Apple Is The Next Microsoft: Barclays Downgrades Apple

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An analyst has downgraded Apple's stock saying that the company's stock will remain flat, much they way Microsoft's has been for years.

"We look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked."
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"Apple is the Next Microsoft"

In Apple's collective wet dreams...
 
These analysts are ridiculous. I won't call them wrong, but I will say they have no idea if apple is headed for a flat stock price or not. They make up some mumbo jumbo bullshit and point at a chart like the past can 100% predict the future.

Right now Apple is doing pretty damn well on main street. Wall street is snubbing it, but oh well. I would be more worried if I had money in bubble stocks like the social media ones, or so called "growth" stocks. The bubble will burst eventually on those.
 
Apple hasn't brought in anything new other than more mobile products and refining their standard laptop/desktop departments.

I do however think once they start releasing more entertainment devices like rumored, they will again see growth.
 
These analysts are idiots. I remember they hit Samsung hard when they only made a 24.8% or something increase in profit vs the 25.1% they expected. The stock went down with increased profits, what in the flying fuck. :confused:
 
It's not only profit but forecast. Strong profit plus weak forecast can bring down a stock.
 
Chas said:
"Apple is the Next Microsoft"

In Apple's collective wet dreams...
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You must not follow the stock market. MSFT has been a very poor performer for a long time while AAPL has had an exceptional run.
 
Meanwhile, stock goes down. Apple buys back their own stock at lower prices and stock price rebounds up again.
 
Ouch.. Steve Jobs will be missed. I really believe his mind just thought different. He came up with some awesome designs no one thought of. Even if it was just his inspiration.

Example Windows had smart phones forever, but it was Apple that made the big change. Heck Steve even called Corning directly to talk about the glass that was invented 40 years ago.

And no I don't own any Apple products, just admired his abilities to drive a company.
 
It's like anything else in life once a fantastic level of success has been achieved. How do you top it? It's possible but very difficult. And it's hard to imagine a lot of scenarios where Apple can drive the phenomenal growth it has had over the last decade.
 
Remember, this was a company whose stock at one time was $5 a share and it was all but dead.

Hate them or love them, you can't argue with the #'s.

So, while the critics can claim what they want as far as its future. While I can't stand Apple or its products, the truth is what it is.
 
Analysts are people who analyze businesses without knowing anything about them. Keep in mind, analysts were pumping Blackberry's new Z10 and telling everybody how it could be the iPhone killer everybody has been waiting for. Does anybody remember how that worked out? For a few short months, Blackberry had a nice run up to the $17 range... and then something happened, Z10 was released. As a UI/UX guy who does a little mobile development here and there, I knew from the beginning Z10 was utter crap, just like everybody else I knew.... but the analysts on Wall Street were pumping the stock like it was everybody's golden ticket. Needless to say, I know more than a few people who believed the analysts and got burned in the process.

Analysts are bookworm eggheads who know very little about the real world, and yes, that's me being nice. They often are able to identify useful information, but interpreting that information is a completely different issue.

If anything, we should all be thanking the analysts at Barclays for allowing us to buy shares at a severe discount. Load up while you can. I suspect Apple will be the first company to reach a one trillion dollar valuation, which will be a little more than double their current price per share.

Good luck to all investors
 
lukekeith said:
Analysts are people who analyze businesses without knowing anything about them. Keep in mind, analysts were pumping Blackberry's new Z10 and telling everybody how it could be the iPhone killer everybody has been waiting for. Does anybody remember how that worked out? For a few short months, Blackberry had a nice run up to the $17 range... and then something happened, Z10 was released. As a UI/UX guy who does a little mobile development here and there, I knew from the beginning Z10 was utter crap, just like everybody else I knew.... but the analysts on Wall Street were pumping the stock like it was everybody's golden ticket. Needless to say, I know more than a few people who believed the analysts and got burned in the process.

Analysts are bookworm eggheads who know very little about the real world, and yes, that's me being nice. They often are able to identify useful information, but interpreting that information is a completely different issue.

If anything, we should all be thanking the analysts at Barclays for allowing us to buy shares at a severe discount. Load up while you can. I suspect Apple will be the first company to reach a one trillion dollar valuation, which will be a little more than double their current price per share.

Good luck to all investors
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Don't you think AAPL has been way over-valued?
 
lukekeith said:
Analysts are people who analyze businesses without knowing anything about them. Keep in mind, analysts were pumping Blackberry's new Z10 and telling everybody how it could be the iPhone killer everybody has been waiting for. Does anybody remember how that worked out? For a few short months, Blackberry had a nice run up to the $17 range... and then something happened, Z10 was released. As a UI/UX guy who does a little mobile development here and there, I knew from the beginning Z10 was utter crap, just like everybody else I knew.... but the analysts on Wall Street were pumping the stock like it was everybody's golden ticket. Needless to say, I know more than a few people who believed the analysts and got burned in the process.
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:confused:
 
jwcalla said:
Don't you think AAPL has been way over-valued?
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I personally believe a more fair value for Apple at the moment is a number closer to $620 due to the China Mobile deal, iPhone 5s, iTunes success, app store, etc.. People are all too fixated on the idea that Apple is no longer innovating. Do they really think Apple doesn't have dozens of ideas in the works at any given moment? The reason people wait in line to buy an iPhone, and the reason there is so much hype/rumors around Apple products is because Apple builds their products right. Their focus has always been making the best products, and they have shown no sign of that changing any time soon.

