Nvidia Stock Falls Following Turing Reviews

TrailRunner said:
Day traders / high frequency traders are super reactionary. As an example, AMD also inexplicably dipped this morning, despite the nasdaq being up, presumably because they also do GPUs. But, I’m pretty confident that nvidia’s valuation is based on their growing strength in hpc/ data center, and this being the case, this momentary downward blip based on consumer product performance will correct itself shortly.
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Ultimately, datacenter, embedded (e.g. infotainment centers for cars), and IOT is where the money is at; not in gaming. All you have to do is look at NVIDIA's website; look how far buried the Geforce stuff is in the menus compared to basically everything else. That should tell you where their priorities are these days. There was a time when the NVIDIA website was about nothing but gaming graphics.

AMD's valuation is based on Intel being a rudderless ship allowing them to come in and claim market share. Brian Krzanich was an unmitigated disaster for Intel; under his reign they lost their manufacturing lead for probably one of the first times ever (at one time, Intel was years ahead of the competition in terms of manufacturing technology). Couple that with the fact that they haven't significantly changed their processor architecture since at least Haswell, AMD coming out with Ryzen, and the Spectre/Meltdown stuff and it has not been a good year for Intel. When Intel announces that they are hoping to keep AMD marketshare "under 20%" in a market where they have 99% marketshare currently (servers), you know things aren't good for them because they are facing a war on two fronts; AMD on the high performance side and ARM coming at them from the other end for mobile/power efficient chips.
 
I really don't see an issue with these cards. I mean, anyone with half a brain knew that much of the die space was dedicated to the new tech, and that this new tech would take a while to be utilized fully. The same people would also realize that a die shrunken rev coming up in the near(ish) future would be the all around sweet spot for everything on this GPU.

Also, if you're like me and running a 1070, the middle card (2080) is actually a pretty ridiculous leap forward, and if comparing the price to a 1080Ti, still a pretty decent deal at it's price, and has some additional tech to play with here and there.

No, they're not a huge leap in old games, but then Nvidia already dominated the old games in the first place. If the new tech isn't interesting to you yet, hold off for the next round of cards. If it is, or even slightly so, you still get a bit of a boost in older games too. Just not huge.

If I go from my 1070 to a 2080, I get roughly 90% to 150% improvements in older games, plus get the new tech. That doesn't seem that bad to me. I'll be paying for it for sure, but $700-800 for roughly 2x performance to what I'm running now doesn't really sound too bad. Granted that's also an X70 to X80 leap, but it's a pretty logical upgrade path for someone in my position. I'll wait for AIB cards though first, full availability, etc. before I jump.

These are still the best cards on the market, plain and simple. If you have to have the best on the market, where else are you going to go?
 
kilroy67 said:
If people think thats bad wait until they see the cards resale value.
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Yeah. I'm one of the dumbasses that's getting the 2080 Ti's ... I'm going thru with the purchase mostly because I game at 4K and my current card, a 1080 is not cutting it.

I have no issues with the cost. Money comes and goes with me in the hundreds each week. But, I do fear regrets for other reasons. Resell value might bring regret if the market drops out due to .... price changes or if nVidia releases something else.

I guess nVidia still has a few GPU's that have even more performance than the GPU that's in the 2080 ti's i've read? I'm not sure on this but I think I've read they have a 105 ... 106? Someone please help me out here ... the 2080 Ti has the 104?

Lot of avenue here for regret. Hope I'm spared.
 
Nvidia's stock often drops more than this for no reason at all, and this news isn't really a surprise. I have a lot of their stock and my concern has more to do with their datacenter AI solutions than it does gaming, as the the GPU is proving to not be that great at inferencing. Google's TPUs as well and numerous other outfits have products that effectively trounce anything Nvidia has at inferencing, and do it for a lot cheaper and using a lot less power. If Nvidia doesn't address this they will be a pretty insignificant player in the AI market down the road. Of course the gaming industry is only going to keep booming, especially now that e-sports is really taking off and become mainstream, and that alone can propel Nvidia long into the future, just not as much as I was hoping for without the AI market.
 
bildad said:
For the prices they are charging I expected a lot more.
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I'm inclined to agree: it's a price point problem. Personally, I think the generational incremental improvement is acceptable. I think they pulled an Icarus on the price. Even recognizing the 1080ti represented a very good value at its pricepoint, I think the 2080ti just overshot the price/spec optimization for me.
 
