They only possibly make more money from consumer side when they have massive scale sales.
This was back in 2011
Nvidia's flagship GPU business continues to improve, however, Nvidia added. The company's GPU sales grew 5.5 percent to $614.0 million, while professional products (including Tesla) grew 3.1 percent to $203.6 million. Consumer products, including the Tegra embedded chips, grew 32.6 percent to $68.8 million.
So consumer beats professional by 3 to 1. I can understand a company wanting to grow all segments of their sales but the big money is in consumer level cards.
 
Rumors are rumors, but if we have software that is coming out specific to Pascal, which there is software coming out in June for those cards, maybe is a bit more credible?
I hope you are correct, I have been wanting to upgrade for a long time.
 
Not necessarily, new process, new architecture, and giant size combine to suggest they're getting very poor yields. Which explains why they're targeting the very high margin HPC business first!

Nvidia already disabled some of the GP100 to compensate for poor yields, but they'll be left with tons of chips that can't meet P100 standards. Most likely they're saving those to bin for Titans, wouldn't you think?
That was part of my point regarding yields, but that is not the only reason they target HPC business.
You agree the last hardware that was truly applicable for FP64 and more directed at HPC/professionals was Kepler and how old is that?

And we will only see Titans when the yields and also the HPC/workstation market are moderately well supplied in terms of demand.
I am positive about 970/980 replacement within next 2-4 months, but I doubt we will see a Pascal Titan this year unless it is at a much higher price and it would still not be until Q4 IMO.
Cheers
 
I doubt we will see a Pascal Titan this year unless it is at a much higher price and it would still not be until Q4 IMO.

I predict we'll see a Pascal Titan as soon as they have extra GP100 chips that no one wants to buy as a Tesla. Could be Q4, but it's totally based on demand.
 
This was back in 2011
Nvidia's flagship GPU business continues to improve, however, Nvidia added. The company's GPU sales grew 5.5 percent to $614.0 million, while professional products (including Tesla) grew 3.1 percent to $203.6 million. Consumer products, including the Tegra embedded chips, grew 32.6 percent to $68.8 million.
So consumer beats professional by 3 to 1. I can understand a company wanting to grow all segments of their sales but the big money is in consumer level cards.

The big money long term is in Tesla type server-workstation involved in co-processing (cloud-research-AI-modelling) and not just visualisation.
Also note Tesla with Kepler saw their HPC type of sales increase 20% year on year.

Think on this, if the PC market stagnates then where is the growth going to come from?
Without growth or a strong diverse business investors and analysts pull out.
I really should find his charts presenting how much future value there is in HPC/research sales/supercomputing-cloud/AI-modelling/etc.
Cheers
 
I predict we'll see a Pascal Titan as soon as they have extra GP100 chips that no one wants to buy as a Tesla. Could be Q4, but it's totally based on demand.
Yeah feel the same, balance between yield, supporting all aspects of the HPC-professional market including cloud and research solutions, and demand in both that-more standard professional workstation-consumers.
Cheers
 
I'm not meaning to pick on you, but what is this based on?
Well how you can you be so critical with the lack of consumer Pascal news and yet base that on nothing when all the events to date are more professional/research/CUDA/etc based?
But seriously,
if they are managing to fabricate and sell the Tesla GP100 do you think they cannot fab the smaller die GPUs?
We know the GP100 works and it exists, and in fact is being sold direct by NVIDIA to the HPC-supercomputer-research type base very soon (2017 was more involving AIBs and a broader spectrum of servers).
So technically there is no reason a 970/980 pascal cannot exist, and if there is not enough GP100 silicon then for consumers it makes sense to release the products below that that provide best profit margin in consumer market.
Just to add, I thought they released the Maxwell Titan X after the 980, so we may be seeing that again and reinforces the point why there is no Titan Pascal equivalent announced at GDC that you feel is a trend.

So rumours-sources pertaining to the 970/980 replacement can be deemed to have more weight as we have a GPU that exists and works, and that GP100 is more difficult/costly to manufacturer in these early days of 16nm.

Do you really think TSMC and NVIDIA can only fab-manufacturer one die-GPU at 14nm?
And that one being the most challenging one to do as well.
I do not have time to post the most relevant reported rumours, but I do like whycry analysis at Videocardz.com which makes for good summary-speculation on what to expect rather than those rumours: NVIDIA's 1st Generation Pascal speculation | VideoCardz.com
Cheers
 
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I'm not meaning to pick on you, but what is this based on?
Also just remembered,
they also showed a small die Pascal GPU at the same conference this week in the PX 2.
So actually that is two real Pascal GPUs shown this week; the Tesla P100 and also a model below the replacement 980, possibly a replacement to Maxwell GM206 according to many reported sites.
Again that GPU was shown in the context as it relates to professional world and that of NVIDIA's automotive drive solution.
Cheers
 
That said I am surprised they are even at this stage with a large die/high power/high clock Pascal and I look forward to seeing what response there will be from Samsung-GF/AMD in next few months (if at all).