Apple is severely undervalued, but all that means is that everybody has a chance to load up on more shares while they are cheap. Once the fundamentals catch up to the stock, things will look very different for Apple.

Think about this.... over HALF of Apple's revenue is from the iPhone. They have a valuation of nearly a half trillion dollars, meaning $250B of that valuation is from iPhones alone. Imagine what would happen if Apple were to release even one more hit product like the iPhone bringing in another $250B of value to their valuation. That would represent an approximate share price of $840 based on today's numbers....

In short, they will definitely cross the $1,000 share price mark at some point in the near future, it's only a question of which new product release will take them there.
 
jwcalla said:
Don't you think AAPL has been way over-valued?
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Nope. Even when it was at almost $700 it had a lower PE than the other big techs. At $450 it had a lower PE than Dell, a company that was looking for a buyer. Google has over double the PE of AAPL and is growing its revenue at a lower rate.

The biggest hurdle to Apple's stock price growth is its market capitalization. By every other metric it is one of the most undervalued large cap tech stocks around.
 
xIronCrossx said:
These analysts are idiots. I remember they hit Samsung hard when they only made a 24.8% or something increase in profit vs the 25.1% they expected. The stock went down with increased profits, what in the flying fuck. :confused:
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LOL, I couldn't have said it better myself.
 
ol1bit said:
Ouch.. Steve Jobs will be missed.
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Not by anyone who ever had to work with or for him.

I really believe his mind just thought different.
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So do other people's. Chuck Manson. Richard Nixon. Timothy McVeigh.

He came up with some awesome designs no one thought of.
Click to expand...

Like the Lisa? Meanwhile other teams were working on the Mac?

Jobs was very good at finished aesthetics. Making something LOOK sexy.
Most of the real work was done by the plebes at Apple though.
 
see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two
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Apple had a touch decade and came back?
 
FLECOM said:
Apple had a touch decade and came back?
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That's mostly what happens when a company is criminally mismanaged (as Apple was) and then reverts to proper management.

Amelio and company basically flushed Apple down the drain with a series of stupid, hackish "also ran" plans. Basically they're what handed the market to Wintel, and to this day, they're what's forcing Apple to be a "niche" company.
 
drescherjm said:
You must not follow the stock market. MSFT has been a very poor performer for a long time while AAPL has had an exceptional run.
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Depends on when you bought the stock.

I bought Microsoft it was way down, and it's worth almost double now, plus it's been paying good dividends the past few years.

If you bought apple when they where predicting it would hit $1,000 you would be disappointed with the current price.
 
lukekeith said:
The reason people wait in line to buy an iPhone, and the reason there is so much hype/rumors around Apple products is because Apple builds their products right. Their focus has always been making the best products, and they have shown no sign of that changing any time soon.
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How's that cool-aid taste?

Best products? Not by any measure I'd use.
Many people are waking up to how over-priced and limited Apple's products really are.
Apple makes "trendy" products that sell for a premium. They have never been able to compete on price.


lukekeith said:
Apple is severely undervalued, but all that means is that everybody has a chance to load up on more shares while they are cheap. Once the fundamentals catch up to the stock, things will look very different for Apple.
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You must have a lot investing in Apple stock.
I'd suggest selling some of it before it drops even more.


lukekeith said:
Think about this.... over HALF of Apple's revenue is from the iPhone. They have a valuation of nearly a half trillion dollars, meaning $250B of that valuation is from iPhones alone. Imagine what would happen if Apple were to release even one more hit product like the iPhone bringing in another $250B of value to their valuation. That would represent an approximate share price of $840 based on today's numbers....
Click to expand...

And Apple's market share of smart phones continues to drop.
Apple got lucky with the iPhone, they took existing technologies and wrapped them into a fancy package, while the potential competitors all dropped the ball for way too long (Both Blackberry and Microsoft)

The chance of that happening again is extremely remote.

a large part of iPhone sales are upgrades/replacements. This is due to people having invested too much into iTunes and apps. I see this all the time, where people at work buy another iPhone, because that's what they had before. Meanwhile most the people who didn't previously have an iPhone end up buying an Android phone.
 
nutzo said:
And Apple's market share of smart phones continues to drop.
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That declining marketshare is almost entirely due to low end Android phones being sold in China, South America, India, and Eastern Europe.

iOS marketshare isn't being lost to competing high end Android smartphones. Samsung has been the most successful with the GS4 and GN3, but their high end devices went from nearly half their sales to only 1/5th in a year. Samsung's high end sales stagnated while their low end sales exploded and iPhone sales continued to accelerate. The iPhone 5S sold in a weekend what the GS4 did in its first month, and in total it will sell about 4x as many units.