J3RK said:
I really don't see an issue with these cards. I mean, anyone with half a brain knew that much of the die space was dedicated to the new tech, and that this new tech would take a while to be utilized fully. The same people would also realize that a die shrunken rev coming up in the near(ish) future would be the all around sweet spot for everything on this GPU.

Also, if you're like me and running a 1070, the middle card (2080) is actually a pretty ridiculous leap forward, and if comparing the price to a 1080Ti, still a pretty decent deal at it's price, and has some additional tech to play with here and there.

No, they're not a huge leap in old games, but then Nvidia already dominated the old games in the first place. If the new tech isn't interesting to you yet, hold off for the next round of cards. If it is, or even slightly so, you still get a bit of a boost in older games too. Just not huge.

If I go from my 1070 to a 2080, I get roughly 90% to 150% improvements in older games, plus get the new tech. That doesn't seem that bad to me. I'll be paying for it for sure, but $700-800 for roughly 2x performance to what I'm running now doesn't really sound too bad. Granted that's also an X70 to X80 leap, but it's a pretty logical upgrade path for someone in my position. I'll wait for AIB cards though first, full availability, etc. before I jump.

These are still the best cards on the market, plain and simple. If you have to have the best on the market, where else are you going to go?
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The problem being VR headset resolutions/FOV are scaling FASTER than the video cards. Also the complexity of said VR games is scaling faster. So I would bypass the 20xx series if you want to do VR.
 
DigitalGriffin said:
The problem being VR headset resolutions/FOV are scaling FASTER than the video cards. Also the complexity of said VR games is scaling faster. So I would bypass the 20xx series if you want to do VR.
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That makes a lot of sense. I'm sure the next round will be better in all regards. I see nothing wrong with holding off if you're VR centric. I see nothing wrong with holding off if you want a more solid "next-round" card either.

This is one case though, where I do think the current new set of cards has a bit more value than some people might first think. It REALLY is heavily influenced by what you're currently running though. In my specific case, these cards all blow everything I have out of the water. I haven't decided 100% whether I'll jump yet, or which card, but a 2080 does look fairly attractive once the AIBs hit. I might actually start playing games above 1080 at that point. My GTX 1070 is the first card that I think actually performs well at 1080 due to the quality settings I like to play at and the fram rates. The 2080 looks like it would finally make it worthwhile to upgrade my display(s). We'll see though. I want to see some driver revisions, a few more implementations of the RTX tech, maybe Vulkan getting its update, etc. I don't really think I need to wait for a full GPU iteration, but just want to see a touch more movement. (since I'm not really hurting right now anyway)
 
Lord_Exodia said:
Might get a 2nd GTX 1080 for SLi and skip this altogether. Meh to 2080. First time I was NOT excited for a new GPU Generation release in over a decade
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MSI Gaming X $489.99 at Amazon with a $20 rebate, I picked one up to replace my 1070.
 
Knurrus said:
One reason I do not actively invest in individual stocks is that even though I could formulate a proper investing strategy, I have serious doubts that I could follow it in good as well as bad times.

I've only low cost index mutual funds, and earlier I had low cost active mutual funds as that was available to me. The closest I've come to a stock is ETF shares.
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You my friend, have investing bang on. Low cost index mutual funds are where 99% of people should be. A 60/40 stock bond mix and just forget about it. I'm like 60% in amazon, but that is because I'm a bit nuts.

