So if video card prices stay elevated for years, then what happens?

philb2

[H]ard|Gawd
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There are plenty of ways that companies can collude on prices, without being obvious about it. What if NVidia and AMD decide that they like the current profit margins and effectively collude to keep prices high, even after the chip shortages are history and mining is no longer a "thing?" Then what?

I know that I'll keep my current 3060 Ti, which I use for photo-type applications, running a lot longer.
 
Then what?
In that scenario people can easily enter a bestbuy and buy the new Playstation or Xbox revision from a pile of them that just released but video card stay this current price ?

I think that option would become way more popular for gamers than current priced video card and Intel video card become a giant success if the drivers achieve to be mediocre and a good price.
 
I think that one saving grace is that integrated graphics are getting a LOT better. For many, just getting a Ryzen APU (5600G, 5700G, etc) would be enough for most games. Intel has stepped up their game with their integrated graphics also.

In addition, I see future PC games taking the market into account and not necessarily requiring top-of-the-line graphics in order to play.
 
My 3080 will last me 4 to 5 years, just like my 1080 Ti did.

Maybe I missed something, but i thought that the price increases were largely being driven by resellers and scalpers and not nVidia and AMD and as a result, they’re not seeing much of the additional money from the greatly inflated prices.

At any rate, if I’m wrong on that and they are, it isn’t sustainable for people to have $600-$1500 for consumer GPUs. People will eventually move on to older games, lower settings, or skip AAA games completely. Devices like Steam Deck will be the devices people start using. Also, it’s possible that if new fabs are brought online, new players will emerge who will undercut them and start a price war. If Intel wants to gain market share for their new cards, it isn’t going to be tough - as long as they’re decent and reasonably competitive, Intel just needs to ensure adequate supply and undercut nVidia and AMD. My understanding, however, is that Intel may be using TSMC for the GPUs and if that’s the case, we‘ll see supply constraints and won’t be able to count on them as our “savior.”
 
Maybe I missed something, but i thought that the price increases were largely being driven by resellers and scalpers and not nVidia and AMD and as a result, they’re not seeing much of the additional money from the greatly inflated prices.

I think you are mostly right, for example AMD sells the RX 6700XT via their site for 504.10€ (wxhich I might add is nearly 100€ more then around launch, but as TSMC had some price increases) cheapest one in stores around here is 799€ with most consting 999€
 
I agree. The market will then be flooded with video cards and everyone will have a chance to get one at normal regular pricing. Yayyy!
What's normal? Even if that did burst, the $699 3080 is gone forever. Miners aren't the whole story. Lot of funny money (inflation) printed between launch and now, plus many other factors.

Sure, maybe if cards start rotting on shelves.
 
I don't think most people realize that inflation and tariffs (at least in the US) are a huge factor contributing to card costs. Those two mixed with the rising costs of each component and the consumer is met with an ever growing cost of hardware. Even if you took mining out of the equation, the prices listed on EVGA are probably what you'd be paying if product was available.
 
sometime in H2 this year, GPU prices will 'crash'. new cards will never go back to 'normal'. but they will go down some, and the used market will take a pretty good dive on older cards where the efficiency is pretty low. we have a massive wave of new products coming in from 3 vendors this time. the POS ethereum chain will be fully active at some point this year and it will be a while before all that hash power gets absorbed. and the lowest efficiency cards will never get moved, they will just get dumped.
 
What if NVidia and AMD decide that they like the current profit margins and effectively collude to keep prices high, even after the chip shortages are history and mining is no longer a "thing?" Then what?


OEM contracts will have something to say about that - there is no way the current volume of gaming computers keeps selling if they suddenly artificially doubled the price.

No future Notebook Design Wins for anyone except Alder Lake will kill AMD and NVIDIAs resolve overnight!

And if for some crazy reason they only do this magical jacked-up price to retail parts, then I will simply buy an OEM gaming computer for the first time ever (an option a lot less painful than buying an Xbox.)
 
Even before the pandemic and crypto mining, researchers and companies both projected that technology would become exponentially more expensive as the process shrank. I believe 32nm had the optimal price to performance ratio. Up until the 32nm we had <$500 flagships for a while. Then came the 780... $650. The 980Ti, also $650 but closer to $700 in reality. Then the 1080Ti with its $700 never to be seen "FE pricing" while all aftermarket cards were going for $800 or more. Then another big jump to the 2080Ti at $1200. I'm going to stop here because this all came before the latest mining craze, inflation, supply-chain issues, and etc.

Now add in crypto mining, inflation, and supply-chain problems and by the time things get back to "normal", we're probably looking at $1500-$1800 MSRP for the high end x80Ti with $1000 being the mid-range xx80 part. It sucks but this is the reality. At least some of this can be countered on the software side: i.e. DLSS and hopefully developers work at optimizing their games better so that instead of upgrading a GPU every 2-3 years you can go 3-5 years instead.
 
true, the DEVs actually made some statements that make it clear that they are really putting effort into it being sooner rather than later, this time.

Kind of like the wife beater that tells his wife. "Sorry, it won't happen again", and beats his wife to a pulp the next week. 🤣

It's all lip service until it happens..
 
The bubble will burst soon enough.
I agree. The market will then be flooded with video cards and everyone will have a chance to get one at normal regular pricing. Yayyy!

I mean, it already happened once.

Remember back when Nvidia was inundated with 10-series inventory because they produced too much in an attempt to supply miners and then crypto dropped in value, and they were left holding the bag?

