Windows 10 Didn’t Stop PC Sales From Dropping This Summer

While this article puts some of the blame on manufacturers releasing Windows 10 on older hardware, I’m thinking that it also had to do with the (relatively) simple and free upgrade process.

As the analyst firms explain, Microsoft's fast-tracked release left many PC makers shipping existing systems with Windows 10, which weren't going to drive demand as much as brand new models. You're not going to buy a months-old laptop just because it's running new software, are you? The big question is whether or not the wave of new Windows 10 PCs launching this fall will make a difference -- if there's still a sharp decline, the industry is really in trouble.

Don't think any one expected to Windows 10 to have any impact on sales this past summer with the free upgrade and lack of new hardware that's just starting come out now.

heatlesssun said:

Don't think any one expected to Windows 10 to have any impact on sales this past summer with the free upgrade and lack of new hardware that's just starting come out now.

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Yeah, the theory is that the uneducated consumer know and care nothing about computer hardware. The big differentiator to them is the Operating system. They don't know how to install or upgrade an operating system (or so they think), so the theory is they would have been holding off to buy a new computer until Windows 10 would be preinstalled, because they wouldn't want to be stuck with an "old" operating system for the 10 year life of their entry level laptop.

This common wisdom has - apparently - been proven wrong. Maybe tons of people - after going through the automated, whether you want it or not, Windows 10 upgrade process realized that their current computer was OK after all, and they didn't need a new one.

Truth is, unless I was an enthusiast and played games at high resolutions, I would probably still be happily using C2D/PhenomII era hardware without any reason to upgrade.

I seriously doubt we are seeing the "Death of the PC", we are more likely just seeing smart consumers starting to realize that their existing hardware is just fine.

I mean, back in the day, most - even ancient - computers could be salvaged by adding ram, and reinstalling the OS. These days you don't even need to do that. Just get a free coerced OS Upgrade

Its all SSD and ram upgrades baby! That's a good chunk of my business, doing upgrades on 5-6 year old laptops and desktops.

As long as its dual core, in reasonable shape and has Windows 7 as a baseline (for an upgrade to 10 if you want it), you are good for another 5 years man!

A good PC lasts a long time and it is much harder for the year over year upgrades now ... I will be getting a new system at the end of the year but it is my first since 2008 ... for PCs it is too easy to push it to end of life or make incremental upgrades (new cards, hard drives, etc) ... very little need outside Enterprise to make year over year purchases

We simply do not need to upgrade out PC's as often anymore. Previously upgrades were very noticeable but now things are rather stagnant. The average PC user expects their purchase to last at least 3-5 years.

Me personally I used to upgrade my mobo/cpu/ram/gfx every single year when something new was released. This isn't the case anymore. My cpu/mobo/ram last me 2 years minimum. I'm running a 3770k o/c to 4.7 for almost two years now with absolutly no need to upgrade unless something major changes. I will upgrade my gfx card about every 1.5 years now.

I bought my last laptop end of 2009 with the new Windows 7. It was a Dell Inspiron 13Z with an extended 8 cell battery, 320GB WD Black HDD, 4GB DDR3, dual core ULV 1.3GHz CPU and Nvidia GPU (yes really).

It now has 6GB of ram, 120GB SSD and Windows 10 installed. Still feels speedy and works fine for configuring routers and the odd bit and bob I do on the road. I still even squeeze 4-5 hours out of the original battery (it would do 10 hours when new). It still only looks a year old, as I look after my kit.

So I am in the right place to think about getting a new laptop but will I? This one still does what I need and to be honest I find Chromebooks more fun and interesting. If I do it may well be the new 13" Dell Chromebook in carbon and magnesium.

In 2010 I upgraded my x2 4800 to a 955BE. In 2011 I upgraded my 8800 GTS 512 to a 4890 for Battlefield 3. Some time after that I added more RAM to give me 8gb. That's how my system sits currently. Now Battlefront is going to force me to upgrade my video card. Until games or other software get more demanding, people are going to be able to use their systems longer than they did in the past.

daglesj said:

Its all SSD and ram upgrades baby!

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Ditto, and rollbacks to Windows 7.

Zarathustra[H];1041904493 said:

Yeah, the theory is that the uneducated consumer know and care nothing about computer hardware. The big differentiator to them is the Operating system. They don't know how to install or upgrade an operating system (or so they think), so the theory is they would have been holding off to buy a new computer until Windows 10 would be preinstalled, because they wouldn't want to be stuck with an "old" operating system for the 10 year life of their entry level laptop.

This common wisdom has - apparently - been proven wrong. Maybe tons of people - after going through the automated, whether you want it or not, Windows 10 upgrade process realized that their current computer was OK after all, and they didn't need a new one.

Truth is, unless I was an enthusiast and played games at high resolutions, I would probably still be happily using C2D/PhenomII era hardware without any reason to upgrade.

I seriously doubt we are seeing the "Death of the PC", we are more likely just seeing smart consumers starting to realize that their existing hardware is just fine.

I mean, back in the day, most - even ancient - computers could be salvaged by adding ram, and reinstalling the OS. These days you don't even need to do that. Just get a free coerced OS Upgrade

Click to expand...

I think smartphones have probably played a roll in that shift in perception of what an update/upgrade to the OS actually is too. Lots of people have upgraded to new versions of iOS/Android in recent years and it is usually relatively painless, much like Windows 10 (unless "something happened" ).

