Shintai
Supreme [H]ardness
- Joined
- Jul 1, 2016
- Messages
- 5,678
CFL may come as soon as august.
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Would be awesome. I'd really like to upgrade, but the options seems lacklustre.CFL may come as soon as august.
It's happening guys. Mainstream 6C/12T with top notch IPC as soon as August.
You guys crack me up, thinking this chip will be cheap, likely priced between 600 to 700 bucks.
You guys crack me up, thinking this chip will be cheap, likely priced between 600 to 700 bucks.
350$ for a top bin CFL-S 6T/12T.
I'd sell my Ryzen rig for that. That would be the end of AMD for sure. There will be an Intel fanboy party the next day...
...then a year later, Intel will charge $1000 for a 5% performance bump, because no competition.
That's now how economics works. Same reason a 1080ti is 699.
Oh whatever, man. If you want to posit that monopolies are a-okay, and just dandy, and aren't going to bend you over on price... well, that wouldn't be wise, but whatever floats your boat. How economics works, in this case, is that monopolies suck ass.
Nvidia has to behave on the off chance AMD might do something intelligent. Yeah, not very likely, I admit, but they still have to consider the possibility. AMD sucks as a competitor. Ye gods do I wish we had better competition man. But defective competition is better than none at all. Mark my words, when AMD dies -- and die it will, if you're right about Coffee Lake, and the naysayers are right about Vega being a steaming pile of sh*t -- innovation will slow, and prices will go up.
That, my friend, is exactly how economics works.
You can portrait it as you want. But there is an optimal price/volume and innovation that the segment requires. And its not 1000$ for 5%.
And CPUs pretty much haven't been cheaper in history since 2006 and up till now.
Intel, Nvidia and AMD isn't selling tap water or something else with static demand. It requires a demand that's fueled by both price and innovation. Else people dont upgrade. And since its a high cashflow industry, the companies would go bankrupt fast.
You make no sense DuronBurgerMan. You admit you cant afford a 6900k and yet your mad that AMD gave you a 8 core with almost the same performance for less then half the price and your upset about it cause it didnt beat the 6900k in all things.
These guys that all want Skylake-x and coffee lake will take their motherboard ram rodding upgrade and pay extra for the pleasure of it.
So either pony up and buy a freaking 6900k or stop going around crying in your beer cause you cant afford it.
Only thing I can say is the next ZEN chip will plug into your motherboard for a easy upgrade a option you pretty much never get with Intel.
every generation or two
Isn't that 3 generations these days?
Nvidia sells Titan Xp cards to some folks who already had Titan X Pascals (I hate the confusing Nvidia Titan nomenclature, but whatever). That's what, a difference of 8-10%? Tops? For like $1200? People spend money to get the best.
What a coincidence, that's about when AMD started to suck.
Nah, competition spurs innovation, and forces higher sensitivity to price. The monopolist can manipulate supply, because he has control over the sole supply. In turn, he can choose to sell low volume, at high margins, or high volume at low(er) margins, or pretty much whatever he feels like doing, because he's a monopolist. He doesn't have to worry about being undercut, or out-innovated by a competitor. AMD exerted pricing pressure on Intel even during the days AMD really sucked. Bulldozer was sh*t, but at a certain point, if the prices for the alternatives are high enough, people will buy the sh*t.
If Intel became a monopoly, they can play the market however they like. People will still pay. The demand isn't static, and they never have full control over that, but they will have full control over the supply, and can manipulate it as they see fit.
No, my friend... you and juanrga did indeed convince me that AMD stills sucks, and Ryzen ain't what it was cracked up to be. So take heart. I was wrong to defend it, and you were right to sh*t on it. But it will take much more to sell me on the idea that monopolies are somehow good or even neutral for the industry.
And the Titan X sells how many cards?
So in short, the Titan X sales, including both generations have pathetic revenue compared.
And as I said its high cash flow companies. Without the revenue they go bankrupt. Plain simple. Your ideas of a monopoly in a dynamic market is wrong. Also there are other CPU makers than Intel and AMD. My 6700K could last the next 20 years without upgrade. So could my 1080 if the price turned to shit. Again, dead companies long ago. They wouldn't even last a year or 2.
So no matter if they are a monopoly or not they need to:
Price it for the best profit/volume ratio (This keeps prices down by itself).
Create incentives for upgrading (Innovation).
For point 1: Halo products are higher margin, lower volume. Revenue is great, sure, but the end result a company desires is profit. Selling 100 cards that grant a margin of $100 is the same as selling 10,000 cards with a margin of $1. The point is, if Intel (and Nvidia for that matter) became a monopoly, they could play the supply market however they pleased. The x86 CPU makers other than Intel and AMD are out of the performance game. You think Via is going to step in? No way, man.
For point 2: Are you really arguing in favor of monopolies? Dude, that's not just wrong, it's crazy.
For point 3: What enthusiast would be OK not upgrading their CPU and GPU for 20 years?
The thing you're missing here is that Intel has more or less already been doing this. Every year or so, they offer a 5-10% bump. To get it, you usually need a new platform (every 2 gens). So new mobo, probably new RAM too. And Intel has somehow made out pretty well these last several years doing it. Now, you can argue the technical reasons why the CPU market has slowed down a lot (and I wouldn't disagree with them), but the point is, the market is still buying new CPUs, and Intel is still making money doing this. So they can do that.
1. But still not making the money. Not even close. You advocate for a business disaster as something companies would wish to pursue.
2. No, but I am telling you that your ideas are wrong from a business perspective and have no merit in reality.
3. The enthusiast segment is tiny. And plenty of people wont. Just as they dont all buy 1000$ CPUs and 1200$ GPUs.
All these companies knows exactly what the optimal price ranges are.
