Windows 10 to Have 'Little Impact' on Tablet Sales Before Late 2016

CommanderFrank

CommanderFrank

Cat Can't Scratch It
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Windows 10 will be showcased to the public next week and is expected to released sometime in 2015, its full effect on the tablet market will not be felt until sometime late in 2016 according to analysts at CCS. The amount of impact will depend on how well Microsoft did in creating an operating system that will erase the memory of Windows 8, integration with the multitude of tablets on the market and the method of OS distribution, as in stand alone or subscription.

"We expect Android to continue dominating the low-end and mid-range market, with Apple taking the lion's share of the high-end.
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I agree. The tablet market is going to be difficult to break into. Windows is the desktop. iOS or Android is tablet. That's what people know. Windows on a tablet? Prove it. Windows 8 on the desktop gave people a sour taste of things. It's excellent on the tablet, though. So, people were upset when they played with it with mouse and keyboard, but didn't give it a chance on tablet. Now, if they started with a tablet, it'd be much easier to go to the desktop.

Windows 10 should easily appeal to both markets and do it well. Just expect some push back at first.
 
I didn't get the memo, but what happened to Windows 9?
 
2015 is ripe for Windows 8 and 10 tablets. Surface Pro 3 is already selling hot and Broadwell Core M will make it more so. Have already switched from ARM to Thinkpad Helix2 Core M tablets that have equivalent performance to i5 but fanless, cool under load, 8 hour battery life and without the limitation of Android and iOS tablets.
 
Ur_Mom said:
Reality? Even that may be a cop out. They aren't worried about shitty programming from over a decade ago.
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I can definitely believe that there are a bunch of lazily coded Windows apps that include this version check. I don't necessarily mean Microsoft's apps, I mean third party apps.
 
mi7chy said:
2015 is ripe for Windows 8 and 10 tablets. Surface Pro 3 is already selling hot and Broadwell Core M will make it more so. Have already switched from ARM to Thinkpad Helix2 Core M tablets that have equivalent performance to i5 but fanless, cool under load, 8 hour battery life and without the limitation of Android and iOS tablets.
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Microsoft has along way to go with its tablet and phone app stores. Lack of apps is by far the biggest problem for Microsoft in the mobile space. I don't really know how 10 will help there directly, though a popular Windows 10 should help more than an unpopular Windows 8.

2014 however was a good year on the devices side. Substantially lower prices and finally a popular Tablet PC hybrid in the Surface Pro 3 well after a decade since Windows XP Tablet PC Edition hit the market. One thing that does seem to missing are Windows tablet options in the $400 to $800 range. Most of the interesting devices are below or above this range.
 
heatlesssun said:
Microsoft has along way to go with its tablet and phone app stores. Lack of apps is by far the biggest problem for Microsoft in the mobile space. I don't really know how 10 will help there directly, though a popular Windows 10 should help more than an unpopular Windows 8.
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Windows 8.1 should have done a lot, but the name was already a bit tarnished. Windows 10 is a bit better. Hopefully, we can see continuum in action next week. Resizable store apps that act similar to desktop apps will bring a lot of those apps to desktop users. So, it's not so much limited to daring desktop users or tablet users. It's targeted towards everyone. Most desktop users may not have a single Store app. Most tablet users have a lot more. (typical users, not all. I have several Store apps). The overall market for Store apps will increase greatly with Windows 10.

Lack of apps is part of it. Lack of quality apps is another. There is a LOT of junk and/or scamming in the Windows Store. It's something they've brought up to Microsoft, even some of us asking to be a part of moderating the store. Just report them, and they'll go to the right people. Can take some time, and they don't have huge resources dedicated to the store, but it's going to get done. Still, they need to do more. I have apps on my Windows Phone, SP3, and desktops. There are some good ones out there, but you really need to filter and some are try for a bit to find out it's pretty worthless...

I really think Win10 will change a lot for the Windows Store and it's success. Otherwise, Windows 10 isn't much greater than Windows 7 when you think about it. You launch an application and you spend your time there. Some people have Excel open all day. There isn't a lick of difference between Excel 2013 on Windows 10 or Windows 7. It offers some under the hood improvements for IT staff and end users that they won't directly see, and that's a tough sell. For some, it comes down to "Can it run xxx program?". If their existing OS can do it, they have no reason to upgrade until they buy a new computer because their old one is too slow or broken...
 
