Apple Stock Dips Over Concerns About iPhone Shipments

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Apple's stock is taking a hit over the amount of iPhones the company is shipping? I would be more concerned with the fact that the iPhone seems to be the only thing Apple is shipping these days.

In a note to clients on Wednesday, Bank of America cut its estimate for fiscal 2016 iPhone shipments by 10 million to 220 million, pointing to a weakening among Apple's suppliers. In another note, Raymond James lowered its estimate for 2016 iPhone shipments to 224 million from 229 million, also pointing to lackluster expectations at Apple suppliers. And on Tuesday, Baird Equity Research trimmed its 2016 iPhone forecast to 234.7 million from 243.8 million, implying 1.5 percent growth over 2015.
 
If Apple's stock is taking a hit over impossible expectations (like, um, perfection), then something's seriously wrong with the analysts.
 
Being NUMBER 1 just ain't good enough anymore!!!

We need better than first place! Anything less than better than best is for losers!
 
Yakk said:
Being NUMBER 1 just ain't good enough anymore!!!

We need better than first place! Anything less than better than best is for losers!
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"Number one isn't very impressive, you need to be one-er. Lay off 10,000 employees and we'll talk about that evaluation." Signed: Fund Managers
 
geforce said:
If Apple's stock is taking a hit over impossible expectations (like, um, perfection), then something's seriously wrong with the analysts.
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This is typical Wall Street. The iPhone is the bulk of Apple's business so any kind of slow down there, impossible or not, is going to figure into the stock price. Not really a huge deal but the question here is what is the long term sustainable number. Eventually the smartphone market is going to stop growing and level off, like everything else.
 
There are better investments elsewhere. It's just money moving around. It'll come back to Apple someday.
 
amddragonpc said:
There are better investments elsewhere. It's just money moving around. It'll come back to Apple someday.
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Apparently they think google/alphabet is a better investment. I was checking out it's valuation the other day and it's creeping up on apple. Only $100 billion more. Sad thing is google doesn't make anywhere near the money apple does. Not to mention even with the rosiest color glasses you could find it won't get in the ballpark for at least the next decade.

Then you can keep going with even more ridiculous valuations like facebook... Wowza. I would be cashing out on that asap if I had any FB stock left.

Anyways, there is definitely a bubble in tech right now. APPL is not part of that bubble. I suspect when the bubble bursts more money will flow into apple as people will race to value instead of these ridiculously overvalued "growth" stocks.
 
geforce said:
If Apple's stock is taking a hit over impossible expectations (like, um, perfection), then something's seriously wrong with the analysts.
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Queue the next "Decline of Apple" article on WSJ or another authoritative news site :rolleyes:
 
I'm usin a iPhone 6 and its fucking amazing, first iPhone and I don't see me going back in the foreseeable future. This shit works, is snappy, and looks clean AF. as much as I praise OS X for being a good OS. It can get confusing as hell to do simple tasks. Apple isn't going anywhere
 
Dan said:
I'm usin a iPhone 6 and its fucking amazing, first iPhone and I don't see me going back in the foreseeable future. This shit works, is snappy, and looks clean AF. as much as I praise OS X for being a good OS. It can get confusing as hell to do simple tasks. Apple isn't going anywhere
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I'm curious to see if your opinion remains the same over the next few refreshes of IOS. Apple seems to be the biggest proponents of planned obsolescence as their hardware is adequate at launch, but intolerable two years down the line.
 
This has happened every quarter for the past three years.

"Yeah we asked like three random stores and they said they sold less iPhones than normal. We think Apple is only going to have 20% growth this quarter and may only have about $52 billion in revenue. Time to panic sell and buy Amazon or Tesla instead".
 
They're still up 40% from last year, I think the stock will live.
 
thejokker said:
This is just history repeating itself...

Without Steve Jobs Apple is nothing.
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Except for that whole "being the largest company in the world by market cap" thing, and the fact that their sales have exploded in the past few years despite his death. But yeah, other than that.
 
I'm not sure about Imagination, but Dialog warned last quarter and apple and other suppliers, (e.g. Skyworks) turned in great numbers.

At some point, Apple is going to slow down, but they're still a growth company. And yes, they're largely a one product company, but they have several years to get another product going before it matters. We're talking about a company with 200 billion in cash. They can buy growth.
 
britjh22 said:
I'm curious to see if your opinion remains the same over the next few refreshes of IOS. Apple seems to be the biggest proponents of planned obsolescence as their hardware is adequate at launch, but intolerable two years down the line.
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There are plenty of people with the iPhone 4S and the 5/5S who are still happy with their iPhones and many of them don't plan to upgrade until the phone actually dies. My 5S is still going strong. IOS 9.2 only leaves out the iPad 1 and iPhones before the 4S. If you have an iPad 1 it is pretty worthless since many apps no longer work on it.
 
belfert said:
There are plenty of people with the iPhone 4S and the 5/5S who are still happy with their iPhones and many of them don't plan to upgrade until the phone actually dies. My 5S is still going strong. IOS 9.2 only leaves out the iPad 1 and iPhones before the 4S. If you have an iPad 1 it is pretty worthless since many apps no longer work on it.
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I wouldn't want to run IOS9 on a 4s. People were complaining about speed on it a year or 2 ago and IOS9 is definitely got more lag than IOS8. I wouldn't have upgraded had I known. That said, 9.2 is slightly better, but it's still a work in progress.