Other OEMs didn't make up for Samsung's stagnation either. HTC and LG high-end sales actually declined year-over-year, despite them IMHO having better hardware with the One and G2.

All of this explains why iOS has more mobile online traffic, double the app revenue, and the majority of mobile ad revenue generated (even for Google) than Android despite being on 1/5 of hardware.

Talking about the iPhone's declining marketshare is meaningless when you don't take into account the class of hardware that is running other operating systems. iOS still owns the high end, and until low end users convert to high end Android in massive numbers then all this marketshare talk is useless. Low end devices that barely qualify as featurephones are still low end no matter what OS is running on it.
 
MostComfortable said:
That declining marketshare is almost entirely due to low end Android phones being sold in China, South America, India, and Eastern Europe.

iOS marketshare isn't being lost to competing high end Android smartphones.
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iPhone 5s is low end to mid range at best compared to high end Android phones. It's comparable to a $199 Motorola Moto G.
 
mi7chy said:
iPhone 5s is low end to mid range at best compared to high end Android phones. It's comparable to a $199 Motorola Moto G.
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Get a clue dude.

If you look at benchmarks that are relative to what you actually use, aka apps, you will see the 5s is always at the top or close to it. While the Android phones are technically more powerful, it never shows in any game or app other than specific benchmarks. It's really similar to 3dmark scores vs actual gaming/computing performance with PC's. Only place where it "fails" is cellular talk time, which is quite awful.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/5
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/7
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/9
 
shade91 said:
The blame rests solely on Tim Cook's inability to be an effective leader.
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Protip. A lot of things people blame Cook for... were already in motion when Jobs was still alive.

Face it. People worshipped a shitty man and hung on his every word regardless of how mediocre or trivial the product he was pushing actually was.
 
xIronCrossx said:
Get a clue dude.

If you look at benchmarks that are relative to what you actually use, aka apps, you will see the 5s is always at the top or close to it. While the Android phones are technically more powerful, it never shows in any game or app other than specific benchmarks. It's really similar to 3dmark scores vs actual gaming/computing performance with PC's. Only place where it "fails" is cellular talk time, which is quite awful.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/5
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/7
http://www.anandtech.com/show/7335/the-iphone-5s-review/9
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Part of the problem is that Android is terribly optimized compared to iOS or WP8, part of it is that more RAM and more cores doesn't yield greater performance, and iDevices continue to use the best GPUs in their SoCs.

It is funny though hearing supposed "techies" talk about the 5S as a mid-tier phone when it rolls over everything else out there and actually has applications that push the hardware.
 
I think Apple would be in worse situation than MS.

MS core business is enterprise which is highly profitable and much more stable. MS has no competitor in their core business.

Apple core business is consumer which is highly competitive, and they have a strong competitor, Google/Samsung.

While MS can afford to sit on their cash cow core business and explore other market for years, Apple can't afford this same fortune.
 
MostComfortable said:
Part of the problem is that Android is terribly optimized compared to iOS or WP8, part of it is that more RAM and more cores doesn't yield greater performance, and iDevices continue to use the best GPUs in their SoCs.

It is funny though hearing supposed "techies" talk about the 5S as a mid-tier phone when it rolls over everything else out there and actually has applications that push the hardware.
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Well that's actually pretty easy to do when you only have to support one or two phones on an OS you wrote yourself and have 99% of your user base captured into your own app store.
 
Chas said:
Well that's actually pretty easy to do when you only have to support one or two phones on an OS you wrote yourself and have 99% of your user base captured into your own app store.
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to be fair, iOS 7 supports:
iPhones 4, 4S, 5, 5S
iPads 2, 3, 4, Air, Mini, Mini w/ Retina
 
I don't see whats wrong, you have 3 options

Apple grows huge and gets tons more profit. Unlikely given android has nearly wrapped up a monopoly on mobile and the desktop / laptop market is stagnant.

Apple crashes down. Also unlikely given how attached people are to apple and how large their profits are. it will take a long time before apples huge app library finally starts to dwindle to the point where mass people exit the ecosystem. Several years at the least. They still can move through years of doing simple things like bigger screens, lower priced devices before it really starts to fall apart and unlike many hurting companies apple has plenty of cash in the back to try a lot of things.

So that leaves remaining flat. The most sensible future course.
 
techrat said:
Protip. A lot of things people blame Cook for... were already in motion when Jobs was still alive.
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No, bullcrap. That is Obama and his "This is what I inherited" nonsense. They are in positions of such power that they can change the course of the ship at their whim. Anything else is the sign of an ineffective leader.
 
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