and about 200,000 hd dvd players (including the add on).

Doesn't that make Universal look like they are making a bad choice by not supporting both?

Did Universal sink millions of dollars into HD DVD?

Why would they not make their product available to the larger market?
 
Steve said:
That is the Neilsen article that everyone has disputed since it launched. Why? Because:



They counted a 4 week period when ONLY Blu-Ray movies were released. No HD-DVD titles shipped then. I'm amazed they didn't have 100% market share for that month.


SO...that is why most sensible people are taking a wait and see approach. NEXT YEAR, if HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has a 65% - 35%...that might be significant. Besides, what happens if one standard kills the other and then the winner dies off because it never catches on?

UMD movies had how many stdios behind it? Dead as a doornail for the very same reason BOTH these standards could die.
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I get it. But you know why no HD-DVD movies launched? Because there are no studios backing it!

Regardless of that 4 week period, BD had the market because they hav emovies releasing. HD has an extremely few amount of movies releasing in comparison to BD over the next few months. If this skews numbers it still goes to show who has the support and who is making sales.
 
Steve said:
That is the Neilsen article that everyone has disputed since it launched. Why? Because:



They counted a 4 week period when ONLY Blu-Ray movies were released. No HD-DVD titles shipped then. I'm amazed they didn't have 100% market share for that month.


SO...that is why most sensible people are taking a wait and see approach. NEXT YEAR, if HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has a 65% - 35%...that might be significant. Besides, what happens if one standard kills the other and then the winner dies off because it never catches on?

UMD movies had how many stdios behind it? Dead as a doornail for the very same reason BOTH these standards could die.
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Isn't the fact that no HD DVDs were released more of a problem than some report by Nielsen?

I am in this for the movies, what are you in it for?
 
I do think you are right Steve, both of these formats could lose, and prolonging of the so called war only makes that more of a possibility.
 
Jiffylush said:
Isn't the fact that no HD DVDs were released more of a problem than some report by Nielsen?

I am in this for the movies, what are you in it for?
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My point is that I would TOTALLY call BS on HD-DVD if the quoted numbers from a month that only they released movies (like the months leading up to Jan - Feb when they were "winning") too.

Like I said, I'll wait untill all the dust settles before declaring a winner.
 
Steve said:
My point is that I would TOTALLY call BS on HD-DVD if the quoted numbers from a month that only they released movies (like the months leading up to Jan - Feb when they were "winning") too.

Like I said, I'll wait untill all the dust settles before declaring a winner.
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Im with you, but BD has steadily increased is foothold, and taken over in total sales since the PS3 launch. With the Casino Royale BD peaking at #6 now on the Amazon DVD list, bottom line is, things are looking great for the Blu-Ray camp. Of course its too early to say who will win. But the polar shift in HDDVD looking like it had a lock just 4 months ago, to now looking like its hanging by a thread is telling.
 
lopoetve said:
dvd ain't going anywhere.
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I hope not anytime soon. The thought of replacing my DVD collection is depressing.
I don't have as many as Steve but I have hundreds and hundreds.

Steve, are you planning on replacing all of your DVD's to the "winning" format of the so-called format war?
 
Steve said:
The PS3 is in last place for sales / units shipped...however Sony counts it. This may change over the next year, etc. etc. etc. but for now, Sony is in last place and doesn't look like they are catching up (month over month sales figures) any time soon. Trust me, I will be the first person to report it, but for right now, the PS3 isn't leading in anything except freaky PR stunts.
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That's all fine and dandy but you missed the part I wrote about "respective" timelines. ;)
 
mcravenufo said:
I hope not anytime soon. The thought of replacing my DVD collection is depressing.
I don't have as many as Steve but I have hundreds and hundreds.

Steve, are you planning on replacing all of your DVD's to the "winning" format of the so-called format war?
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I think people might upgrade their must own titles (star wars, lotro, jaws, etc...), and even if Blu-ray ends up taking over for regular DVD (still seems far-fetched), your old dvds that you already have will still work. They can even be upconverted if sony ever gets off their asses and fixes the ps3. (instead of making crazy statements to the press all the time)
 
Steve said:
That is the Neilsen article that everyone has disputed since it launched (lol! at the Blu-ray AD in the article). Why? Because:



They counted a 4 week period when ONLY Blu-Ray movies were released. No HD-DVD titles shipped then. I'm amazed they didn't have 100% market share for that month.