The ironic thing is that Apple doesn't really have anything at upper end of tablet market. While it's a small number, I'm guessing that the majority of tablets above $800 are Windows.
 
Ur_Mom said:
If their existing OS can do it, they have no reason to upgrade until they buy a new computer because their old one is too slow or broken...
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I agree overall with your post. Windows 8 wasn't just about the OS but about new devices. And the state of those new devices was in worse than Windows 8 at launch in 2012. The hardware finally start to get interesting last year and with Cherry Trail and more Core M chips on the way, Windows 10 is coming at a much better time for low cost, power efficient and good performance x86chips and SoCs.

PCs had gotten to be so much conventional cheap plastic crap and for all of Windows 8's failure's, it does look like OEMs are really starting to take to heart the idea of doing new things.
 
Just flood the market with tablets that run full Windows. I feel like the concept sells itself. I mean, you'd have be fucking retarded to take Android or iOS over Windows. The only reason I even tolerate that shit is because there's no Windows tablet with an OLED screen.
 
Megalith said:
Just flood the market with tablets that run full Windows. I feel like the concept sells itself. I mean, you'd have be fucking retarded to take Android or iOS over Windows. The only reason I even tolerate that shit is because there's no Windows tablet with an OLED screen.
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With the lower cost tablets, I'd agree. The iPad was excellent when I first got it. I wanted to wait for the Surface, but I didn't. I bought 8+ months before the Surface was released. I loved the iPad. But, it was too limited. Still, for a simple tablet, it's great. Replaced it with a Surface Pro 3 and rarely use the iPad anymore. It would have a purpose, but the Surface is much more capable of anything.
 
Megalith said:
Just flood the market with tablets that run full Windows. I feel like the concept sells itself. I mean, you'd have be fucking retarded to take Android or iOS over Windows. The only reason I even tolerate that shit is because there's no Windows tablet with an OLED screen.
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If it's a touch screen device that doesn't fit into your pocket, it has no market. Tablets are dead unless you're using it as a baby sitter for a child.
 
ICOM said:
If it's a touch screen device that doesn't fit into your pocket, it has no market. Tablets are dead unless you're using it as a baby sitter for a child.
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:confused: Tablets are huge right now. Could be a fad, but they are still huge sellers. People want tablets for babysitters, ebooks, use of a computer without a full laptop/computer, email, web, etc.. Tiny tablets would work, but there isn't a huge market for them.
 
Duh, devs are rarely ahead of the curve in terms of having apps ready for new os launches. Microsoft should court some of the bigger devs to promote their universal apps to show how beneficial it can be to publish their apps on three platforms with ease. Once they can launch the apps the tablets will sell themselves especially with the games spearheading the charge. They are already carving a nice niche for themselves with the Surface Pro line but they have lots of ground to make up on the lower end tablet market and even more so for phones.
 
elzeus said:
They are already carving a nice niche for themselves with the Surface Pro line but they have lots of ground to make up on the lower end tablet market and even more so for phones.
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The lower end tablet space where is Windows saw a lot of growth in devices last year due to free Windows. There's now even unbranded Chinese tablets using the same hardware as Android, they're just taking existing x86 Android tablets and slapping Windows on them.

Microsoft is probably destined to be the 3rd string quarter back in mobile. But at least with tablets I think it can etch out a decent market. A market that's looking for tablet form factor devices that aren't mostly geared for consumption. There's actually be a market for these kinds of devices for years now, just a very small one. But ever and ever cheaper devices with more capabilities is probably helping to expand it.
 
Where Windows 10 will (hopefully) have its largest impact is in the ignored, neglected, but still very vibrant and robust PC marketplace. 400M PCs a year w/Win10 should present no surprise. I predict we will from that point forward see a further divergence from the so-called tablets to traditional PCs, with even the "high-end" tablets taking a distinct back seat. That's only to be expected, really, as PCs can be far more powerful and as a result, far more useful.
 
