NASA: 2012 Solar Flares Could Devastate Cities!

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
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May 9, 2000
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Did I just hear Chicken Little scream “The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling?” If not, NASA is doing a very good impression with its prediction of doom and gloom. NASA is saying that the solar flares predicted for next year will be on a Space Katrina level rather than a planetary level destruction. It’s a good news/bad news situation.

So the planet may survive, but you may not, seems to be the message. However it may be reasonable to take some of the solar-flare doomsaying of recent years with a pinch of salt.
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NASA's been reading too much Arthur C. Clarke's Time Odyssey.
 
This has been predicted by both NASA and independent astronomers for years.

Tin foil hat my ass. Better have a few generators and some underground EMP resistant sheltering or everything you own, including all the satellites in space and every electrical grid on the planet, will be completely fried. No power. No communications. For at least 5-10 years.

Dark ages.

Do I believe it? Of course...why wouldn't I? Why do you think the government is building underground bunkers left and right, buying up all supplies they can get. There are contractors that have to wait YEARS to get air cleaners and what not because the government has exhausted the supply! Why do you think the US and every other country is going to shit financially/economically? Because they know its going to happen and they don't care...they just got to save their asses and ride this shit out til it comes.

Might all sound nutty but it is coming. But we all know how people handle bad news...they just ignore it, cause then it becomes untrue doesn't it?
 
JoeUser said:
This has been predicted by both NASA and independent astronomers for years.

Tin foil hat my ass. Better have a few generators and some underground EMP resistant sheltering or everything you own, including all the satellites in space and every electrical grid on the planet, will be completely fried. No power. No communications. For at least 5-10 years.

Dark ages.

Do I believe it? Of course...why wouldn't I? Why do you think the government is building underground bunkers left and right, buying up all supplies they can get. There are contractors that have to wait YEARS to get air cleaners and what not because the government has exhausted the supply! Why do you think the US and every other country is going to shit financially/economically? Because they know its going to happen and they don't care...they just got to save their asses and ride this shit out til it comes.

Might all sound nutty but it is coming. But we all know how people handle bad news...they just ignore it, cause then it becomes untrue doesn't it?
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FUCK YES, BRING IT!
 
From that same article:

As NASA notes, anyone older than 11 has already lived through at least one solar maximum of the sort coming up: and furthermore these maxima have been steadily decreasing in intensity, not increasing, over recent decades.
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End of the world my butt.
 
JoeUser said:
This has been predicted by both NASA and independent astronomers for years.

Tin foil hat my ass. Better have a few generators and some underground EMP resistant sheltering or everything you own, including all the satellites in space and every electrical grid on the planet, will be completely fried. No power. No communications. For at least 5-10 years.

Dark ages.

Do I believe it? Of course...why wouldn't I? Why do you think the government is building underground bunkers left and right, buying up all supplies they can get. There are contractors that have to wait YEARS to get air cleaners and what not because the government has exhausted the supply! Why do you think the US and every other country is going to shit financially/economically? Because they know its going to happen and they don't care...they just got to save their asses and ride this shit out til it comes.

Might all sound nutty but it is coming. But we all know how people handle bad news...they just ignore it, cause then it becomes untrue doesn't it?
Click to expand...

If the early warning satellite works as it should the utilities should be able too cycle down their plants in time to prevent blowing all of their transformers. That's the biggest thing right there. Most other things being fried would be a major problem sure, but not nearly as bad as crippling the power grid and taking 5-10 years too replace critical components.
 
EngrChris said:
If you want a real Armageddon, go look up a Gamma-ray burst.
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Eta Carinae is a likely canidate since we still have no idea when it will pop. We'll be lucky IF we get some sort of warning from supernova to any indication of trouble, other than a possible "Oh shi-...".
 