And you are so right about most people's PCs already being "good enough". If it wasn't for gaming and video encoding there is no way I'd have my current system because it would be serious overkill. SSDs are the only hardware upgrade that really makes a noticeable difference to the average user at this point (especially if you are replacing a slow laptop HDD). I think a lot of the potential perceived slowness is actually software based at this point too (bloatware/flash/AV hogging up resources).

I don't understand why the industry doesn't get this. The reason that PC sales are down is that there's been nothing worthwhile to buy in 4 years. Intel is just about improving battery life and their integrated graphics performance. There has not been significant process in raw speed since the I7-2600K.

The reason that tablet sales have been good is that they are cheap and there have been significant improvements. Double processing speed on the PC platform and there will be tons of people upgrading. The only significant upgrades since 2011 have been SSD drives, graphic cards, and the new monitors with g-sync/freesync. Only gamers care about the graphic cards and monitors so that leaves the SSD's. You don't need a new PC to get an SSD drive since they are easy to add and are relatively inexpensive.

A significant portion of the population that originally bought PC's just to be online have figured out that a tablet can do all that they really need. Windows 8.x has also been a significant deterrent since it provided a crappy desktop experience out of the box compared to Windows XP/Windows 7. There might be more desktop upgrades nearer Christmas when Skylake becomes more available in the USA. I think the biggest increase in sales will be when the original hard drives begin failing in all of the old PC's out there and people use that as an excuse to upgrade to current standards.

mlcarson said:

I don't understand why the industry doesn't get this. The reason that PC sales are down is that there's been nothing worthwhile to buy in 4 years. Intel is just about improving battery life and their integrated graphics performance. There has not been significant process in raw speed since the I7-2600K.
Double processing speed on the PC platform and there will be tons of people upgrading. The only significant upgrades since 2011 have been SSD drives, graphic cards, and the new monitors with g-sync/freesync. Only gamers care about the graphic cards and monitors so that leaves the SSD's. You don't need a new PC to get an SSD drive since they are easy to add and are relatively inexpensive.

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This.

At the office, we replace the laptops of the sales/tech people who travel every 3 years.
The current replacements are not noticeably faster (CPU/memory) than the laptops from 3 years ago.
They are only about 20% faster than the laptops from 5/6 years ago, which we replaced becuase they could only be upgraded to 8GB ram, and we needed 16GB.

Only real improvement, is that we are putting SSD's in the laptops of the people that really need the performance boost. SSD's are also getting cheap enough that I've been upgrading some of the older laptops. Even the 6 year old ones would be fine for most the office users with an SSD.

I've even upgraded some 8/9 year old laptops with dual core cpu's and 4GB ram to Windows 10. Even on a mechanical drive, the faster hybrid boot makes them seem a lot faster. I even tested one with an SSD, and felt like a decent, usable laptop. Only problem is these older laptops kind of bulky and heavy (and look too outdated) for general use. I might have to retire them for that reason.

Windows 10 certainly can be that killer application.... in that it kills some peripherals, like cameras and card readers.

Noetic said:

Windows 10 certainly can be that killer application.... in that it kills some peripherals, like cameras and card readers.

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I have often found that cameras and add in card readers often have custom firmware included in what is a standard product from the likes of TEAC etc.

Quite why the OEMs do this I don't know. Maybe to stop the average joe ripping a USB card reader out of a Dell and slipping it into a HP?

heatlesssun said:

Don't think any one expected to Windows 10 to have any impact on sales this past summer with the free upgrade and lack of new hardware that's just starting come out now.

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I think through Windows XP, Microsoft and Windows helped new PC sales or even drove new PC sales even earlier than Windows XP. With each new release after Windows 7, the system requirements for Windows have not changed. According to Microsoft's system requirements, you do not need a faster computer to run Windows 10 than you did for Windows 8.1/8 or Windows 7 (with a few exceptions for a few features).

My thought that the reason we still see headlines like "Windows 10 Didn't Stop PC Sales From Dropping This Summer" is historically a new Windows release might have turned around PC sales. Maybe this is yet another reason Microsoft is going down the "Windows-as-a-Service" (I don't like that name) route. At least there is probably less pressure from OEMs to pursue big Windows releases if OEMs don't see much benefit from it.

At the very least, the relationship is more complex now. New designs from manufacturers make new versions of Windows look more attractive, you may want to purchase a new form factor because it is innovative and works better with Windows 10 than the traditional laptop or desktop, and Windows 8 and 10 made designs more workable than they were using Windows 7.

That being said, I felt my laptop performance was noticeably worse with Windows 8, 8.1, and 10 than with Windows 7. It is a Lenovo ThinkPad x120e with an AMD E-350. I was going for inexpensive portability at the time, and the performance level was probably comparable to an x64 Atom when you factor out the "APU," so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised.

The OS is no longer a driving factor for upgrades. In years past, it most certainly WAS! If you were going to upgrade to Windows 95? New PC. Upgrade to Windows 2000? Yup, new PC. Upgrade to XP? DEFINITELY new PC!

Now, PCs that are years old are perfectly capable of running the OS and handling basic tasks like word processing, spreadsheets, email, web browsing, etc. The only segment driving new hardware is gaming...