Canalys: AMD Will Surpass Intel on CPU Performance Next Year

Megalith

Megalith

24-bit/48kHz
Staff member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
13,000
Global technology analyst Canalys, whose clients include Amazon, Google, and Samsung, believes AMD will take the CPU crown in as little as a year: leaked internal training documents aimed at partners suggest the channel should “anticipate the possibility of AMD surpassing Intel on CPU performance in 2019.” While no specific product is named, it should be safe to assume Canalys’s prediction revolves around the 7nm Zen 2.

That’s a somewhat bold prediction and suggests that anyone recommending purchasing decisions to their customers ought to seriously consider AMD as a genuine alternative to Intel in both the professional and consumer space. The leaked document has seemingly been taken down, but some slides from the presentation have been saved online.
 
If Intel doesn't get 10nm online and get their new architecture out, then yeah, spin two of Zen should be nipping at Skylake's heels if not passing a bit ahead.
 
It reminds me of 2003 ish all over again. Intel was hurting because they only had the p4's around. AMD was killing them with the athlon 64's. I remember amd's advertising laughing at Intel making jokes in good fun. Then Intel came back with the Core 2 Duos and showed AMD never bite the hand that feeds ya. I managed a PC store back then and we built the first Core 2 duo. I think it was the 1.87 GHz one and we could not belive how this CPU was 1000 mhz slower than the athlon 64 x2 4800+ and smoked every benchmark we could find at the time. Intel too me will come back again with something that spanks them. I think its all being kept hush hush with no media or anything leaks. Yes AMD has 32 cores and 64 core cpus out. The problem is it might perform better but its only by 10 to 30% better. Nothing 2 fold faster. I really think intel should drop the Core I series completely. It's one big confusing hell. Core i3 i5 i7 i9. Then need a new name period with simple easy to understand naming. Like a Pentium name or Unitium or something cool. Keep the cpu in one socket for all its series. Intel owns most Arm cpus and some risc tech. Kinda wish they would make a new RISC chip that would generate hardly any heat and also performance threw the roof.
 
That's a prediction I would not put any money on. And it is trivial at the same time. It is not about 2019 nor about 2020 it is about stepping up each year and make improvements to Zen cores as long as that keeps happening being ahead or slightly behind, does it really make that much of a difference if you can not progress the next year...
 
the next Ryzen's seem like a great combo with already good performance now on 7nm and fewer vulnerabilities than intel. If I was buying I'd buy that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GHRTW
like this
If AMD could put QuickSync type technology within Ryzen, it would be the perfect CPU for my needs. I love the multi-threaded capability of the Ryzen. But QuickSync is amazing when you want to use it on Intel.
 
westrock2000 said:
If AMD could put QuickSync type technology within Ryzen, it would be the perfect CPU for my needs. I love the multi-threaded capability of the Ryzen. But QuickSync is amazing when you want to use it on Intel.
Click to expand...

Main issue is that they don't put more than four cores on their APUs- they really should put a GPU with all of the Radeon fixed-function stuff, which includes transcoding tech that's likely superior to QuickSync, alongside a minimum number of GPU cores just to make sure all video outputs are powered on every consumer Ryzen.

Maybe Zen2/Ryzen3 will get something like that?
 
Stoly said:
I thought AMD was already faster than intel with ThreadRipper.
Click to expand...

Not for single threaded software which is still the majority.

TR is only faster because it offers more cores at the same price point. If you disregard price (yes I know not realistic) and just do a core for core comparison intel is still ahead right now.

Zen 2 should make the ST gap equal or more closer.
 
So will AMD be beating Intel performance before or after the dozens of security patches for all of Intel's speculative execution shortcuts?
 
TangledThornz said:
Lisa Lu is doing a heckuva job with AMD. I just hope she hammers nVidia next. That being said, I expect a titanic clash between AMD, Intel and Nvidia in 2020 that will greatly benefit us.
Click to expand...
Nvidia needs competition. Its good for the consumer and the platform.
Heck, if AMD would not have Ryzen (bad) to the challenge, I think Intel would have remained lazy and sat on their duffs.
 
I'm looking forward to building a Zen2 system - from the [H] used parts department. In 2024.
 
I suspect intel will still have slightly better IPC and higher burst clocks but AMD may close the gap enough that it's not all that significant in real world applications.
 
  • Like
Reactions: N4CR
like this
I think you can argue they already have. For the big custom server projects these companies would be looking at.

When you take into account all the security fixes required to run Intel securely AMD and even ARM solutions start looking very attractive.

For players like Amazon, Google, and Samsung who have the on staff coding support to optimize their custom software for AMD or ARM... Intel isn't the default most attractive option.