I'm sure this is NASA's way of getting funding to build another shuttle to go back to space. Let's tell the world we are going to die unless we get back to space and see what's going on, like as if they could fix the problem. So another 10 billion dollars should give us the answers we need? Who really cares? If it's something so tragic and nothing we can fix then everyone get drunk and laid and enjoy what's left..
 
about time to back up data in multiple copies and stored in metal boxes... maaan, women are not a problem but i can't live without prOn.
 
Might devastate cities because the solar flares might knock out key communication satellites (either completely or, have them purposefully shut down to protect them), and if that happens, imagine a world with no mobile devices... people would have to look where they walk, look at other people, perhaps even talk to someone not on the other side of the phone, might have to pay attention while driving!!!! it'll be like biblical events that precede Armageddon!!!
 
Is it just me, or is it sad that Pixar's version of the future with Wall-e seems to be where we're heading? 2012 is a crock, but the end of civilization will happen by OUR OWN hands. Not a solar flare, not a giant asteroid, not the earth going through some instant magnetic change, we will over-populate this planet more than it already is, and we will exhaust all of the resources. It might take hundreds of years, but it is going to happen.
 
Man made Solar Flares. The EPA better hurry and outlaw everything before its too late.

AKA: Before everybody finds out that they are full of shit!!!
 
If you're of the tin-foil hat persuasion, the good news is you already have a good start on a faraday cage.
 
Kueller said:
If you're of the tin-foil hat persuasion, the good news is you already have a good start on a faraday cage.
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Thinly veiled "I'm wrapping my house in chicken wire".

But we'll be fine, the carbon tax will save us. Our government has never out and out lied to us before.
 
Wouldn't DVDs be a viable backup medium unaffected by this? Might not be practical for pr0n and movies but for everything else...
 
scojer said:
Is it just me, or is it sad that Pixar's version of the future with Wall-e seems to be where we're heading? 2012 is a crock, but the end of civilization will happen by OUR OWN hands. Not a solar flare, not a giant asteroid, not the earth going through some instant magnetic change, we will over-populate this planet more than it already is, and we will exhaust all of the resources. It might take hundreds of years, but it is going to happen.
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This is why I'm heading to the [strike=1]Buy n Large[/s] Costco to stock up.
 
Rajincajun said:
I'm sure this is NASA's way of getting funding to build another shuttle to go back to space. Let's tell the world we are going to die unless we get back to space and see what's going on, like as if they could fix the problem.
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Sending people into space is exactly what will solve the problem. We can't guaranetee the survivability of 1 planet, but we can make a better guarantee that not ALL of existance will be destroyed.

It is our primal instinct to spread out. The vastness of space is no more a limitation than the vastness of the oceans were in the past.
 
westrock2000 said:
Sending people into space is exactly what will solve the problem. We can't guaranetee the survivability of 1 planet, but we can make a better guarantee that not ALL of existance will be destroyed.

It is our primal instinct to spread out.
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"...I'd like to share a revelation I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with their surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area, and you multiply, and you multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet."

I'd say agent Smith pretty much nailed it.
 
Big John said:
Man made Solar Flares. The EPA better hurry and outlaw everything before its too late.

AKA: Before everybody finds out that they are full of shit!!!
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On a side note, the 2010 budget for the EPA was $10.3B, the 2010 budget for NASA was $18.7B. On one side, we have the EPA, an organization that primarily makes regulations and fines companies, on the other we have an organization that sends people into space and creates products that we use every day. I don't know whats worse, that the EPA costs so much, or that we send rockets into space for so little. Its amazing the damn things don't fall out of they sky.
 
Supercharged_Z06 said:
"...I'd like to share a revelation I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with their surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area, and you multiply, and you multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet."

I'd say agent Smith pretty much nailed it.
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My thoughts exactly. Unless we learn to stop shitting in our one and only home, its all over... just a matter of time.
 
westrock2000 said:
Sending people into space is exactly what will solve the problem. We can't guaranetee the survivability of 1 planet, but we can make a better guarantee that not ALL of existance will be destroyed.

It is our primal instinct to spread out. The vastness of space is no more a limitation than the vastness of the oceans were in the past.
Click to expand...

