lostinseganet
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Too expensive needs to be $23,000 before I will buy. I also worry about the battery.
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Tesla Unveils $35,000-Model 3 With 215 Mile Range
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Skripka
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Yea thing is...20% of the USA power capacity is about to disappear. All that capacity is in nuclear reactor cores that are at or beyond their rated design lifetime.
And there is precisely zero movement to make up that pending loss in capacity. Hell, I could cover my roof with solar panels, and I wouldn't generate enough power to keep my computer/monitor and the lights on in the room on during the day. Considering much of the USA is all but uninhabitable during the summer months without high electrical usage to run air conditioning...we're going to have problems with these wiz-bang electric cars, if they ever catch on.
Yes, I'm aware of this. An electric car used in California has a smaller carbon footprint than an electric car used in Ohio. I'm suggesting that we diversify the research into all promising technologies as to not put all of our eggs into one basket. Why assume that hydrogen fuel would have to be transported by a car?
Anyways, the studies I know of that looked into this topic are below if anyone is curious. Good weekend reading:
EPRI | New EPRI-NRDC Report Finds Widespread Adoption of Electric Transportation Could Curb Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Improve Air Quality
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default...ctric-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf
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Skripka
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Problem is "widespread".
Even the most ubiquitous of greener-vehicles, the Toyota Prius, that has been around for 20 years now....has a market penetration of barely 2% nationwide among car owners.
Most of these greener and green vehicles are too expensive for most consumers outright. And further are greatly uneconomical compared to old ICE tech with break-even points on costs of a decade or more (i.e. beyond the life of the vehicle in all likelihood).
I think my entire home including 2 PCs and a 8 U server running is under 3kw, and that's less than 10 panels for me, though it would be much higher if we didn't have good insulation, IR blocking window films and the solar panels themselves which reduced the roof temperature significantly since they block all that heat and provides an air gap, and had to rely on A/C, most of the insulation work paid itself off in no time. I've been tempted to paint the dark roof white to further reduce the heat generation, but i'll wait until the current roof needs replacement and go with light colored shingles since the paint apparently doesn't stick well to our kind of roof.
That's great for you. It's been a few weeks since I drove 400 miles (800 round trip) and I'll do that 2x this week and again a week or 2 after that. That's far more than normal, but doing that every 6 weeks is not. As for 15 minutes to get gas, I'm not sure where you live, but it'd take me maybe 5 minutes. The nearest supercharger is 60 miles away (an hour from me) and not in a direction I'd drive to go most of the time (and there's zero charging stations along my 400 mile route). You live on one of the coasts, so charging stations are everywhere. I live in TX and Tesla's are not practical...and trust me, I'd love it if it'd work, but it doesn't. What's more, the III is priced where apartment dwellers might want it, but few (if any) apartments have a way for occupants to charge their car.
Say what you want, but it's not going to take over until it can cover more ground. God help you if you needed to get from L.A. to San Antonio. You'll need a tow for several hundred miles.
A lot of that has to do with the penetration being 2%. Most people will always choose the least expensive (from a personal perspective) option to achieve a goal while the social and hidden costs are often unknown or not clearly explained. Companies like Toyota are businesses, so they can only invest as heavily as they can sell their hybrids and roll back the profits into R&D. The only reason small Diesel is such a developed technology in Europe is because energy taxation has forced these hidden costs back onto the consumer creating a demand to investigate alternative options, so car companies chose the least expensive route (from their perspective) and researched small turbo diesels, rather than the more expensive R&D for more exotic options. Just because we can ignore these hidden costs doesn't mean we should, but that's the government's job. A prius is expensive because it needs to be due to the volume in the same way electric cars are expensive due to the volume. That doesn't make the cheapest solution the correct one in the long term. Of course, if a person doesn't have the resources to invest into these potential paths, that's understandable, but if you can afford to pay a bit more, or deal with some inconvenience to enable a better future, it's a nice thing to do.
Skripka
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Depends on where you live...and the time of year...even before factoring in weather. Also depends on the kind of panels you are using. As you live farther north, the solar radiation amounts plummets.
I'm skeptical of your math....but let's say you live in Tulsa, OK (somewhere not too far north or south). Now your computer array needs 3kW you say. so there are 24 hours per day and 30 days a month....so your computers need 2160 kWhrs per month (3*24*30). SO you assume a 15% panel efficiency, and use 200W panels...that requires 71 panels. Now just looking on EBayyou can get 250W panels with 18% efficiency for $7,000USD for 40 panels.