Regardless, the charge of obsolescence is silly. Most people seem to upgrade their phones pretty regularly. Now maybe that'll change now that they pay less if the phone is paid off, but up until now, you were paying for a new phone whether you bought one or not.
 
nilepez said:
I'm not sure about Imagination, but Dialog warned last quarter and apple and other suppliers, (e.g. Skyworks) turned in great numbers.

At some point, Apple is going to slow down, but they're still a growth company. And yes, they're largely a one product company, but they have several years to get another product going before it matters. We're talking about a company with 200 billion in cash. They can buy growth.
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Right, they're basically Microsoft in year 2000 - after the onslaught of sales powered by the start menu (home) and the NT kernel (businesses) plus cheap stable Taiwanese parts (Asus, MSI, Gigabyte, Abit), Microsoft had loads of cash with nowhere to grow.

But they still to this day can rely on their core business and consumer markets to continue supplying them cash. It just makes them a more questionable investment now that they don't have a visionary like Jobs.

I'm sure they'll figure something out. But I'm expecting the same stock price slowdown like Microsoft saw for the last decade.
 
defaultluser said:
Right, they're basically Microsoft in year 2000 - after the onslaught of sales powered by the start menu (home) and the NT kernel (businesses) plus cheap stable Taiwanese parts (Asus, MSI, Gigabyte, Abit), Microsoft had loads of cash with nowhere to grow.

But they still to this day can rely on their core business and consumer markets to continue supplying them cash. It just makes them a more questionable investment now that they don't have a visionary like Jobs.

I'm sure they'll figure something out. But I'm expecting the same stock price slowdown like Microsoft saw for the last decade.
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Maybe, but last quarter's YoY EPS growth was 22%. They'll almost double in size over 3 years at that rate. Even with some slowing, they'll double in no less than 4.

If they manage to make the watch more compelling (we forget that the iPhone was not nearly as compelling for the first 2 or 3 versions), it could take off. That's pure speculation, because right now, I don't see it, but I don't see Apple slowing down that quickly. My gut says they'll have a good quarter, but growth won't be like last Q1 (Dec) where EPS grew 30%. Then again that came a year after Q1 only grew 5%.

We'll find out in January.
 
nilepez said:
I'm not sure about Imagination, but Dialog warned last quarter and apple and other suppliers, (e.g. Skyworks) turned in great numbers.

At some point, Apple is going to slow down, but they're still a growth company. And yes, they're largely a one product company, but they have several years to get another product going before it matters. We're talking about a company with 200 billion in cash. They can buy growth.
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Right... except they have had a couple years to launch a new product and all their efforts have failed. All they have left is selling the same thing over and over with minor changes. What happens when this stock market bubble bursts and a significant percentage of that 200 billion evaporates?

Apple's visionary is gone and so is the vision...
 
geforce said:
If Apple's stock is taking a hit over impossible expectations (like, um, perfection), then something's seriously wrong with the analysts.
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When a company's stock is so over valued compared to sales (even if they have the highest profit margins), there are bound to be drops when they don't deliver perfect unicorns and ice cream.
 
belfert said:
There are plenty of people with the iPhone 4S and the 5/5S who are still happy with their iPhones and many of them don't plan to upgrade until the phone actually dies. My 5S is still going strong. IOS 9.2 only leaves out the iPad 1 and iPhones before the 4S. If you have an iPad 1 it is pretty worthless since many apps no longer work on it.
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iOS 8 and 9 are painful on devices with 1GB DRAM and less so that makes everything from iPhone 6 and below obsolete. Apple squeezed an additional $5 profit from everything device by leaving out that critical 2nd GB of DRAM at the expense of their customers suffering from early obsolescence. iPhone 6 just released in 2014 is obsolete within less than a year while the competition has had 2GB DRAM in Galaxy Note II since 2012.
 
thejokker said:
Right... except they have had a couple years to launch a new product and all their efforts have failed. All they have left is selling the same thing over and over with minor changes. What happens when this stock market bubble bursts and a significant percentage of that 200 billion evaporates?

Apple's visionary is gone and so is the vision...
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Again, 20% YoY growth. I'm not sure what that has to do with being a visionary (not that I"ve ever bought into that...and neither did apple haters until recently..I know, cause I was one of them).
 
nilepez said:
Again, 20% YoY growth. I'm not sure what that has to do with being a visionary (not that I"ve ever bought into that...and neither did apple haters until recently..I know, cause I was one of them).
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Again... As the stock falls that growth will evaporate. Apples whole success revolves around the interface of both the original mac and the iPhone. In both cases they have squandered their success with minimal improvements over and over again while their competition catches up and eventually passes them...
 
thejokker said:
Again... As the stock falls that growth will evaporate. Apples whole success revolves around the interface of both the original mac and the iPhone. In both cases they have squandered their success with minimal improvements over and over again while their competition catches up and eventually passes them...
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Perhaps, but there's no evidence that that's happening, other than a couple of suppliers saying they're going to miss (and keep in mind that Apple doesn't single source things).

When Apple's growth goes down, talk to me. Also, what do you mean growth will evaporate as the stock goes down? Is that a type-o?
 
nutzo said:
When a company's stock is so over valued compared to sales (even if they have the highest profit margins), there are bound to be drops when they don't deliver perfect unicorns and ice cream.
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How exactly is Apple overvalued? Below average P/E ratio with a growth PEG ratio and consistent revenue growth quarter over quarter. If Apple was Tesla, their numbers would blow the doors off every quarterly report.
 
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