AdoredTV: Comprehending the Navi No-Show

Megalith

Megalith

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Having received criticism for leaks that weren’t entirely accurate, AdoredTV’s Jim Parker has returned with a new video that attempts to explain what went wrong and why Navi was a no-show. While critics are calling this another round of damage control, AMD hopefuls say that a leak doesn’t have to be 100% accurate to be “right.”
 
Who cares if the leak is right or wrong? He tends to have a bunch of information that pans out, even if not entirely. That makes his opinions well informed. That's all anyone should need from him. Leaks are not facts.
 
Ouch. According to that video HMB2 is more expensive than I realized. "Isn't breaking even on most vega products due to the cost of HBM2"
 
I honestly don't care if AdoredTV's speculation/theories/leaks are 100% true or not. Some of it is and quite a lot is spot-on. I like watching them because they are a good insight into where CPUs & GPUs are heading.
I'm planning to upgrade 2 or 3 PCs in the next 6 months and having a good idea of whats coming in the next 6 months to few years is nice.
 
illli said:
Ouch. According to that video HMB2 is more expensive than I realized. "Isn't breaking even on most vega products due to the cost of HBM2"
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Its not too surprising. A couple years ago Steve from Gamer's Nexus found out that 8GB of HBM2 was $150. At that price 16GB would be $300. Might be a little less now days, but probably not a huge amount. Even if its $250 that is a significant chunk of the MSRP. Then add another $25 for the interposer. So, they could be paying as much as $275-$325 per card just for the memory.
 
lets say $250 for VRAM n interposter, add another $25 for packing, $50 for driver support as well as custom fans etc thats $325, so righ there they lost ~1/2 the cost for HBM2 equipped card (in your example) but if the speed advantage is beneficial that is "priceless" to be fair, 50% profit margin even 25% is not "huge" certainly not starving in the street, but, folks need keep this in mind, these things are $$$$$$$$ to make, so something that costs $350 to produce reasonably cannot be on the shelf for less than $600, if it were $50 to produce like some chips are, selling them for $300 is "criminal" in comparison IMO.

Still waiting to see what Navi will end up being like closer to mid/late summer ^.^
 
AMD GPUs are a train wreck for anything over Rx 580 performance. I don’t see a compelling case for strong sales if Navi is at the leaked 2070/1080 performance level. Many people have picked up used pascal cards on the cheap. AMD GPUs is as usual too little too late. These would have made bank if released before pascal used flooded eBay. I bought a 1070ti for $300. Why would someone want to wait 9 months to get this performance for $250? Hope that amd can turn around their lack of GPUs with the better cash flow zen has provided more recently...
 
You know what AMD got over hyped (by people and their expectations) again (this will be bulldozer all over again). I'm disappointed in myself for riding the hype train, especially since I knew about the channel problems AMD has.

Edited for clarity.
 
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sleepybp said:
AMD GPUs are a train wreck for anything over Rx 580 performance. I don’t see a compelling case for strong sales if Navi is at the leaked 2070/1080 performance level. Many people have picked up used pascal cards on the cheap. AMD GPUs is as usual too little too late. These would have made bank if released before pascal used flooded eBay. I bought a 1070ti for $300. Why would someone want to wait 9 months to get this performance for $250? Hope that amd can turn around their lack of GPUs with the better cash flow zen has provided more recently...
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I rather doubt most people are buying used cards, especially if people are wary about them being cards that used to be used for mining. People love to talk about the used market with PC parts but with all the worry (somewhat founded and somewhat not) about former mining cards I'd be surprised if those taking the Ebay jump are more than a small minority of builders.
 
Derangel said:
Its not too surprising. A couple years ago Steve from Gamer's Nexus found out that 8GB of HBM2 was $150. At that price 16GB would be $300. Might be a little less now days, but probably not a huge amount. Even if its $250 that is a significant chunk of the MSRP. Then add another $25 for the interposer. So, they could be paying as much as $275-$325 per card just for the memory.
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Well you really need to find out what the cost of 16GB GDDR6 is to see how much more expensive HBM2 is.

Also do we know if that $150 cost includes the interposer and packaging costs?
 
sleepybp said:
AMD GPUs are a train wreck for anything over Rx 580 performance. I don’t see a compelling case for strong sales if Navi is at the leaked 2070/1080 performance level. Many people have picked up used pascal cards on the cheap. AMD GPUs is as usual too little too late. These would have made bank if released before pascal used flooded eBay. I bought a 1070ti for $300. Why would someone want to wait 9 months to get this performance for $250? Hope that amd can turn around their lack of GPUs with the better cash flow zen has provided more recently...
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This is when someone assumes everyone is buying used pascal cards. Show me the numbers or some study or stop spreading the nonsense.
 
Since when getting 100% of the leaks is the only way to be correct lol. If people really watch his videos he will straight up say take it with a grain of salt when he is not 100% confident. Its amazing people are mad for not getting what they thought would be true. Plans change all the time. Plus his videos are more future insight then being 100% right.
 
extide said:
Well you really need to find out what the cost of 16GB GDDR6 is to see how much more expensive HBM2 is.

