Microsoft: Windows 10 Will Be On 1B Devices

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Windows 10 on one billion devices in two to three years? That would be pretty damn impressive if Microsoft is able to pull that off.

The 1 billion figure encompasses all kinds of devices that will be able to run the OS in some flavor, including desktops, PCs, laptops, tablets, Windows Phones, Xbox One gaming consoles, Surface Hub conferencing systems, HoloLens augmented reality glasses and various Internet of Things (IoT) devices.
 
Well, between the free upgrades from 7/8 and the inevitable Surface tablets + other third-party devices, I can see it. Ambitious, but I don't feel that it's outside the realm of possibility.
 
That's overly optimistic, IMO.

On the pessimistic side, if Windows 10 has the same adoption rate as Windows 8.x, that about 230 million devices including desktops, laptops and tablets. Even with some concessions to desktop users, it's still likely to face the same resistance as Windows 8.x did in corporate environments. Double Windows 8.x's adoption rate if you want to be very optimistic, so say 450 million Windows 10 installs on desktops, laptops and tablets.

There doesn't seem to be any rush to get Windows Phone on more devices, so Windows Mobile isn't likely to be a huge success either. Under 10 million Windows Phone devices sell per quarter in a very good quarter, so optimistically say that MS adds 50 million each year over the next 3 years, bringing the total to 150 million Windows Mobile devices.

The Xbone lifetime sales will be under 100 million, so let's say 100 million very optimistically.

That's 700 million in a very, very optimistic view. Surface Hub and augmented reality gimmicks will be a write-off, so those are pointless to even predict one million in sales.

IoT is hard to predict. There's little reason to suggest any huge quantity device maker (embedded controllers running Linux or some RTOS, for example) will need Windows, even without considering the relatively high price of meeting the specs required to run Windows. But if MS somehow bests Raspberry PI's sales by an order of magnitude with these Windows IoT, that's still under 25 million devices.

Realistically, I'd say that MS would be successful if it manages to get Windows 10 on 500 million devices after 3 years, and that's realistically optimistic.
 
I read the live blog at Arstechnica, too. Have they clearly stated that "free upgrade for one year" is forever, and not going to some other weird payment model after a year? I know there was a huge debate about this, because the language they've been using is pretty ambiguous...
 
with comments like this it makes me feel pessimistic about windows 10. Make an OS for a PC and a PC only. Windows 7 for life.
 
I know there was a huge debate about this, because the language they've been using is pretty ambiguous...

Free updates for one year for Windows 7 SP1 and Windows 8.1 users. No charge ever. That part's been clear from the beginning. What's not clear are secondary issues like transferability.

It's ambitious put not impossible. I would suspect a 90% upgrade rate for 8.1 consumer users on the spot. Windows 7 users are a bit trickier but I would suspect at least 1/3 of 7 consumers in the first year. Add in phones and new device sales 500 million users in year one is very doable. It'll be after the free upgrade expires and what the cost of the OS and upgrades will be after that will be the big factors. And this is assuming that Windows 10 is popular. Probably not as popular as 7 but more popular than 8, which is a low bar.
 
Free updates for one year for Windows 7 SP1 and Windows 8.1 users. No charge ever. That part's been clear from the beginning. What's not clear are secondary issues like transferability.

Also - upgrades only, or can I do a clean install for free (Windows 10 installs are fairly clean as well, but sometimes I like to format my drive and start from scratch).
 
Also - upgrades only, or can I do a clean install for free (Windows 10 installs are fairly clean as well, but sometimes I like to format my drive and start from scratch).

Fair question, I would suspect that 7 and 8.1 keys will allow it. But still very much a secondary issue for the typical consumer that will do in place upgrades regardless.
 
lol Xbox running "Windows 10" sure

Like the IoT and Raspberry Pi 2 - Windows 10 isn't the whole entire OS. It's the kernel and a few other things. It will run Windows 10 kernel fine.
 
lol Xbox running "Windows 10" sure

It's comments such as these that give me confidence that Windows 10 will be a hugh success over all devices formats. :) Those who do not know what they are talking about or are clueless are predictable. :D
 
Like the IoT and Raspberry Pi 2 - Windows 10 isn't the whole entire OS. It's the kernel and a few other things. It will run Windows 10 kernel fine.

Xbox One may run an updated proprietary kernel that they're going to refer to as "Windows 10" for marketing reasons, but no way in hell do they let the garbage pile of apps from the Windows App Store anywhere near their pristine ecosystem.
 
Xbox One may run an updated proprietary kernel that they're going to refer to as "Windows 10" for marketing reasons, but no way in hell do they let the garbage pile of apps from the Windows App Store anywhere near their pristine ecosystem.

Well, garbage apps like Word or OneNote wouldn't make a lot of sense on the XBox. However causal gaming is an area where crossover makes a lot of sense, even higher end titles. Games that can run across the XBox, desktops, laptops, tablets and phones is an option that makes sense in some cases.
 
Only way they will hit 1 billion is if they add a classic mode feature which makes the whole UI look like windows xp. The menu is still too much like 8 with all the tiles and all that. They need it to look like the original windows more. They need to stop resisting what the public wants. Losing sales for nothing. Give people what they want. :cool:
 
Only way they will hit 1 billion is if they add a classic mode feature which makes the whole UI look like windows xp. The menu is still too much like 8 with all the tiles and all that. They need it to look like the original windows more. They need to stop resisting what the public wants. Losing sales for nothing. Give people what they want. :cool:

Whatever the mistakes that Microsoft made in Windows 8.x, I think some are overplaying the importance old Start Menu. The biggest issue with 8.x was familiarity for keyboard and mouse users and the biggest obstacle to that familiarity were hidden and full screen UI elements. These are now completely gone on the desktop side and almost all gone on the touch side sans the side swipes.

In the latest build, 10074, while the new Start Menu looks quite a bit different functionally and navigationally it's not far from Windows 7. The biggest difference is that nothing can be pinned on the left in 10. I know people will complain about the tiles but I confusion coming from previews versions of Windows is resolved.
 
Only way they will hit 1 billion is if they add a classic mode feature which makes the whole UI look like windows xp. The menu is still too much like 8 with all the tiles and all that. They need it to look like the original windows more. They need to stop resisting what the public wants. Losing sales for nothing. Give people what they want. :cool:
Dude, how old are you? Even my parents who just hit 70 prefer tiled menu now after throwing fits at me when they couldn't find all the menu options after I switched them to Office 2013. And to the infinity times, Start8 or ClassicShell get rid of Metro Interface once and for all.
 
didnt they say that they would sell 3 billion xbox ones?

yeah, not happening.
 
Dude, how old are you? Even my parents who just hit 70 prefer tiled menu now after throwing fits at me when they couldn't find all the menu options after I switched them to Office 2013. And to the infinity times, Start8 or ClassicShell get rid of Metro Interface once and for all.

I work for a shop and i know what people want mostly. Everyone wants 7 over 8. No one wants the tiles at all. A lot of business computers that have 8 we installed classicshell on them. If it wasn't for the forced upgrade of windows xp then most people would be on that still. The start menu has to be like xp/7 to be succesful. I have windows 10 on this computer i am using right now. The start menu is not good enough. Already installed classicshell on it. Just fine now but it shouldnt have to be that way. Windows 7 and back always had a classic mode of some sort. It should be standard with 8/10. Forcing people to change is not how it works in business. The customer is always right. Their philosophy is messed up.
 
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