I'd be wary of ETFs myself...my feeling is (invisible) frictional costs are much, much higher than one would imagine. I few years back I had direct holdings in about 20 gold miner stocks, and also in a gold miner ETF, and the gold miner stocks completely killed the performance of the ETF, despite what should be fairly similar holdings. Yes, some/much of that may well have been getting lucky with some accidental overweights etc, but my gut says frictional costs are high.

You can only do what I did if you have a cheap broker like I do though - or lots of money - as buying shares can be pricey.
 
Looks like my predictions about mediocre performance being the reason for the NDAs and the other BS with them requiring the names and addresses of reviewers were spot on. This is a crap product, with almost NO games supporting their shiny new RTX BS, and existing game performance can't justify the price tags they arrogantly attached to them. I hope this utter failure of a launch bites them HARD!
 
Nvidia is just proving what we already knew from Intel. In the absence of competition the market leader grows complacent and has no motivation to innovate. RTX, in its current form looks like Physx or hairworks all over again.

Let's make a proprietary hardware solution to a problem that doesn't exist yet.

The thing that makes me laugh the most is RTX features aren't even playable at 4k on their flagship card. What a joke. Guess I'll be waiting another year or two before I upgrade my gpu.
 
AlphaAtlas said:
Nvidia stock fell 2.6 percent on Thursday after Morgan Stanley called reviews for the new Turing gaming cards disappointing. Analyst Joseph Moore said "as review embargos broke for the new gaming products, performance improvements in older games is not the leap we had initially hoped for."

"We are surprised that the 2080 is only slightly better than the 1080ti, which has been available for over a year and is slightly less expensive," he said. "With higher clock speeds, higher core count, and 40% higher memory bandwidth, we had expected a bigger boost." As a result he expects the adoption of Nvidia's new products to be "slower" and doesn't expect "much upside" from the company's gaming business in its next two financial quarters.
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Another words you're saying mining is ho hum and we don't know if mining takes off for another round if they will buy into the RTX cards or not... Considering AMD puts up the RX Vega 64 to the 2080/2070 - Why would nVidia out do themselves, and that makes great finical sense at this time. If AMD does happen to pop a surprise out there, nVidia has the Titan RTX to kick it up a notch yet, and if need be can push out the door in the not so far away time 7nm... nVidia certainly isn't feeling unhappy over this and the fact they blew out of 2080 Ti so fast it caused week delay to shipping either...
 
damicatz said:
Ultimately, datacenter, embedded (e.g. infotainment centers for cars), and IOT is where the money is at; not in gaming. All you have to do is look at NVIDIA's website; look how far buried the Geforce stuff is in the menus compared to basically everything else. That should tell you where their priorities are these days. There was a time when the NVIDIA website was about nothing but gaming graphics.

AMD's valuation is based on Intel being a rudderless ship allowing them to come in and claim market share. Brian Krzanich was an unmitigated disaster for Intel; under his reign they lost their manufacturing lead for probably one of the first times ever (at one time, Intel was years ahead of the competition in terms of manufacturing technology). Couple that with the fact that they haven't significantly changed their processor architecture since at least Haswell, AMD coming out with Ryzen, and the Spectre/Meltdown stuff and it has not been a good year for Intel. When Intel announces that they are hoping to keep AMD marketshare "under 20%" in a market where they have 99% marketshare currently (servers), you know things aren't good for them because they are facing a war on two fronts; AMD on the high performance side and ARM coming at them from the other end for mobile/power efficient chips.
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actually, their last major overhall was 10 years ago with nehalem and of course 2011 on the mainstream side with sandy.
 
Considering it's up 1300% in the last 3 years I think they'll be fine.
 
The performance of 2080Ti is mighty impressive, true single card solution for 4K gaming. It doubles and sometimes triples the performance of vanilla 1080. But with that price its not something a normal gamer can buy on whim. It is still impressive card though, IMHO. But what is not impressive is vanilla 2080. What the hell was Nvidia thinking when designing and pricing that card!? 2080 is what 2070 should have been!
 