The fact that we've been to the moon and back should be proof enough of this concept.
 
Hornet said:
It mentioned that aurora were seen around the world :eek: Must have been an amazing sight everywhere.

But yeah, if we had another such flare today, the aftermath would not be as pretty.
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Wonder how many people will attempt taking pictures of the next one with cell phones and digital cameras... :p It's gonna be a boon for religion, amongst other things, too bad there won't be a stock market to capitalize on!
 
Supercharged_Z06 said:
"...I'd like to share a revelation I've had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with their surrounding environment, but you humans do not. You move to an area, and you multiply, and you multiply, until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern. Do you know what it is? A virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet."

I'd say agent Smith pretty much nailed it.
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Not really. It's a nice pithy quote, but Smith is wrong. Other mammals and animals are kept in check by predators if they exist, and the apex predators (which includes us) are kept in check by food supply. If you remove those restrictions, they would multiply without end until they hit new ones, and the population would either stabilize or crash. Wheee science.

BladeVenom said:
Hopefully everyone has heard of the Carington Event. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859 What happens to modern civilization when another solar storm like that one happens?
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Civilization collapses and we all die. The end.

More serious answer: Hard to say. It depends on how much warning we get, and who listens to the warning. As Wiki mentioned, the 1859 event was strong to cause telegraph wires to spark fires from the induced currents. The modern power grid is similarly at risk, since the conductors (wires) involved are so long - they span continents, just like those telegraph wires did. This allows for enormous induced currents, which can cause extremely damaging arcing/overloading. However, the most critical components of the grid, the high-voltage transformers and generators that make the whole thing go, can be saved simply by turning them off and opening the circuits. Then it doesn't matter how big any conceivable CME is, since it can't induce enough current to bridge the gaps and destroy the transformers. Consumer devices and things like cars may have their electrical systems damaged/destroyed, but it shouldn't be overwhelmingly bad, since the currents induced cannot be all that large, simply based on the fact that the conductors involved aren't that big (provided, of course, that they're disconnected from the grid and those nice long power lines at the time...). A decent surge protector/UPS would almost certainly be enough to protect a computer, for example.

If no one listens/SOHO isn't working anymore and we get no warning, well... Let's just say that things get very bad, very quickly. With the most important parts of the grid basically down and out, just about nobody is going to be getting long-distance power. Backup generators would be enough to cover the essential services if enough fuel can be provided, but it would be years until new high-voltage transformers could be built to replace all the blown ones. I'll leave the rest as a thought exercise to the reader. Just imagine everything you use electricity for on a daily basis, and imagine it being gone for the most part. Do note that this is not "END OF CIVILIZATION" material - just a really big, unprecedented disaster that would take years to decades to recover from fully.

One thing that happens in both extremes (and everything in between) is a many hour long blackout (at least). In the worst case, the grid is off for a lot longer than that, but even in the best case, it will take time to carefully restart the grid and avoid overloading it. Note in the case of all three New York/Northeast blackouts (1965, 1977, and 2003), it was just a few components that failed, resulting in a domino effect of overloaded power lines and transformers, which then shut themselves off to prevent damage. In the 1989 Quebec blackout, which was caused by a geomagnetic storm like our hypothetical scenario here, tripped some circuit breakers on the grid due to the induced currents in the long distance transmission lines; there was no damage to the power system, but it still took 9 hours to restore power to most of Quebec. It is quite possible (and even probable) for our hypothetical superstorm to only damage portions of the grid, with others shutting down in time in response to various magnetic field fluctuations/overloads.

Even in the best case, satellites are hosed. They are outside Earth's atmosphere, and thus get the full brunt of the cosmic and gamma/X ray strikes. GPS is probably completely dead until a new constellation is put up; comm satellites are down, all the science telescopes in orbit (Hubble, Chandra, XMM, etc.) are dead, no more really accurate weather predictions, etc. Electronics just don't respond well to being showered in energetic particles, y'know?
 
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