Elon Musk: Tesla Cars Will Drive Themselves In 2 Years

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If anyone can get a self-driving car on the road in the next two years I think it would be Tesla. Whether or not state laws will allow for self-driving cars by then is another thing.

“I think we have all the pieces, and it’s just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we’re done,” Musk told Fortune with assuredness during his commute to SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif., where he is also CEO. “It’s a much easier problem than people think it is. But it’s not like George Hotz, a one-guy-and-three-months problem. You know, it’s more like, thousands of people for two years.”
 
In before the whiny babies about how they want to experience driving, blah blah blah... Goto your favorite canyon and put the damn car in manual... leave the rest of us driving the rushhour bullshit to have fully autonomous vehicles where we can eliminate stop and go traffic and dumbass drivers. Imagine a world where city drivers actually move over to the right, everytime they are supposed to, instead of blocking the high speed lane with their self appointed "IM GOING THE SPEEDLIMIT" mantra.
 
Umm, I think self driving cars are good for those that can't drive.

But driving a car is something that we all do or will do at some point in our lives. And if I am in a rush and want to drive 120MPH swerving through traffic that's my choice. Or if I feel like pissing off the person behind me by driving 25MPH in a 50MPH zone just to piss them off, that's my choice.

But yes, if the speed limit on the highway is 70MPH, that's why they made entrance ramps. You get your ass to 70MPH before actually getting on the Xpressway and if you cannot. You most likely should not be getting on it in the first place.
Same with exit ramps, you don't hit the brakes before getting off the Xpressway, you hit the brakes once you are off. If people are doing 70 and traffic is flowing good, and someone gets on or off and is going at a slower rate it just causes accidents, slowdowns and pissed off people.
 
In 2 years, huh? In that case it will take me about another 17 years to afford a used one.
 
And if I am in a rush and want to drive 120MPH swerving through traffic that's my choice. Or if I feel like pissing off the person behind me by driving 25MPH in a 50MPH zone just to piss them off, that's my choice.
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No those are not your choices to make. Those are reckless actions that no one wants on the road.
 
MNKyDeth said:
But yes, if the speed limit on the highway is 70MPH, that's why they made entrance ramps. You get your ass to 70MPH before actually getting on the Xpressway and if you cannot. You most likely should not be getting on it in the first place.
Same with exit ramps, you don't hit the brakes before getting off the Xpressway, you hit the brakes once you are off. If people are doing 70 and traffic is flowing good, and someone gets on or off and is going at a slower rate it just causes accidents, slowdowns and pissed off people.
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For on-ramps, you are correct, but as to off-ramps; some are so horribly designed, that it is far smarter to slow down on the highway, than to try slowing from 65-70 to 15-35 before the hairpin curve along the ramp, or the backed up traffic, or the red light/stop sign at the end.
 
MNKyDeth said:
Umm, I think self driving cars are good for those that can't drive.

But driving a car is something that we all do or will do at some point in our lives. And if I am in a rush and want to drive 120MPH swerving through traffic that's my choice. Or if I feel like pissing off the person behind me by driving 25MPH in a 50MPH zone just to piss them off, that's my choice.

But yes, if the speed limit on the highway is 70MPH, that's why they made entrance ramps. You get your ass to 70MPH before actually getting on the Xpressway and if you cannot. You most likely should not be getting on it in the first place.
Same with exit ramps, you don't hit the brakes before getting off the Xpressway, you hit the brakes once you are off. If people are doing 70 and traffic is flowing good, and someone gets on or off and is going at a slower rate it just causes accidents, slowdowns and pissed off people.
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Ignoring the first portion of your post, since it's quite stupid and you probably shouldn't have a license based on that, the biggest issue with the off ramps are the morons who drive right up until the last 5 feet in the very left lane only to figure out they have to get off.
 
MNKyDeth said:
Umm, I think self driving cars are good for those that can't drive.

But driving a car is something that we all do or will do at some point in our lives. And if I am in a rush and want to drive 120MPH swerving through traffic that's my choice. Or if I feel like pissing off the person behind me by driving 25MPH in a 50MPH zone just to piss them off, that's my choice.
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That sounds like the kind of driving that causes most people to say, "that person can't drive."
 