No, monopolies are no good.
Duopolies isn't any better.
Your idea of competition vanished a long time ago for CPUs and GPUs. A real long time ago when the companies with a useable alternative product in the same category withdrew one way or the other.
Duopolies aren't ideal by any stretch, but they are better than monopolies (at least, so long as they avoid becoming a cartel - see: record labels). That is like saying a solid log is better than diarrhea. It is a true statement, but missing the fact that much better options exist. I very much lament that we're down to Intel and AMD on the one hand, and Nvidia and AMD on the other. But I'll take AMD hanging around, even if they release crappy products a lot of the time, over no competition at all. AMD being around generally serves to keep Intel and Nvidia mostly honest. I say "mostly" because God only knows where we'd be today if more competition did exist. But that's all speculation, anyway.
The market has much to lose and nothing to gain if AMD goes under.
A duopoly is pretty much the worst from both sides. And it hurts innovation due to the lack of risk willingness. But they still keep the socalled monopoly pricing. In short it doesn't matter if we move to a monopoly, it may actually be a big benefit from the consumer view because the risk factor for innovation will increase while we keep the same prices. 980TI and Fury X wasn't priced the same by accident for example. Nor is GP106 and Polaris 10/20.
What you should wish for is more companies to join the scene if you want anything else.
Of course I wish that (again, where have I expressed otherwise?). In the meantime, it'd be nice to avoid worsening the situation by eliminating the last remaining real competitor. In your example, if two GPUs perform similarly, there will be pricing pressure. After a time, one may try to undercut the other a little bit to boost sales volume. Furthermore, if AMD releases a card that competes with a high level Nvidia card, it pushes Nvidia to hurry along with an even higher end card. So both innovation and pricing are pushed along a little. My thought is the 1080 Ti was pushed to a (relatively) lower price point at least partly because Nvidia wanted to ensure they were one step ahead of AMD's Vega lineup. Maybe Vega is crap anyway, but Nvidia can't take the risk. So we get a nice card for less than the old Titan X Pascal. Not a bad deal!
Not ideal, to only have two competitors. But better than just one.
But, my friend, if you want to startup a CPU or GPU company, I wish you all the luck in the world. God knows, we could use more of 'em.
But what you write doesn't happen. Because duopolies are just as bad a monopolies in terms of pricing.
The 1080TI is priced where it makes most money. Vega isn't even a thought. Volta isn't coming soon due to AMD either. Its coming because Nvidia needs to sell new cards so people upgrade again. Same applies for CPUs.
They don't exert pricing pressure on one another? They don't push each other to innovate faster? Pull the other one.
ARM is a monopoly. You cant make an ARM CPU without shopping at ARM Holdings. Works fine for them and your smartphone, fridge, washer, dryer, TV etc doesn't it?
The price segment doesn't really change does it? Sure the one with worse metrics have to compensate. But you still pay the same if the other company is there or not.
What duopolies however do is killing innovation. Because with only 2 companies, any failed high risk innovation = other company takes all. And you can only lose/gain share to 1. This is why you want more companies if you want high risk innovation.
ARM never had more innovation than since it became a monopoly.
No it isn't. ARM faces competition from Intel's Atom line, and a number of other products. ARM is dominant in its space, but by no means exclusive. If ARM Holdings charged too much for the license fee, folks would use something else. Also, given that ARM essentially just licenses out to other companies means that there's a lot of competition in the implementation side.
Also, I've a bone to pick with the phone industry right now, but that's another conversation topic.
ARM has innovation because it's comparatively easy to get a license, and because other architectures are just waiting to snap up the market share should ARM fail. I mean take the Smart TVs and devices like the Fire Stick, Roku, etc... these platforms could just as easily use an Atom, just like the Intel Compute Stick line. In fact, I very nearly did that instead of the Fire Stick for my old "dumb" TV.
ARM is as locked as x86 is. Its pretty much the 2 last instruction sets left in the world and both are very tight locked to their software ecosystems with very little interaction. One you get from ARM Holdings, the other from AMD/Intel. And ARM is an example of a monopoly.
And its funny you mention that ARM is price sensitive, yet it doesn't apply for x86? Its the exact same reason why SKL-X, CFL-S etc got its natural price points. And for innovation, same thing.
So I think we are done on the subject.
I should note that, as an aside, I've been very impressed with Intel's low power, small form factor products. They are innovating in this space much more than they have in the desktop space of late. It's a great example of what Intel can do when it feels heavy competitive pressure!
Even though I wound up using the Fire Stick for the crappy upstairs TV, I do still want to play around with one of the Compute Sticks, just to see what I can do with one. So I'll probably buy one just for sh*ts and giggles sooner or later.
350$ for a top bin CFL-S 6T/12T.
Existence of G4560 contradicts your argument.Haha a 4 core 8 threads will sell for that. Their 6 core 12 threads will sell for quite a bit more, Intel has no interest in giving you a deal unless Ryzen crimps their sales before they launch it. Long as Intel thinks they have the fastest product and sales remain good they wont lower prices a inch.
If Intel wanted to bury AMD forever, all they'd need to do is sell the chip for $500 or less. Even if Intel lost money, it might be worth it to them to put AMD in the grave.
Haha a 4 core 8 threads will sell for that. Their 6 core 12 threads will sell for quite a bit more, Intel has no interest in giving you a deal unless Ryzen crimps their sales before they launch it. Long as Intel thinks they have the fastest product and sales remain good they wont lower prices a inch.
Existence of G4560 contradicts your argument.
On the mainstream platform I expect.
i7 = 6C/12T
i5 = 4C/8T, possible 6C/6T.
i3 = 4C/4T
Pentium 2C/4T (Already there)
Celeron 2C/2T, possible 2C/4T.