Yeah, I think EVERYONE (not in the know, of course) was pretty damn surprised (Heck I bet even Charlie was caught off guard this time) that they are coming out of the gate with a 600mm^2 chip.
 
Yeah, I think EVERYONE (not in the know, of course) was pretty damn surprised (Heck I bet even Charlie was caught off guard this time) that they are coming out of the gate with a 600mm^2 chip.
That gate is 6+ months away, still surprising...?
Small-die consumer Pascal chips could hit the market before GP100 does.
 
That gate is 6+ months away, still surprising...?
Small-die consumer Pascal chips could hit the market before GP100 does.
It's in volume production NOW, last week nobody would have predicted that anyone(other than Intel) would have a 600+mm^2 finfet chip currently in volume production.

EDIT: Although I will add that yeah I am sure there will be smaller die chips in the consumer market before we see GP100 in the consumer market. The only reason that this even makes sense for them is because they are making so much money on each one sold.

I mean let's take apart the $129,000 DGX-1:
2 x E5 2698 v3 -- Price N/A on ARK, but based on the prices of similar models lets say $3000 each
16 x 32GB LRDIM DDR4 -- Cheapest is $214 on newegg, they probably get some discount so lets call it $200 ea
4 x Samsung PM863 1.92TB -- Google search says these go for about $1000 each
2 x Infiniband EDR Cards -- Google searchs says about $1,000 for a 2-port card, so we need 2
Let's say about $1000 for the mobo, incudling dual 10gbE, and the NVLink carrier card
And then lets say another $2500 for the case and PSU's.

That's pretty much the whole system, minus the P100's.

Code:
2 x E5 2698 v3                      = 2 x $3,000  =   $6,000
16 x 32GB LRDIM DDR4                = 16 x  $200  =   $3,200
4 x Samsung PM863 1.92TB            = 4 x $1,000  =   $4,000
2 x Infiniband EDR Dual Port Cards  = 2 x $1,000  =   $2,000
1 x Mobo/dual 10gbe/NVLink Carrier  = 1 x $1,000  =   $1,000
1 x Case/PSU's                      = 1 x $2,500  =   $2,500

TOTAL                                             =  $18,700

Retail System Price                               = $129,000
Minus base system cost ($18,700)                  = $110,300
Divide by 8                                       =  $13,787.50

So, each P100 assembly is sold for roughly $13,787.50, and of course some of that cost is the HBM, the power supply parts, and the PCB and connectors.
The PCB, connectors, and power supply circuitry is going to cost about $100-$150, the majority of that being the high-speed connectors. I will go with $125
I am not sure how much the HBM2 costs, I tried registering on dramexchange but I am getting errors, but I can't see the cost of it being much more than $100-$150, and that is high-balling it. I will go with $125

So, we get to about $13,537.50 rough selling price PER GP100 GPU, including packaging costs (the Chip-On-Wafer-On-Substrate stuff)
I am pretty sure an entire 16nmff wafer costs less than $5,000 -- so even if they are getting only ONE GP100 out of each wafer, they are still doubling their money.
They are probably getting about 5-10, and of course as time goes on yields (and thus supply) will go up.

So yeah, dey be makin BANK on this, heh.

YES, these are estimates, but it put's us in the ballpark.
 
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It's in volume production NOW, last week nobody would have predicted that anyone(other than Intel) would have a 600+mm^2 finfet chip currently in volume production.

"Small Supercomputer in-a-box" volumes are not the same as "Consumer" volumes :D

The price will remain astronomical until (1) those Supercomputer needs are satisfied and (2) the yields go up to the point where they can enable the whole chip.

And while the split in REVENUE is 3 to 1 in favor of consumer business, you can bet the PROFITS are not. Those profits are the reason Nvidia can AFFORD to build a monster like this.

That said, while the announcement of GP100 before GP104 is unexpected, it's not unheard of. It just depends on how far behind they get with the big chip. I'm sure GP104 was made in-parallel.
 
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So... I have a buyer interested in my card willing to pay 580 euros.... I'm very tempted to agree, going to delay my decision till GTC is over but damn... That's a lot money, 60 euros less than what I paid for it in October. On the other hand, I'm on a 570 until pascal launches

sell it asap
 
See my revised post above for some cost breakdowns. They are producing this chip for, presumably, not just HPC. So they will be making as many as they can, and will introduce them into other markets when it is financially viable.