SO...that is why most sensible people are taking a wait and see approach. NEXT YEAR, if HD-DVD or Blu-Ray has a 65% - 35%...that might be significant. Besides, what happens if one standard kills the other and then the winner dies off because it never catches on?

UMD movies had how many stdios behind it? Dead as a doornail for the very same reason BOTH these standards could die.
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Similar statistics have been thrown around for HD-DVD as well, i.e. time period when there was no BD.
 
Steve said:
UMD movies had how many stdios behind it? Dead as a doornail for the very same reason BOTH these standards could die.
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Slightly different situation, they could only be played back on a single device meant for games and didn't offer any advantage in PQ or SQ than traditional DVD titles. HD display sales are taking off and people want material to show on that fancy new display.

I'm not agreeing with BD winning or DVD being usurped in 3 years, but I really don't see the winner failing like quite like UMD. You're right, if people don't see the point HD movies could fail.

A better example would have been DVD-A vs. SACD, but again you have many more people watching movies at home than sit in their chair and listen to music in a dedicated listening room.
 
Quote from top adult video studio Digital Playground's founder

But according to Joone, Sony didn't want Digital Playground's dirty laundry on their next-gen platform. He went on to tell Heise Online that he had "wanted to publish his movies on Blu-ray Disc, but that all Blu-ray Disc copying facilities in the United States had refused to cooperate." Even further, the companies involved threatened to withdraw their Blu-ray licenses should Digital Playground attempt to make the blue movie industry even Blu-er.

Doesnt sound like any blue movies on Blue-ray anytime soon.
 
4saken said:
Yeah well, people are exaggerating the porn only being on HDDVD which isnt the case. A major distributor said they are using HDDVD for certain reasons. There will be porn on BD discs. But its still not going to be the same factor as it was 20 years ago.
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IIRC there have already been porn titles announced on BD, people blow the bang bros thing way out of proportion.
 
deeznuts said:
That's all fine and dandy but you missed the part I wrote about "respective" timelines. ;)
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oops!


mcravenufo said:
Steve, are you planning on replacing all of your DVD's to the "winning" format of the so-called format war?
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Well, when I switched from VHS to DVD, I had about 700 movies. I waited until I had a good chunk of DVDs and had the majority of the "must haves" replaced (as someone said) and then sent the whole batch to my sister in California for X-mas (20 some boxes of VHS movies...LOL!!!) Now I am at just under 2000 DVDs. DVDs are so inexpensive that it is almost the ONLY way I watch movvies now...I can't stand broadcast TV or anything with commercials in it.

So yeah, I'll do the same when there is a clear winner.

Right now, it is a PR war and that is it. HD-DVD screamed from the top of the hills when they were on top (at first). Now, it is Blu-ray that is doing chest thumping....and the whole time, 90% of the general public could give a crap.
 
Couple of points.
1) the porn thing is not going to be any where near the impact it had in th VHS/Betamax days since the "shame" of hitting the local theater or bookstore has largely diminished which because getting it in the privacy of your own home is what sold those tapes, plus they where cheaper to produce. Now you can see couples going into porn stores to pick up a tape (or other stuff) so that is a less intimidating thing than it used to be, plus of course you can order or watch whatever you want online.
2)The cost of stand alone players is outrageous when you can hit Walgreens and pick up a $20-$40 DVD player, not top of the line but it will play what the "average" consumer buys
You have the PS3 for $500-$600 for Blue-Ray, but more importantly Microsoft released the stand alone HD player for the 360 at around $200, wich more importantly can be plugged into a PC, so with the right outputs you could transfer movies to your TV (Apple TV??).
The best thing is of course would be a multiple player DVD/HD/Blue at an "affordable" price.
The only things holding me back from the HD player is that it is not a recorder, and I don't feel like buying any more movies right now
 
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