The Hands-Free Solar Panel Estimator Based On Your IP address
No sure you can spend (a lot) more money for much more efficient panels....but a solar array is already financially not going to ROI even with low-end panels to home owners in a reasonable time frame. And remember I picked 36N Latitude, a fairly small distance from the equator.
Wierdo
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Hmm, price is a bit higher than I usually go for - by about 10k - but I went ahead and reserved one. I'm in the market for a new car in a couple years so figured why not.
Plus no dealership hassle, major plus for me - usually I buy used just so I can avoid dealing with them.
Will probably go for dual motors for winter traction, and I figure not needing an oil change etc should be a really nice convenience, less time and money burned.
The performance even at base should be fun as well, my only concern is if I can stay close to 35k final price after rebates. We'll see...
Plus no dealership hassle, major plus for me - usually I buy used just so I can avoid dealing with them.
Will probably go for dual motors for winter traction, and I figure not needing an oil change etc should be a really nice convenience, less time and money burned.
The performance even at base should be fun as well, my only concern is if I can stay close to 35k final price after rebates. We'll see...
Sorry that's not exactly what i meant. I mean i operate my entire home off a 10 panel 3kwh array during the day, meaning I don't go negative until the evening but it generates more than enough power to run my entire house during the day, it would be horrible if I needed 3kw for a laptop, lighting, and fridge, or tv/lighting and fridge. I pay $20/month to cover night-time power consumption ($250 true-up bill last year). This is in the San Francisco Bay Area so moderately warm. Roughly a 10 year RoI on the Solar install which is fine, I'll probably add another 10 panels in couple years as the prices continue to drop since we have tiered power rates in California. I've invested more heavily on reducing my overall power consumption prior to solar since it makes a more significant difference overall, especially night-time power consumption. I'll probably add another 10 panels in a couple years depending on how much further they drop, though it's likely to be a 15 year RoI since i'm on a low tier. I plan to be alive in 15 years so I'm ok with that, and with reduced power generation, power is only going to get more expensive.
Xrave
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People need to realize that the 215 mile Model 3 is probably not a $35k car.
The $35k is the starting price before all options.
Keep in mind the pricing on the Model S lineup (non signature) ranges from $71,000 for the entry level 60 kWh car to $81,000 for the standard 85 kWh version and another $10,000 for the P85 (85 kWh Performance Edition).
You're probably looking at least at another $10k to get to the 215 miles. Then add the other costs like the $2k supercharger.
There is a reason why Tesla provided so little details about the car today. Pull in a lot of preorders (me included), get $200M in cash, use that to fund development, mainly based on the huge interest Tesla will make on that cash (and assume 50% of the people keep the preorders), then after it has paid to finish your development release the rest of the details and lose the other half of the preorders from people who realizes this is a $35k very basic base model cost with minimal range.
The $35k is the starting price before all options.
Keep in mind the pricing on the Model S lineup (non signature) ranges from $71,000 for the entry level 60 kWh car to $81,000 for the standard 85 kWh version and another $10,000 for the P85 (85 kWh Performance Edition).
You're probably looking at least at another $10k to get to the 215 miles. Then add the other costs like the $2k supercharger.
There is a reason why Tesla provided so little details about the car today. Pull in a lot of preorders (me included), get $200M in cash, use that to fund development, mainly based on the huge interest Tesla will make on that cash (and assume 50% of the people keep the preorders), then after it has paid to finish your development release the rest of the details and lose the other half of the preorders from people who realizes this is a $35k very basic base model cost with minimal range.
Xrave
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Xrave
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They have a trunk in the front and back (no engine in front)
It was pretty clear at the reveal, 215miles was the expected range of the base model, RWD, 6 seconds 0-60. Additional range and performance is an add-on, probably requiring the second AWD motor so it starts getting expensive like on the Model S (70kwh base, I think it was an extra 15k to get the 90kwh upgrade).
i just want a larger battery. I hope I can just get a pure "base" model with upgraded battery size to get near 300 miles range. single motor is fine. 0-60 in 6 seconds is plenty fast. But like the model S seems like they will make you pay for "tech package" which is almost necessity.
I was a bit disappointed at the trunk, it looked like it would be a hatch. However, the rear trunk looks at least as big as our 323i (E46) so it's adequate, and the front trunk looks good for at least a grocery bag. Maybe they'll release a proper hatchback, then I can trade in my sti for an awd model, but it'll need to be a lot quicker.
Xrave
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I skipped to the end of the reveal, so that's nice if true. However the general idea holds true that to maximize the range there will be another +$10k adder.