And yeah, you can bet the ASP's for the professional business are like on the order of 10x the consumer business.
 
"Small Supercomputer in-a-box" volumes are not the same as "Consumer" volumes :D

The price will remain astronomical until (1) those Supercomputer needs are satisfied and (2) the yields go up to the point where they can enable the whole chip.

And while the split in REVENUE is 3 to 1 in favor of consumer business, you can bet the PROFITS are not. Those profits are the reason Nvidia can AFFORD to build a monster like this.

That said, while the announcement of GP100 before GP104 is unexpected, it's not unheard of. It just depends on how far behind they get with the big chip. I'm sure GP104 was made in-parallel.

It is also being supplied directly by NVIDIA to large HPC clients now.
One of the European supercomputer centers has committed to upgrading their Kepler cards to the GP100 now, over 4000 cards just for that one project....
That announcement was held back by the research center until after the NVIDIA Tesla GP100 announcement-conference.

Now how many supercomputers/cloud/research massive compute computers out there use NVIDIA cards?
A lot.
And you can bet many are looking to replace the ageing Keplers with a Tesla GP100.

2017 is when it will be opened to the sales channel-OEM and broadened to a wider server range client base.
That said his point is still very valid, it is surprising they have ANY GP100s for sale before end of year, and has caught many critical analysts by surprise such as the one he mentioned.
No news or analysts were even close to suggest this card existed,runs, and in production before this week.
In fact quite a few were saying NVIDIA was in trouble for not showing a Pascal GPU on the Drive PX2 back at GDC and that they had nothing on the 16nm technology and GF/AMD would beat TSMC/Nvidia to the punch and put massive pressure on them.

Edit:
Regarding lead time that you mention as being after a smaller Pascal GPU.
Anandtech also said in the article linked by the other poster regarding the DGX-1:
The first systems will be shipping in May to various research universities; what NVIDIA calls their pioneers. After that, DGX-1 boxes will begin shipping to their close partners and customers in the rest of Q2. Notably (and a bit surprisingly), Q2 not only includes NVIDIA’s close partners, but general pre-order customers as well.
Cheers
 
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not so sure, i dont expect gp104 to outperform a 980ti at 1500

Yeah... People do this EVERY generation. They believe the next generation will simply WIPE THE FLOOR with the last.

Remember when Maxwell was going to be the second coming of Jesus H Bhuda? Everyone saying it will be double the performance and come with free BJs.

Yeah, then the 980 came out and it was, like, 5% faster than the 780 Ti? Then the TitanX and 980Ti came out and were like %30 faster?

Yeah, I don't wear the rose-tinted glasses that a lot of these kids tend to equip themselves with. Pascal will be AT MOST 30% faster. Not enough to beat-off over. certainly not enough to wear a huge loss on selling your equipment in a rush.
 
The only thing that shocked me was there was still no working demo of the card on a screen running. That to me tells me it will be awhile before we see the big die.

What I am curious about is what are they going to do in the meantime? Don't get me wrong im fucking impressed with GP100, fuck yea its a beast...but we didn't get anything about GP104 or GP106.
 
Yeah, I think EVERYONE (not in the know, of course) was pretty damn surprised (Heck I bet even Charlie was caught off guard this time) that they are coming out of the gate with a 600mm^2 chip.

From a gaming-consumer perspective,
the only possible thorn relating to this GPU is that its focus in development was to be an all out performing HPC product with a massive commitment to FP64 and a moderately large one to FP32.
Will be interesting to see how easy the architecture is to tweak for different demands such as consumer gamers.
Definitely relevant to a consumer GP100 card (if they use this Tesla orientated die), and possibly how they reduced the architecture for lower consumer GPU models.
Cheers
 
And Pascal was supposed to have HBM2 across the range. Chances are it will now only have HBM2 in the Titan class if at all.
Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll land among the stars.
Unless AMD launches first, with better performance / HBM2, in which case Nvidia will crash and burn, idk.

Frankly HBM isn't doing Fury X any favors so if it means a more expedient release, or lower price, I'll take GDDR5 or "GDDR5X" (whatever they call it).
 
Shoot for the moon, even if you miss you'll land among the stars.
Unless AMD launches first, with better performance / HBM2, in which case Nvidia will crash and burn, idk.

Frankly HBM isn't doing Fury X any favors so if it means a more expedient release, or lower price, I'll take GDDR5 or "GDDR5X" (whatever they call it).

I wouldn't say any of that is true.