-Strelok- said:
Ignoring the first portion of your post, since it's quite stupid and you probably shouldn't have a license based on that, the biggest issue with the off ramps are the morons who drive right up until the last 5 feet in the very left lane only to figure out they have to get off.
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If MNKyDeth wasn't driving 25 MPH in the right lane, drivers would get over sooner ;)
 
I like some of the responses, but I hope you all know that my previous post was for examples of choice. Not what I actually do.

It's like, what is happening with the government and corporations. Take away our rights and privacy as people and it limits the choices we have. What does having self driving cars fix besides those that really should not actually be driving? Like old people that can't see well or younger people that just don't understand the rules of the road etc?
 
MNKyDeth said:
I like some of the responses, but I hope you all know that my previous post was for examples of choice. Not what I actually do.

It's like, what is happening with the government and corporations. Take away our rights and privacy as people and it limits the choices we have. What does having self driving cars fix besides those that really should not actually be driving? Like old people that can't see well or younger people that just don't understand the rules of the road etc?
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It automates the process and removes human error. It puts an end to aggressive driving and likely improves traffic flow. On long hauls, you could theoretically take a nap.

Regardless, it's unlikely we're going to have automated cars where you're allowed to read a book while your car drives within a couple of years. It might be possible, but states aren't going to allow that until the technology is road tested by attentive drivers for several years...and maybe not then.
 
I have talked to alot of people about this, and i seem to be the only one looking forward to it. I guess the general public dont like change until they have changed.
 
Steve said:
If anyone can get a self-driving car on the road in the next two years I think it would be Tesla. Whether or not state laws will allow for self-driving cars by then is another thing.

“I think we have all the pieces, and it’s just about refining those pieces, putting them in place, and making sure they work across a huge number of environments—and then we’re done,” Musk told Fortune with assuredness during his commute to SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif., where he is also CEO. “It’s a much easier problem than people think it is. But it’s not like George Hotz, a one-guy-and-three-months problem. You know, it’s more like, thousands of people for two years.”
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They can't get their affordable car on the market in two years, but you think this will happen?

The only way this works is with inch perfect gps mapping of the roads. I predict there will be autopilot roads where you can turn it on, and it slowly rolls out over the next 20. Elon is much better at delivering hype than usable products.
 
The only way that I can see this happening right now is cameras watching for lane markers. Would make it tricky in parts of Chicago (was just there yesterday for crap with my wife's family). Driving down several of the roads there were no dividing lines between the 2 lanes heading each way. WTF? That's not going to work very well...
 
Sherk said:
The only way that I can see this happening right now is cameras watching for lane markers. Would make it tricky in parts of Chicago (was just there yesterday for crap with my wife's family). Driving down several of the roads there were no dividing lines between the 2 lanes heading each way. WTF? That's not going to work very well...
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That's how it works now.


Except, at night, rain, snow, fog, dust storm, where the paint is old, where some idiot spilled paint on the lines..... The list goes on and on. You simply cannot have a fully autonomous car using cameras, it won't work.

China did it with very precise road gps mapping combined with a camera/radar system. Only way it works.
 
nb14 said:
I have talked to alot of people about this, and i seem to be the only one looking forward to it. I guess the general public dont like change until they have changed.
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I have no problem with a car that can drive me from point a to point b. If they get it reliable enough that no driver is required, it'd be awesome. Driving from NY to L.A.? Bring a book or a bunch of movies. Make your back seat a bed. Hell, if your car can get 40 MPG and you have 17 gallon tank, you can fill up, sleep 8 hours and pull over for gas and breakfast.

Eventually, we might have higher speed limits, simply because the reaction time of a computer is faster than a person.
 
As long as manual remains an option, I don't mind. In fact, robot cars will be far more predictable in their behavior on the road than people ever would. That would leave people that do want to drive, and actually know how to, a much safer drive.