Zepher
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Actually, he said at least an EPA rating of 215 miles per charge, and these are the minimum numbers, but they hope to exceed them, so they may come out with 250+ range for the base model. We'll just have to wait and see.
Actually you're right, I was really surprised at how fast the 70D was, it was only 5.2, but it has very little throttle delay and you don't need to abuse your transmission to accelerate briskly. I'd probably opt for the autopilot though, that was quite an impressive feature, and perfect for those long drives.
Tsumi
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From what I have read, everything presented were simply design goals, not actual promised specs. Given what has happened in the past, Elon Musk will probably delay release until design goals are met.
Zepher
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Well, production is scheduled to start late 2017 so they have almost a year and half to work stuff out, so we'll see.
arthur_tuxedo
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I hate to pick nits, but there's no way you can drive to the nearest gas station, be guaranteed a spot at the pump without having to wait, get out and pay, fill the tank, and get back home in 5 minutes. 10 maybe, but for every person who can do it in 10 there is someone who needs 20-30, so 15 is a fair estimate.
I don't think any but the most extreme EV advocates would argue that EVs are suitable for 100% of the US market. Clearly your situation is not compatible with an EV, so your greenest vehicle option would be a diesel, hybrid, or plug-in hybrid like the Volt.
The problem is capacity, usage peaks during the day while people are at work and is a minimum at night. Car chargers could be or will be on timers to utilize electricity when rates are cheapest, that will be overnight. A more even utilization of the grid allows the equipment to pay for itself better making regulatory unnaffordable power plants to become affordable.
The underutilization at night does nothing to relieve undercapacity in the day. That underuitilziation goes to waste.
Why do you think Musk went into home batteries. He knows the grid is being choked down. Those batteries are for filling at night and using during the day. Filling with solar is for the Rainbows and Ponies crowd.
Very unlikely. I bet the EPA range ends up being 215-219. They were giving people rides in pre-production cars that are likely extremely close to production design, so they really know the number is VERY close to 215, it won't jump to 250+. Significantly more range is significantly more production costs, and significantly less profit.
Anyone wanting much more than 215 mile range will have to pay for a bigger pack.
M76
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It nees to be $4000 for me before I'll buy it. but who cares? Certainly not tesla. At the current price point it's certainly the first usable electric car not attainable only by the rich, who have no monetary incentive to care about fuel consumption anyway.
Wierdo
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At around quarter of a million reservations in 48 hours, it blew way past analysts' "entire year" sales projections. That's pretty impressive even if, say, half of them ended up cancelling.
Pre-sales of Tesla’s Model 3 topped first-year projections in less than 24 hours
Pre-sales of Tesla’s Model 3 topped first-year projections in less than 24 hours
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Within the U.S., I guess that's true, but in reality, the difference in the distance from Boston to the Equator and Tusla to the equator is only 400 miles, while the actual distance is roughly 2500-2900 miles.
But I'm just nitpicking. If you're getting solar, you need to be in a southern state that doesn't have too many cloudy days. That said, I'd think that in the North, you'd make up for some of the short winter days with the long summer days (but only if you can sell back energy to the electric companies, which they've been trying lobbying against
)I agree, but the problem is that Tesla's network of chargers pretty much skips the entire south. It's insane that there's no efficient way to drive from L.A. to the East coast (or even Houston) or that I-20 has no chargers on it until you get to Atlanta!....correction, they have one in Jackson Mississippi. Unfortunately, you can't go anywhere other than New Orleans or Baton Rouge (but probably not in a Model III)
With that said, I feel like the III is a car to putter around down. It's the Model S and X where I think this is an insane restriction. The place I'd most want my Luxury car is on long drives. I could drive around the city in a Prius, or maybe even a Leaf if we want to stick with EV. Honestly, the super charger network is the biggest issue I have with Tesla. If they had solid network of chargers throughout the country, it'd be great, but we're a long way from that. And everytime these threads come up, people say, "they're coming," but so far they're not there where I'm looking. I wish they were. For now, I think hybrids are probably the only way for me to go.
That's really not an issue. If you're worried about total cost, then EV isn't the way to go...at least not until gas prices double or triple. OTOH, the wealthy person that's concerned about the environment may get one anyway. They also might go for it because of the semi autopilot or other tech that tesla has. Hell, they might go for an S to get insane mode.
Nevertheless, I agree, this is the first practically priced EV that has decent range, but it may not be the first one to go on sale. The next few years should be interesting.
Who needs to drive coast to coast? Do you do that regularly? Ever? I've never done that and never will.
More realistically people drive North and South on the coasts, rather that East, West between them.