Nvidia could have the slowest, most overpriced linuep in history and they would still need to build a new pool for all of their extra swimming cash. They could not afford to do that for a few generations, but they have the OEM market by the balls and their upward momentum would carry them into obscene profitability even with a generation of turds.

And the fact that a FuryX can actually BEAT a 980Ti in 4K gaming, but not 1080 or 1440 gaming shows that the 980Ti runs into a memory bandwidth bottleneck much faster than the Fury X. HBM is performing some sort of Voodoo there.
 
And the fact that a FuryX can actually BEAT a 980Ti in 4K gaming, but not 1080 or 1440 gaming shows that the 980Ti runs into a memory bandwidth bottleneck much faster than the Fury X. HBM is performing some sort of Voodoo there.
AMD makes gains across the board at higher resolutions, even if you compare to Nvidia GPUs with similar memory bandwidth.

Just some quick math: Gigabyte GTX 980 Ti XtremeGaming 6GB Review
980 vs 380X
72% faster @ 1080p, 8% faster @ 4K.

Bandwidth is ~220 GB/s vs ~180 GB/s.
(I passed on the 970 to compare 4GB vs 4GB)

It also seems GCN 1.2 does particularly well at higher resolutions, the 380X even passed the 290 in their benchmark.

So I would attribute those gains to something else. Somebody who is more familiar with GCN can probably tell you exactly what's causing it.
 
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AMD makes gains across the board at higher resolutions, even if you compare to Nvidia GPUs with similar memory bandwidth.

Just some quick math: Gigabyte GTX 980 Ti XtremeGaming 6GB Review
980 vs 380X
72% faster @ 1080p, 8% faster @ 4K.

Bandwidth is ~220 GB/s vs ~180 GB/s.
(I passed on the 970 to compare 4GB vs 4GB)

It also seems GCN 1.2 does particularly well at higher resolutions, the 380X even passed the 290 in their benchmark.

So I would attribute those gains to something else. Somebody who is more familiar with GCN can probably tell you exactly what's causing it.

Fair point. I think Raw Bandwidth is really the hero of high-resolutions, which is why HBM is so important to the 4K age. If you can get the same bandwidth out of GDDR, then there should be no HBM advantage.
 
AMD makes gains across the board at higher resolutions, even if you compare to Nvidia GPUs with similar memory bandwidth.

Just some quick math: Gigabyte GTX 980 Ti XtremeGaming 6GB Review
980 vs 380X
72% faster @ 1080p, 8% faster @ 4K.

Bandwidth is ~220 GB/s vs ~180 GB/s.
(I passed on the 970 to compare 4GB vs 4GB)

It also seems GCN 1.2 does particularly well at higher resolutions, the 380X even passed the 290 in their benchmark.

So I would attribute those gains to something else. Somebody who is more familiar with GCN can probably tell you exactly what's causing it.

Your one cherry-picked number is not consistent with the rest of the AMD cards.

At 1080p the R9 380X is beaten by the R9 390 8GB card by 45%!

At 1440p the R9 380X is beaten by the R9 390 8GB card by 40%!

At 4k, the little fucker jumps all the way up to within spitting distance of the R9 390 8GB.

How did it magically jump up 35% in performance when neither card is VRAM-limited or bandwidth-limited? The answer is it's AN ERROR.

Next time check your outrageous numbers before you use them to make an outrageous claim :D
 
Going back a generation...
780 Ti (336 GB/s) vs 280X (288 GB/s) both 384-bit no compression.

1080p, 43% faster.
4K, 27% faster.
 
I don't know about fair, I just pulled the closest two GPUs in memory bandwidth from the current series (GCN 1.2 vs Maxwell).
 
I don't know about fair, I just pulled the closest two GPUs in memory bandwidth from the current series (GCN 1.2 vs Maxwell).

Consistency. If you can't show it, the number is bullshit.

But we knew about Kepler being bandwidth-starved. They packed > GTX 580 performance into a 256-bit bus. Even with the memory clock increase, it was starved compared to GCN :D

The performance doesn't falloff for the 280X because it doesn't have any. That's why when the memory bandwidth becomes the limiting factor, performance falls faster!
 
I wouldn't s

ay any of that is true.

Nvidia could have the slowest, most overpriced linuep in history and they would still need to build a new pool for all of their extra swimming cash. They could not afford to do that for a few generations, but they have the OEM market by the balls and their upward momentum would carry them into obscene profitability even with a generation of turds.

And the fact that a FuryX can actually BEAT a 980Ti in 4K gaming, but not 1080 or 1440 gaming shows that the 980Ti runs into a memory bandwidth bottleneck much faster than the Fury X. HBM is performing some sort of Voodoo there.