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I'm going to reserve judgement on these cards for another +3 months, once the drivers have had a chance to mature a little. I am not unhappy with my current 1080 @ 1440p for what I am playing. That said, going from my 1080 to a 2080 for what I am playing I could see upwards of 30% but my eyes are shit so going from a low of 63 fps to a low of 95 fps isn't going to change anything I doubt my monitor would even be able to refresh that fast to begin with, I went for screen size not refresh rate when picking it out.
 
Chaos Machine said:
Nvidia is just proving what we already knew from Intel. In the absence of competition the market leader grows complacent and has no motivation to innovate. RTX, in its current form looks like Physx or hairworks all over again.

Let's make a proprietary hardware solution to a problem that doesn't exist yet.

The thing that makes me laugh the most is RTX features aren't even playable at 4k on their flagship card. What a joke. Guess I'll be waiting another year or two before I upgrade my gpu.
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Its going to be a riot when the uninformed finally get to turn on Ray Tracing only to find out the that performance sucks.
 
Krenum said:
Its going to be a riot when the uninformed finally get to turn on Ray Tracing only to find out the that performance sucks.
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Let me be clear though, that Technology is interesting to me but it sounds like we still aren't there from a hardware standpoint so the way I look at it now as a gimmick used to pull attention away from the pretty meh performance and outright dick-level price hikes
 
SomeoneElse said:
of good those signed NDA's did......I suspect they had them in place in ord
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DigitalGriffin said:
I think it's the RTX that killed the improvements in raw speed. I'm a little underwhelmed as well as well. I was hoping for a little more.
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Tardigrade said:
You my friend, have investing bang on. Low cost index mutual funds are where 99% of people should be. A 60/40 stock bond mix and just forget about it. I'm like 60% in amazon, but that is because I'm a bit nuts.

I'd be wary of ETFs myself...my feeling is (invisible) frictional costs are much, much higher than one would imagine. I few years back I had direct holdings in about 20 gold miner stocks, and also in a gold miner ETF, and the gold miner stocks completely killed the performance of the ETF, despite what should be fairly similar holdings. Yes, some/much of that may well have been getting lucky with some accidental overweights etc, but my gut says frictional costs are high.

You can only do what I did if you have a cheap broker like I do though - or lots of money - as buying shares can be pricey.
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You can vary that amount. If you exceed 20x's your retirement income target, you can ride it out as all stocks and live perpetually.

.03 * .40 + .08 * .60 = 6% effective return for you. But it's risky the closer you get towards retirement.

The best models for most people however is to go more towards bonds as you get closer to retirement.
 
Chaos Machine said:
Let me be clear though, that Technology is interesting to me but it sounds like we still aren't there from a hardware standpoint so the way I look at it now as a gimmick used to pull attention away from the pretty meh performance and outright dick-level price hikes
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It is an interesting concept. But from what I've seen, absolutely does not warrant the price. I still can't wrap my mind around how Nvidia would be so brazen to release a product specifically branded and marketed to a technology, and still not have it available at launch. This will go down as one of the biggest blunders in graphics card history.
 
Is it possible that games just need a more optimized driver to get better frame rates and utilize the new hardware? This is the optimistic side of me asking because I really wanted this card to push 1440P frame rates higher than those benchmarks.
 
I am waiting for more developers to start implementing the Vulkan 1.1 spec, its new unified memory should fix a lot of the scaling issues with SLI and it will implement a lot of the features on these cards to improve efficiency. I think this is a case where the hardware is out before the software is there to support it, so I am not writing off these new cards just yet but I would not be surprised if nVidia came out 8 months now with the 2085 or 2090 series cards, otherwise they launched themselves into a corner then again I haven't seen much from AMD to counter these so.....
 
damicatz said:
Ultimately, datacenter, embedded (e.g. infotainment centers for cars), and IOT is where the money is at; not in gaming. All you have to do is look at NVIDIA's website; look how far buried the Geforce stuff is in the menus compared to basically everything else. That should tell you where their priorities are these days. There was a time when the NVIDIA website was about nothing but gaming graphics.
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I think your close to the mark.