The network can't spring up overnight, it takes time and money, so some places of lower priority have to wait...
Skripka
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People have been waiting for fueling infrastructure for anything beyond gasoline and diesel for 40 years. It still hasn't happened. Maybe in another 40 it might happen.
Then again considering that the one eccentric billionaire pushing this isn't found to live forever... I'd not count on it
Considering that most people couldn't even buy an EV before 2010, 12000 charging stations in 6 years is pretty damn good:
Alternative Fuels Data Center: Alternative Fueling Station Locator[]=none&ev_levels[]=1&ev_levels[]=2&ev_levels[]=dc_fast&ev_connectors[]=none&ev_connectors[]=NEMA1450&ev_connectors[]=NEMA515&ev_connectors[]=NEMA520&ev_connectors[]=J1772&ev_connectors[]=CHADEMO&ev_connectors[]=J1772COMBO&ev_connectors[]=TESLA&ev_connectors[]=all&ev_networks[]=none&ev_networks[]=AeroVironment+Network&ev_networks[]=Blink+Network&ev_networks[]=ChargePoint+Network&ev_networks[]=EV+Connect&ev_networks[]=eVgo+Network&ev_networks[]=GE+WattStation&ev_networks[]=Greenlots&ev_networks[]=OpConnect&ev_networks[]=SemaCharge+Network&ev_networks[]=Tesla&ev_networks[]=all
It's kind of a chicken and egg problem. To get mass sales of alternative fuel cars, you need infrastructure. To get infrastructure, you need demand from having cars requiring ir.
In California, there are some areas which have a minimally decent or better alternative fuel infrastructure. For example, where I live there several different alt-fuel stations within a 12 mile radius, with a few within 2 miles: Tesla Supercharger, LNG, Biodiesel, hydrogen, etc. The vehicles sold or leased using some of those fuels require that it is only licensed for use within the state, which kind of makes the problem slightly worse.
Don't forget the $7500 tax credit for buying a qualifying alternative fuel vehicle. The credit amount is based on the kwh rating, so even the Model 3 gets the full amount.
Skripka
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Considering that tech like EVs and fuel cells have been around since the 60s... And never went anywhere... It is pretty dang pathetic.
Granted they were primitive back then... But why did no one develop them then? Chicken and egg
An advantage for EVs is that for a lot of people they don't need infrastructure beyond a charger in their garage, so you can start growing the fleet, without extra public infrastructure (PHEVs/EREVs contribute as well). Then you have a enough a fleet to start justifying a public infrastructure, and you snowball from there.
farscapesg1
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Looks like I need to start saving for 2018 (not going to pre-order, would rather wait to see what actually gets produced).. and I live in TX. This would be for a daily commute car (46 mile commute each way). While I would love more miles per charge, as a family of 4 we have more than one car anyways and use the van for any long distance trips. There is no way I could do a road trip with two kids in a Honda Accord/Civic sized car With 215 miles and two supercharger stations on I-45 I can drive from Houston to Dallas without too much inconvience. Heck, I could even make it to my Tulsa, OK to visit family without worrying much about it. Just requires more planning on my part to eat, use the restroom, etc. at those stops. Personally, I would like them to partner with the state and road systems to put them at rest stops, which would be the ideal stops for me.
Of course, that is if I'm making a trip by myself, otherwise I would always fall back on a minivan or SUV for comfort when traveling with the family.
With 215 miles and two supercharger stations on I-45 I can drive from Houston to Dallas without too much inconvience. Heck, I could even make it to my Tulsa, OK to visit family without worrying much about it. Just requires more planning on my part to eat, use the restroom, etc. at those stops. Personally, I would like them to partner with the state and road systems to put them at rest stops, which would be the ideal stops for me.Of course, that is if I'm making a trip by myself, otherwise I would always fall back on a minivan or SUV for comfort when traveling with the family.
Krenum
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Fair enough.
Looks like I need to start saving for 2018 (not going to pre-order, would rather wait to see what actually gets produced).. and I live in TX. This would be for a daily commute car (46 mile commute each way). While I would love more miles per charge, as a family of 4 we have more than one car anyways and use the van for any long distance trips. There is no way I could do a road trip with two kids in a Honda Accord/Civic sized car
Of course, that is if I'm making a trip by myself, otherwise I would always fall back on a minivan or SUV for comfort when traveling with the family.
Keep in mind that Tesla is planning to double the number of Superchargers by the end of 2017, in time for the Model 3 production. I kinda wish they had more superchargers at road stops though. Some of them are not really in convenient easy to access spots.