The same companies have also been heavily testing ARM solutions... for much the same reasons, if you have the internal coding team to optimize specific workloads. I would argue x86 is one of the least attractive options Intel or AMD.
Amazon has been toying on and off creating their own ARM server chips for years. For companies that size picking up a ARM licence for a small team too build custom chips for your custom server solutions isn't really all that crazy.
 
andrewaggb said:
I suspect intel will still have slightly better IPC and higher burst clocks but AMD may close the gap enough that it's not all that significant in real world applications.
Click to expand...
This is what I'm expecting realistically.
They already are as fast in a few workloads and games, so catching that last 5-10% average delta shouldn't be too hard - similar gains this generation were made almost 100% from memory controller tweaks and tiny frequency bump, so I think they can easily bridge this gap with a little bitty node shrink ;)
 
IdiotInCharge said:
If Intel doesn't get 10nm online and get their new architecture out, then yeah, spin two of Zen should be nipping at Skylake's heels if not passing a bit ahead.
Click to expand...
After installing security updates in both OS/Bios for intel, I'm pretty sure AMD will end up taking the crown, but it all depends on what clocks they can hit. If they can hit 4.8 AMD takes the lead.
 
Anybody find this Ryzen Without limits image as a wallpaper? It looks amazing.
1537027852q98zkldo0r_1_1.jpg
 
Makaveli@BETA said:
Not for single threaded software which is still the majority.

TR is only faster because it offers more cores at the same price point. If you disregard price (yes I know not realistic) and just do a core for core comparison intel is still ahead right now.

Zen 2 should make the ST gap equal or more closer.
Click to expand...

Pretty much this. I went ahead with a 2950x because for certain things I like to do (non gaming related) it's faster. When it comes to stuff like games, for the most part, it's slower than Intel. But what I really like about AMD's platform are the 60 PCI lanes. With Intel, you're stuck with 40-44 lanes if you go the super expensive route.
 
Pieter3dnow said:
That's a prediction I would not put any money on. And it is trivial at the same time. It is not about 2019 nor about 2020 it is about stepping up each year and make improvements to Zen cores as long as that keeps happening being ahead or slightly behind, does it really make that much of a difference if you can not progress the next year...
Click to expand...
I wouldn't short change precision boost and 7nm. That'll help tremendously in thread performance. They pretty much can clock speed thread performance hot spots according to needs dynamically. The die shrink will only make precision boost seem more impressive.
 
Sound good, bit i will believe it when i see it.

I am still building a AMD system now, and i am not sure due to my flaky memory but i think it will be the first all AMD machine.
In previous machines i think i might have had a nvidia GFX card in my athlon and opteron machines,,,,, and i sure as hell cant remember what GFX i had in the 700 MHZ ( was it slot A or Socket A it was called )
 
TangledThornz said:
Lisa Lu is doing a heckuva job with AMD. I just hope she hammers nVidia next. That being said, I expect a titanic clash between AMD, Intel and Nvidia in 2020 that will greatly benefit us.
Click to expand...

we can hope but realistically how will AMD do that?
 
renz496 said:
we can hope but realistically how will AMD do that?
Click to expand...

If anyone can push an AMD team to build something interesting its her. She is with out a doubt the smartest most capable CEO in tech. Her focus was on the CPU side of things out of the gate with AMD... but now that that side of things is righted she may have more time to dedicate to the GPU business.

I fully expect she has something cooking already.. will it be ready in the next few months of course not. However if she doesn't have something cooking to spoil the Intel GPU launch I would be shocked.
 
Oh I sure hope so! Competition is good! If AMD CPUs will be genuinely faster than Intel, then we can go back to the days of the athlon 64 and athlon x2. It took a while for Intel to catch up then...
 
ChadD said:
If anyone can push an AMD team to build something interesting its her. She is with out a doubt the smartest most capable CEO in tech. Her focus was on the CPU side of things out of the gate with AMD... but now that that side of things is righted she may have more time to dedicate to the GPU business.

I fully expect she has something cooking already.. will it be ready in the next few months of course not. However if she doesn't have something cooking to spoil the Intel GPU launch I would be shocked.
Click to expand...

So is JHH. the position nvidia had right now in graphic world is because of JHH lead. That's why i asked "realistically" how AMD will hammer nvidia when nvidia as a company did not operate the way intel does. AMD talk about MCM style GPU and nvidia already have something on the market that work based on that idea even if that solution right now still far from the ideal "sticking" two die together. About two years ago AMD talking about how with low level API it is possible to "add" the amount of VRAM in multi GPU (though they never move out of theory talk and show real demo how it works) And now nvidia actually delivering that ahead of AMD.
 
Endurance-vm said:
Oh I sure hope so! Competition is good! If AMD CPUs will be genuinely faster than Intel, then we can go back to the days of the athlon 64 and athlon x2. It took a while for Intel to catch up then...
Click to expand...

Then we can go back to AMD charging Extreme Edition prices!
 
motqalden said:
I will buy the best bang for the buck, but i feel a lot better when its AMD i am throwing my money at.
Click to expand...
Why? Is it supporting an underdog? Does intel kill pandas? It should always be about — if one is rational — the chip that performs the best in your given workload for the price point you’re in.
 
IcePickFreak said:
Quiet! This time it's happening! :LOL:
Click to expand...
Lol it actually is.
AMD owning Intel in HEDT and within 5-10% on average with parity or better in some games... other than the 5% FPS 240p e-sport larpers, there is very little reason at all to justify an Intel purchase currently.
'12nm' now and 7nm drop in upgrade next year? Bet intel won't let you upgrade the 9000 series platform, it's already a drop in for the 8 series (how strange that happened after no drop in for 170-270 series)...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top