Datacenter/embedded/etc -- that's where the ~growth~ is. The money isn't there right now. More than half of nVidia's money does come from consumer/gaming products, and it's their largest revenue source by far in all their current marketplaces.

Those other areas are important because they are growing segments. In Wall Street, if you aren't growing, your dead, so nVidia has to show ways that it can expand it's revenue. Those other market niches, individually, may never get to be as big as Gaming is for them -- that's ok, so long as they can keep the total revenue numbers going up, either by growing existing market segments, or adding new market segments.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2019

Revenue is expected to be $3.25 billion
Gaming revenue ... $1.80 billion.
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It's a small distinction... nVidia is after revenue ultimately, but they aren't betting that any of those particular segments will overtake gaming. They just need to diversify revenue sources so that overall revenue continues to grow. Growth is the key word.
 
kilroy67 said:
If people think thats bad wait until they see the cards resale value.
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That's a point that doesn't appear to have received much attention yet. If you buy now with plans to resell once the next gen is out, you're either gonna be able to resell them for a chunk of change, or end up having to take a loss. The next 12-24 months should end up being somewhat interesting depending on developments moving forward. Me, I've got a call into Chauncey Gardiner for advice.
 
orange_monster said:
dang it. im on a amd 6300/hd 7950 from 5 years ago and things are finally getting unplayable. I was really counting on this release to be a monster. I need the 2070 to be a monster, I can only afford to do this every 5 years lol. I hate them.
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Get a Ryzen 6-core + Mobo and DDR4, an RX 580 and one of Samsung's Quantum Dot FreeSync Full HD monitors and I promise you'll be quite happy.

(I really hope you were not planning to put the 2070 in a system with a Piledriver CPU like the 6300, that would be wasted money)
 
wyqtor said:
Get a Ryzen 6-core + Mobo and DDR4, an RX 580 and one of Samsung's Quantum Dot FreeSync Full HD monitors and I promise you'll be quite happy.

(I really hope you were not planning to put the 2070 in a system with a Piledriver CPU like the 6300, that would be wasted money)
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Agreed. You need to upgrade your core components first before you add an expensive graphics card to the mix. that 6300 is going to be a heavy bottleneck.
 
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iamjanco said:
That's a point that doesn't appear to have received much attention yet. If you buy now with plans to resell once the next gen is out, you're either gonna be able to resell them for a chunk of change, or end up having to take a loss. The next 12-24 months should end up being somewhat interesting depending on developments moving forward. Me, I've got a call into Chauncey Gardiner for advice.
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It depends on when the new cards come out, how good they are and especially price. If the 7nm shrink makes for a cheaper cards (normal prices) and more powerful it will make the 20 series almost worthless. With the price of these new cards and the possibility of a new gen within a year or so I think the resale is going to be low. The current 10 series is holding their value nicely though, in fact it looks as if the 1080TI's are going up in price, with the 1080 and 1070 about the same.
 
I see the 2080ti doing okay. The top tier GPUs are always expensive and most that buy them don't care much about price.

The 2070 can't be that impressive, judging by how the 2080 performs. As much as I'd like to I am not sure I can swing $500-600 for one when the jump likely isn't going to be that big.

Unless they cannibalize the 2080 and make it almost as fast I see it receiving a similar reception to the 2080 and 2080ti. Over priced.
 
Flogger23m said:
I see the 2080ti doing okay. The top tier GPUs are always expensive and most that buy them don't care much about price.

The 2070 can't be that impressive, judging by how the 2080 performs. As much as I'd like to I am not sure I can swing $500-600 for one when the jump likely isn't going to be that big.

Unless they cannibalize the 2080 and make it almost as fast I see it receiving a similar reception to the 2080 and 2080ti. Over priced.
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But top tier, the gear for those that are price-agnostic is more like a Titan offering, don't you think?
 
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