It's a simple equation.
1. Mothers will hate the WiiU that adds an expensive glass screened eminently breakable 'master' controller guaranteed to incite hard fought 'keep away' battles among siblings/friends when more than one child is playing on top of the usual clutter of Nintendo controllers that get stepped on, lost, broken and need replacement. The 'master' controller is also big and heavy enough to do some damage when used as an offensive weapon in a fight for control. The Xbox Kinect was the fastest selling electronics device ever for a reason - mothers ... nothing to fight over, step on, break, get lost, need replacing and clutter up the place. That's something mothers everywhere can fall deeply in love with.
2. The WiiU with it's learning curve complexity and comparatively high cost will turn off what remains of the new 'casual' gaming demographic the Wii brought into existence that long ago put their Wii's in a drawer or closet and now game on their smart phones or tablets. The WiiU offers that demographic zilch. Which is what WiiU sales will be to that demographic.
3. The hard core gamers are self explanatory. The WiiU will only capture a very small percentage of those with the Xbox Next and PS4 just around the corner.
4. That leaves the core Nintendo fan boys who will buy whatever Nintendo puts out pushing sales for the first few months and then start tapering off as those unsatiated fan boy numbers steadily diminish. They'll diminish even faster if Microsoft presents some mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities during the January shows creating a firestorm of interest, after which WiiU sales will fall off a cliff and all eyes and attention turn to the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony. Holiday season 2013 will not provide a respite as anyone still on the fence will succumb to the siren call of the Xbox 720 or PS4. If the PS4 slips into 2014 Microsoft will be happy to offer both a cheap TV/Casual gaming console or a more expensive full on hard core gaming console both affordable with low down, extended contracts pricing and both offering mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities and experiences.
The WiiU was a gargantuan face plant created by Nintendo's extremely conservative and hubristic top brass in Japan. It's handheld hardware will steadily lose ground to smartphones and tablets, including an Xbox tablet strongly rumored to be in development and launching next year.
Nintendo's console is toast as will be very clear by this time next year when it's weekly sales are counted in the low five digits and it's stock will be mercilessly hammered. Nintendo is currently operating in the red to the tune of half a billion U.S. dollars a year, which stream of red ink will turn into a raging river as WiiU hardware and software sales dry up.
It doesn't take a crystal ball to discern that in two or three years Nintendo's will be out of the hardware business and be busy leveraging it's IP to make games for other systems ... if it survives at all and it's IP isn't bought up by someone else.
Keep in mind how FAST things move these days. Four years ago Nokia and RIM ruled the smartphone market. Nintendo coming out with an updated console in 2014 in 2015 is moot. Even if there was some magnitude 8 shake-up in the boardroom (hopefully nowhere near Fukushima, unleashing 50 Chernobyl's on the world for the next several centuries), Nintendo has no chance of ever catching up with Microsoft and Sony.
For that matter Sony, in it's ever more precarious financial position, will be hard pressed to stay in the game against what is looking to be a Microsoft next gen juggernaut with a two tier hardware offering, more powerful console, better ecosystem, Kinect 2 and a low down/extended contract pricing model that allows pretty much anyone to afford to buy into their gaming ecosystem.
If Nintendo survives at all it will be as a game developer for other systems. If it's board continues it's hubristic ways, Nintendo will likely cease to exist as a separate corporate entity.
1. Mothers will hate the WiiU that adds an expensive glass screened eminently breakable 'master' controller guaranteed to incite hard fought 'keep away' battles among siblings/friends when more than one child is playing on top of the usual clutter of Nintendo controllers that get stepped on, lost, broken and need replacement. The 'master' controller is also big and heavy enough to do some damage when used as an offensive weapon in a fight for control. The Xbox Kinect was the fastest selling electronics device ever for a reason - mothers ... nothing to fight over, step on, break, get lost, need replacing and clutter up the place. That's something mothers everywhere can fall deeply in love with.
2. The WiiU with it's learning curve complexity and comparatively high cost will turn off what remains of the new 'casual' gaming demographic the Wii brought into existence that long ago put their Wii's in a drawer or closet and now game on their smart phones or tablets. The WiiU offers that demographic zilch. Which is what WiiU sales will be to that demographic.
3. The hard core gamers are self explanatory. The WiiU will only capture a very small percentage of those with the Xbox Next and PS4 just around the corner.
4. That leaves the core Nintendo fan boys who will buy whatever Nintendo puts out pushing sales for the first few months and then start tapering off as those unsatiated fan boy numbers steadily diminish. They'll diminish even faster if Microsoft presents some mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities during the January shows creating a firestorm of interest, after which WiiU sales will fall off a cliff and all eyes and attention turn to the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Sony. Holiday season 2013 will not provide a respite as anyone still on the fence will succumb to the siren call of the Xbox 720 or PS4. If the PS4 slips into 2014 Microsoft will be happy to offer both a cheap TV/Casual gaming console or a more expensive full on hard core gaming console both affordable with low down, extended contracts pricing and both offering mind blowing Kinect 2 capabilities and experiences.
The WiiU was a gargantuan face plant created by Nintendo's extremely conservative and hubristic top brass in Japan. It's handheld hardware will steadily lose ground to smartphones and tablets, including an Xbox tablet strongly rumored to be in development and launching next year.
Nintendo's console is toast as will be very clear by this time next year when it's weekly sales are counted in the low five digits and it's stock will be mercilessly hammered. Nintendo is currently operating in the red to the tune of half a billion U.S. dollars a year, which stream of red ink will turn into a raging river as WiiU hardware and software sales dry up.
It doesn't take a crystal ball to discern that in two or three years Nintendo's will be out of the hardware business and be busy leveraging it's IP to make games for other systems ... if it survives at all and it's IP isn't bought up by someone else.
Keep in mind how FAST things move these days. Four years ago Nokia and RIM ruled the smartphone market. Nintendo coming out with an updated console in 2014 in 2015 is moot. Even if there was some magnitude 8 shake-up in the boardroom (hopefully nowhere near Fukushima, unleashing 50 Chernobyl's on the world for the next several centuries), Nintendo has no chance of ever catching up with Microsoft and Sony.
For that matter Sony, in it's ever more precarious financial position, will be hard pressed to stay in the game against what is looking to be a Microsoft next gen juggernaut with a two tier hardware offering, more powerful console, better ecosystem, Kinect 2 and a low down/extended contract pricing model that allows pretty much anyone to afford to buy into their gaming ecosystem.
If Nintendo survives at all it will be as a game developer for other systems. If it's board continues it's hubristic ways, Nintendo will likely cease to exist as a separate corporate entity.