Honestly, I think about how a self driving car would grant my mother a few more years of self reliance. She is a really independent old lady, but she is at an age where, in the next couple years or so, for her safety, and that of the general public, she will need to give up driving. With that comes a loss of independence that I would rather not put her through. A self driving car would leave her with her independence without risking the safety of herself and others. She is old, has crappy reflexes, and while she can still see well enough to drive, it's a close thing. There are a lot of peoples moms, dads grandmas, and grandpas out there.
 
MNKyDeth said:
Umm, I think self driving cars are good for those that can't drive.

But driving a car is something that we all do or will do at some point in our lives. And if I am in a rush and want to drive 120MPH swerving through traffic that's my choice. Or if I feel like pissing off the person behind me by driving 25MPH in a 50MPH zone just to piss them off, that's my choice.

But yes, if the speed limit on the highway is 70MPH, that's why they made entrance ramps. You get your ass to 70MPH before actually getting on the Xpressway and if you cannot. You most likely should not be getting on it in the first place.
Same with exit ramps, you don't hit the brakes before getting off the Xpressway, you hit the brakes once you are off. If people are doing 70 and traffic is flowing good, and someone gets on or off and is going at a slower rate it just causes accidents, slowdowns and pissed off people.
Click to expand...
You are horribly mistaken if you think robot cars will ever speed. If anything goes wrong while disobeying the rules the liability would be legion. At the same time, tThe robot car will be the one blocking the 'fast lane'. Stories are already coming our where the cars are programmed with no sense of courtesy or conventions of other drivers.
 
jpm100 said:
You are horribly mistaken if you think robot cars will ever speed. If anything goes wrong while disobeying the rules the liability would be legion. At the same time, tThe robot car will be the one blocking the 'fast lane'. Stories are already coming our where the cars are programmed with no sense of courtesy or conventions of other drivers.
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It's too soon to know if they'll never speed or not. I read an article sometime this month about developers trying to decide if they should allow the cars to speed under some circumstances.

As for the lack of courtesy, that will improve. As Musk said, it's a complex problem. Before they make it drive like a person, they want to make sure it can drive safely and avoid accidents.
 
I am really curious to see how the laws catch up to this technology - it's pretty fascinating to be in a world where the technology is advancing so quickly without leaving much time for society's laws to even really get ahead of how to deal with them.
 
zadillo said:
I am really curious to see how the laws catch up to this technology - it's pretty fascinating to be in a world where the technology is advancing so quickly without leaving much time for society's laws to even really get ahead of how to deal with them.
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Laws will never have a hope of catching up until we fundamentally change how laws are created.

Congress creating legislation in the 21st century is like trying to fly a jet liner with a mainsheet and a tiller. Wrong tools for the job.
 
zadillo said:
I am really curious to see how the laws catch up to this technology - it's pretty fascinating to be in a world where the technology is advancing so quickly without leaving much time for society's laws to even really get ahead of how to deal with them.
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Good point. People catching up with technology is also another huge hurdle. Too many people simply do not like change. :(
 
nilepez said:
It automates the process and removes human error. It puts an end to aggressive driving and likely improves traffic flow. On long hauls, you could theoretically take a nap.

Regardless, it's unlikely we're going to have automated cars where you're allowed to read a book while your car drives within a couple of years. It might be possible, but states aren't going to allow that until the technology is road tested by attentive drivers for several years...and maybe not then.
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It won't be allowed/pssible until either every car on the road is autonomous or dedicated roads are made/built where only autonomous vehicles are allowed to drive.

jpm100 said:
You are horribly mistaken if you think robot cars will ever speed. If anything goes wrong while disobeying the rules the liability would be legion. At the same time, tThe robot car will be the one blocking the 'fast lane'. Stories are already coming our where the cars are programmed with no sense of courtesy or conventions of other drivers.
Click to expand...
I think there was an editorial talking about this in an issue of C&D recently. Up to now the programmers of self-driving tech have basically all agreed that strict adherence to the driving laws would be what they did. But they also talk about how cars that were in autonomous driving mode are getting involved in a lot of rear-end collisions.
 
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