It was only 4 years ago. Nvidia remembers.

1644434828300.png


I mean, right now there is a shortage of silicon fab capacity, at least in the latest gen process nodes everyone wants, so that is also a factor, but even if it weren't, Nvidia and AMD remember that lesson, and they don't want to scale up only to be caught with their pants down with a ton of inventory they can't sell again.
 
I mean, it already happened once.

Remember back when Nvidia was inundated with 10-series inventory because they produced too much in an attempt to supply miners and then crypto dropped in value, and they were left holding the bag?

It was only 4 years ago. Nvidia remembers.

View attachment 442639

I mean, right now there is a shortage of silicon fab capacity, at least in the latest gen process nodes everyone wants, so that is also a factor, but even if it weren't, Nvidia and AMD remember that lesson, and they don't want to scale up only to be caught with their pants down with a ton of inventory they can't sell again.
I remember that. The difference this time is that I think Nvidia is selling every single card they make (cards or the stuff they give AIBs). Nvidia cards aren't rotting on shelves because they are 2X MSRP. Everyone's buying them.
 
I remember that. The difference this time is that I think Nvidia is selling every single card they make (cards or the stuff they give AIBs). Nvidia cards aren't rotting on shelves because they are 2X MSRP. Everyone's buying them.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. Nvidia isn't repeating their past mistakes. They are intentionally holding back on production because crypto is volatile, and they don't want to get stuck with having to discount off large quantities of old GPU's the next time crypto tanks.

Further exacerbating that fact is that they would struggle to produce as much as last time simply because of fab capacity issues, but reports like these seem to suggest that they aren't manufacturing as much as they could, and that is probably because of the above fear of being stuck with old inventory.
 
Yeah, that's exactly my point. Nvidia isn't repeating their past mistakes. They are intentionally holding back on production because crypto is volatile, and they don't want to get stuck with having to discount off large quantities of old GPU's the next time crypto tanks.

Further exacerbating that fact is that they would struggle to produce as much as last time simply because of fab capacity issues, but reports like these seem to suggest that they aren't manufacturing as much as they could, and that is probably because of the above fear of being stuck with old inventory.
I don't think they are holding back. If reports are to be believed, Nvidia is cranking out more chips than they have ever done in previous gens.

They have absolutely no reason to hold back. Either miners will buy them or gamers if they can get their hands on them...regardless of price. That right there is the big difference we've seen the past 2 years. Gamers have not pushed back like they have in the past and instead are just happy to get anything. I go to my local MC all the time and they sell out their entire Nvidia case every day regardless of the ridiculous prices.
 
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That's the only realistic option. I'm expecting the 40-series will be the highest MSRP's yet...if they even bother with an MSRP. Just look at what they did with the 3080 12GB.
Yeah, I don't see AMD or Nvidia announcing an MSRP going forward, especially Nvidia, they have a habit of taking the path of least resistance. (Offloading their product to Best Buy for exapmple.)
 
Back to the OP: Lots of gamers begging on the street corners (?)
 
We leave the basement and go to this mythical place I keep hearing about called "outside".
Only if you wear your government certified bubble suit and don't look or talk to anyone without government approval.
 
I remember that. The difference this time is that I think Nvidia is selling every single card they make (cards or the stuff they give AIBs). Nvidia cards aren't rotting on shelves because they are 2X MSRP. Everyone's buying them.
Then how come cards have been in stock over here for over 6 months? They are so expensive that even scalpers don't touch them anymore. Now given that the prices have not fallen yet they must still move some, but not fast enough anymore to be out of stock.
 
We leave the basement and go to this mythical place I keep hearing about called "outside".

I'd rather just stay inside and stare at a wall. :p

I'm partially joking, but I find there to be nothing great about the outdoors. The only time I volunarily go outside it is because I am in the process of travelling somewhere else that is indoors, and I can't get there without going outdoors.

Maybe I'll pick up another hobby. Puzzles maybe? :p
 
Then how come cards have been in stock over here for over 6 months? They are so expensive that even scalpers don't touch them anymore. Now given that the prices have not fallen yet they must still move some, but not fast enough anymore to be out of stock.
Card you see on a shelf have already been sold by the AIB/Nvidia, some reseller asking very high price and not offering them online is a small margin, there is not a single card on bestbuy, newegg and so on, that does not mean that there is a single card an AIB made with an NVIDIA chips that they were not able to sell to a reseller has of now.
 
While I might need to upgrade for the next generation as I run a GTX 1070, basically equivlant to a 3050 in raw performance.. I could have afforded to upgrade to a 30 series card, faster processor, better monitor last year ect.. But the expense made me widen my horizons. Computing is not cheap anymore. I literally bought a nice small boat and restored it last year for basically what building a decent gaming computer would cost right now.

Now I still occasionally game, but if anything graphical enhancements in games allows me to see what the 1070 is actually capable of. I had the itch to upgrade, but I'll go on a vacation this summer instead.
 
Back to the OP: Lots of gamers begging on the street corners (?)
Define begging......

On a serious note, I have not been a serious gamer in a few years. These prices absolutely have me balking at doing an upgrade to play any game. This build I have now is 10 years old and needs an upgrade to play some of the later releases I am interested in but am not willing to shell out for. There are more things important in life that $1500 (for just a vid card) would be better used on.
 
You can still get entire prebuilts for around $2k with 3080s in them. I’d do that before I pay these asinine prices.

Eventually demand will catch up. I am sure Intel ramped up development seeing this market.
 
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