WaltC said:
Where Windows 10 will (hopefully) have its largest impact is in the ignored, neglected, but still very vibrant and robust PC marketplace. 400M PCs a year w/Win10 should present no surprise. I predict we will from that point forward see a further divergence from the so-called tablets to traditional PCs, with even the "high-end" tablets taking a distinct back seat. That's only to be expected, really, as PCs can be far more powerful and as a result, far more useful.
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Top end performance doesn't inherently make a device more useful. I guess since this is a enthusiasts hardware forum where members place a premium on performance per dollar, the importance of portability to average folks is underestimated.

I think tablet/PC convergence is going to play a key role going forward. I don't think Apple or Google will be content with their tablets being only for consumptive tasks while Microsoft continues to refine the hybrid nature of Windows and as hybrid devices like the Surface Pro 3 and cheaper alternatives mature.

Bay Trail made great strides in decent, business class performance x86 tablets with good battery life and low price points. Cherry Trail should improve on that. I think at some point these tablets and hybrids should be good enough for many traditional PC users who want light and portable devices that can accomplish the role of a tablet or PC in one device at the price of just a laptop or tablet alone.
 
Megalith said:
Just flood the market with tablets that run full Windows. I feel like the concept sells itself. I mean, you'd have be fucking retarded to take Android or iOS over Windows. The only reason I even tolerate that shit is because there's no Windows tablet with an OLED screen.
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That statement is almost as clueless as Microsoft in terms of failing to understand the mobile market. The average tablet user does not care about running x86 programs. Ask 100 random iPad or Android tablet owners about the idea of a tablet that could run full Photoshop - how many would really care? Not many.

Development of x86 programs is stagnant as well -- other than the annualized iterations of MS Office or the Adobe stuff, and maybe games, there's really not a whole lot going on. The future is mobile apps.
 
elzeus said:
Duh, devs are rarely ahead of the curve in terms of having apps ready for new os launches.
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Securing launch apps is a platform holder problem (Microsoft), not a developer problem. Ironically, MS seems to understand the importance of lining up third party developers and key/killer titles ahead of time when it comes to their console launches. But they didn't bother with Win8 and remains to be seen if they'll bother with Win10.

elzeus said:
Microsoft should court some of the bigger devs to promote their universal apps to show how beneficial it can be to publish their apps on three platforms with ease. Once they can launch the apps the tablets will sell themselves especially with the games spearheading the charge.
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Assuming Universal Apps are some sort of app holy grail to begin with, sure. (Hint: not likely, as WinPhone app developers don't seem to be too happy with all the new limitations in UA/WinRT versus the freedoms they had in Silverlight for example).

"Proving how beneficial" Universal Apps are has to start with Microsoft. And if they can't even make the case with their own apps - which so far they haven't - they really can't blame third party developers for failing to see any wisdom in it. At a minimum there needs to be a Universal App MS Office to prove to everything just how viable UA's are, and that they're truly "one app for all platforms" like they've tried and failed to do for years now. Just like there should have been a touch/Metro version of Office with Windows 8's launch to prove how viable they believed Metro was - but, again, they didn't bother.
 
DPI said:
That statement is almost as clueless as Microsoft in terms of failing to understand the mobile market. The average tablet user does not care about running x86 programs. Ask 100 random iPad or Android tablet owners about the idea of a tablet that could run full Photoshop - how many would really care? Not many.
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I agree. And it's not that they are clueless about it. Getting more touch first store apps on Windows is one of the biggest issues facing Windows on tablet and phones.

However, niche as it is, there's clearly a market for Windows tablets. A market that willing to pay a lot more for the right devices than anything iOS or Android based currently. And there is some appeal even to more average tablet users with lower cost Windows tablets that are more flexible than a mobile OS based tablet. There are some pretty decent Windows tablets in the $200 to $400 range that can a lot of different things, even run like a desktop connected to an external monitor with reasonable performance.

DPI said:
Development of x86 programs is stagnant as well -- other than the annualized iterations of MS Office or the Adobe stuff, and maybe games, there's really not a whole lot going on. The future is mobile apps.
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There's just so many x86 apps since they've been around for so long. However there are spots like games where x86 is very active with new titles. At some point there's going to be a slow down in phone and tablet apps. After 5 million or so it just gets much harder to do a lot that's not be done before.
 
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