I think right now 4GB HBM will shine with high Hz. Once we get HBM above 4GB the bandwidth will mean a lot more.

Once upon a time I tried calculating (poorly) and if you actually filled the 12GB on the Titan X you'd be bandwidth constrained to around 30ish FPS.

Pretty sure the 290X caused a pretty big price-drop of the 780, so yeah.

Well.. that's true.
 
I am confused. They have the same bus width and the 780 Ti actually has a bit more bandwidth and yet the 280X gains about 15% more relative performance from 1080p up to 4K. They're also both 3GB cards.

Logic would dictate it is not memory bandwidth related.

Similarly, the 980 actually has less total bandwidth than the 780 Ti by a significant amount.
 
I am confused. They have the same bus width and the 780 Ti actually has a bit more bandwidth and yet the 280X gains about 15% more relative performance from 1080p up to 4K. They're also both 3GB cards.

Logic would dictate it is not memory bandwidth related.

Similarly, the 980 actually has less total bandwidth than the 780 Ti by a significant amount.

It's simple, it's because you fail at math :D

At 1080p, the limiting factor is usually texture or shader throughput.

At 4k, the memory bandwidth is getting hit 4x as hard (because each pixel you draw consumes more bandwidth), making you more bandwidth-limited.

Kepler GTX 780 Ti has more shader and texture throughput than the 280X. But that have about the same memory bandwidth. 1080p = the 780 Ti shows it's shader and texture superiority (shader programs are small, and textures are easier to cache), since the ROP writes are 1/4 the rate they are at 4k.

If you are surprised that the relative performance of the 780 Ti drops off at 4k compared to 1080p, then there's nothing I can do for you.

EDIT: Kepler has 1st-generation pixel compression. It was introduced with Fermi. See here where there's a small improvement with the solid texture on the GTX 780 Ti:

AMD's Radeon R9 Fury X graphics card reviewed

I didn't mention it in my reply because it's a pretty small improvement compared to the improved version in Maxwell.
 
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It's simple, it's because you fail at math :D

At 1080p, the limiting factor is usually texture or shader throughput.

At 4k, the memory bandwidth is getting hit 4x as hard (because each pixel you draw consumes more bandwidth), making you more bandwidth-limited.

Kepler GTX 780 Ti has more shader and texture throughput than the 280X. But that have about the same memory bandwidth. 1080p = the 780 Ti shows it's shader and texture superiority (shader programs are small, and textures are easier to cache), since the ROP writes are 1/4 the rate they are at 4k.

If you are surprised that the relative performance of the 780 Ti drops off at 4k compared to 1080p, then there's nothing I can do for you.
I think we're getting off-topic, the original claim was that the Fury X excels at 4K due to HBM:

"And the fact that a FuryX can actually BEAT a 980Ti in 4K gaming, but not 1080 or 1440 gaming shows that the 980Ti runs into a memory bandwidth bottleneck much faster than the Fury X. HBM is performing some sort of Voodoo there."

Both this post and the numbers I posted previously disagree with that claim.
The point here is to show that AMD's increased performance at higher resolutions is not exclusively due to memory bandwidth.

1080p = the 780 Ti shows it's shader and texture superiority (shader programs are small, and textures are easier to cache), since the ROP writes are 1/4 the rate they are at 4k.
And yet again this DOES NOT explain the performance margins shrinking at 4K. You can't say "it's bandwidth-limited" when both cards have 'the same' bandwidth.
 
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It's simple, it's because you fail at math :D

At 1080p, the limiting factor is usually texture or shader throughput.

At 4k, the memory bandwidth is getting hit 4x as hard (because each pixel you draw consumes more bandwidth), making you more bandwidth-limited.

Kepler GTX 780 Ti has more shader and texture throughput than the 280X. But that have about the same memory bandwidth. 1080p = the 780 Ti shows it's shader and texture superiority (shader programs are small, and textures are easier to cache), since the ROP writes are 1/4 the rate they are at 4k.

If you are surprised that the relative performance of the 780 Ti drops off at 4k compared to 1080p, then there's nothing I can do for you.

EDIT: Kepler has 1st-generation pixel compression. It was introduced with Fermi. See here where there's a small imkprovement with the solid texture on the GTX 780 Ti:

AMD's Radeon R9 Fury X graphics card reviewed
Any idea where I can download that benchmark? Been looking for it for ages.
 
Do Kepler and GCN 1.0 support that? And if so would it make up that kind of performance margin?


They do but maxwell 2 has better and yeah it can add up when ya get to 4k, thats a lot of pixels. Ah already answered didn't see that.
 
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