Also do we know if that $150 cost includes the interposer and packaging costs?
Click to expand...

For 8GB of HBM2 (assuming prices haven't gone down) it would be $175. HBM2 at $150 and the interposer and packaging at $25.

GDDR6 is supposedly 70% more expensive than GDDR6 so going back to the Gamer's Nexus article (here) we can do some quick math to figure out pricing (again, assuming prices have not gone down in that time). According to that article 8GB of GDDR5 would cost $68 so a 70% increase would put the total cost at $115.60. For easy math I'll just round that down to $115.

So, for 8GB we're looking at a $50 price difference. At 16GB we're looking at $325 (or 350 if you need to double the interposer and packaging costs) for HBM2 vs $230 for GDDR6 for a $95 difference.
 
NKD said:
This is when someone assumes everyone is buying used pascal cards. Show me the numbers or some study or stop spreading the nonsense.
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Would love to see some eBay data on these numbers also. Would not consider the used GPUs market to be “nonsense” though and believe it has a meaningful impact on both amd and Nvidia new gpu sales. Especially for this period until the mining cards are all sold off
 
Can someone sum up this long ass video for me? So far he just sounds like an AMD shill... "AMD employees call me because they want me to succeed.."?? Seriously? Someone is risking their jobs for a talking tech-head to succeed? Feels fake. I'll give it to him, he's really good. Takes too damn long to get to the point.
 
GoodBoy said:
Can someone sum up this long ass video for me? So far he just sounds like an AMD shill... "AMD employees call me because they want me to succeed.."?? Seriously? Someone is risking their jobs for a talking tech-head to succeed? Feels fake. I'll give it to him, he's really good. Takes too damn long to get to the point.
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Here is the summary:

Vega 20 was planned but Navi was better then expected so they didn't want to release Vega 20 to gamers at first.

In September Navi was performing better and giving better performance per watt the expected but required a re-tape, so couldn't make it in time for CES.

So AMD went back to original plan of Vega 20 and ramped it up later in the year to announce at CES.

Navi will come mid year.


I don't think he is a shill. But his source probably didn't come through as he expected. I think he has better info about CPUs then GPUs. I do remember him saying in the earlier video before his source was more sure about CPUs.

But I do think while his source might be in with AMD, he doesn't seem to have too much inside in to launches. His source might be covering his ass with the respin of Navi.

I truly think Navi is a mid range part and AMD likely needs a lot more supply of Navi for mid range if they want to price it to take away some market share on the mid range. In order to do that they probably want to wait longer to have a larger supply for Navi. That is the only reason I think they are waiting until mid year to release since 7nm will have ramped up and will be able to pump out lot more chips.


This is his tweet. Looks like he is not taking his leaker too seriously anymore until he can validate that info he said lol. So I am not really buying his leaker that Navi needed a respin, may be or maybe not! Leaker could have said that to cover his ass. Who knows. May be the leaker just assumed it was ready to launch and AMD instead is waiting to ramp up production and have larger stock at launch.

 
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NKD said:
Here is the summary:

Vega 20 was planned but Navi was better then expected so they didn't want to release Vega 20 to gamers at first.

In September Navi was performing better and giving better performance per watt the expected but required a re-tape, so couldn't make it in time for CES.

So AMD went back to original plan of Vega 20 and ramped it up later in the year to announce at CES.

Navi will come mid year.


I don't think he is a shill. But his source probably didn't come through as he expected. I think he has better info about CPUs then GPUs. I do remember him saying in the earlier video before his source was more sure about CPUs.

But I do think while his source might be in with AMD, he doesn't seem to have too much inside in to launches. His source might be covering his ass with the respin of Navi.

I truly think Navi is a mid range part and AMD likely needs a lot more supply of Navi for mid range if they want to price it to take away some market share on the mid range. In order to do that they probably want to wait longer to have a larger supply for Navi. That is the only reason I think they are waiting until mid year to release since 7nm will have ramped up and will be able to pump out lot more chips.


This is his tweet. Looks like he is not taking his leaker too seriously anymore until he can validate that info he said lol. So I am not really buying his leaker that Navi needed a respin, may be or maybe not! Leaker could have said that to cover his ass. Who knows. May be the leaker just assumed it was ready to launch and AMD instead is waiting to ramp up production and have larger stock at launch.

Click to expand...

His source might have good info on launches, but that doesn't always mean it will pan out. No matter the industry, last minute issues can come up and completely alter a company's launch plans. Heck, look at Turing. Nvidia had to delay the 2080 ti mere days before the announced launch date. The source might not even be covering their ass either. As far as I understand it changes to chips can happen pretty quickly, even right before they're announced. If AMD did discover a problem the best option would be to fix it before announcing the release and not rush the product to market. That said, Jim did mention before and in this video that his source knows more about the CPU side of things than the GPU. Its possible their GPU info comes second hand from folks working in the GPU division or comes from people working on marketing plans for GPUs, depending on which division of AMD they work for.
 
Lisa Su's video did vindicate some of the parts missing from CES that was expected from the leaks. Looks like allot of frantic corporate politics and strategy behind the scenes by the two companies, amusing stuff.
 
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