The CES Curse?

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Whether you believe in "curses" or not, you have to admit that what this guy is saying is true. Maybe CES will break the cycle this year.

The 2,800 or so exhibitors are hoping to set the tone for the year by showing off tons of tablet computers, throngs of 3-D TVs and untold numbers of slim, light laptops called ultrabooks. But a look back at the products heavily promoted at CES in recent years reveals few successes.
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It isn't CES, it is the nature of the beast. Many products that are pushed out to market end up falling flat no matter who pushes them out. CES just pushes a whole bunch of things out at once so it is a more visible forum.
 
^ - exactly what I was thinking. Most products fail. A lot of products debut at CES --> most products (and a very large quantity) will fail that are debuted this time of year.
 
Most people buy what they want or need, not what others tell them they want or need.
 
Tablets: Just an expensive toy for most people who want to show off how "cool" they are because they have a certain brand tablet. Price needs to be less than $200.

3D TV's: A gimmick that most people don’t want to pay extra for. Too many people have problems with 3D (dizziness, headaches, etc.), or just don’t feel it’s worth spending the $100’s of extra dollars for the TV, glasses, etc.

Ultrabooks: A netbook with a faster CPU and bigger screen. Maybe a good product if the price is right and the performance is close to a regular laptop. However, this will just reduce the sales of larger laptops.
 
nutzo, I can tell you firsthand that my 13" HP Folio 13 ultrabook is light years faster than my 14" HP ProBook 4430s laptop with roughly the same spec. The Folio 13 has an SSD.

The ProBook's only advantage over the Folio 13 is the DVD drive, otherwise the Folio 13 beats it handily in everything else, especially with it's 9 hour battery life.

I love my new Folio 13 :-D
 
nutzo said:
Tablets: Just an expensive toy for most people who want to show off how "cool" they are because they have a certain brand tablet. Price needs to be less than $200.
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So many people really have no idea what "tablet" means, have to thank Apple for that one.
 
Totally agree. Isn't really a curse rather than probability. With so many products being pushed what are the chances that they all succeed?
 
A curse that I hope effects those products. I have no love for 3D TV's or tablets. Not even those Ultra books. Weren't Netbooks considered a failure, so why make ultra books?
 
I have still been asking all about the "big thing" at CES and no one has an answer for me that is serious.
 
Ashbringer said:
A curse that I hope effects those products. I have no love for 3D TV's or tablets. Not even those Ultra books. Weren't Netbooks considered a failure, so why make ultra books?
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Netbook and ultrabooks are not even close to being the same. You might as well wish laptops out of existence with that comment.
 
no curse here...the big thing at this year's event will no doubt be the unveiling of LG's 55" OLED

might not see the light of retail for some time but OLED's are the future and this is the first time the world will truly get to see one on display

rumors are that Microsoft will be unveiling the new Xbox as well...just an announcement as it will not actually be hitting retail until 2013...this is Microsoft's last CES so I'm sure they want to go out with a bang
 
polonyc2 said:
no curse here...the big thing at this year's event will no doubt be the unveiling of LG's 55" OLED

might not see the light of retail for some time but OLED's are the future and this is the first time the world will truly get to see one on display

rumors are that Microsoft will be unveiling the new Xbox as well...just an announcement as it will not actually be hitting retail until 2013...this is Microsoft's last CES so I'm sure they want to go out with a bang
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Well MS is announcing the new Xbox this year, but if they do do it at CES you are probably right. Just a basic "hey it's happening, check back at E3 in June for more". MS will probably talk the hell out of Win8 and tablets and whatever else their backing.
 
heatlesssun said:
Windows 8 will be the big thing at CES, I don't think there's anything else that has anywhere near the implications of Windows 8 in terms of hardware and software going into 2012.
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2012 just started. It's too premature to conclude that one thing will overshadow everything else in the next 359 days.
 
Azhar said:
2012 just started. It's too premature to conclude that one thing will overshadow everything else in the next 359 days.
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I'm not a fortune teller, I'm simply looking at some simple numbers here. Let's say that Windows 8 is a huge flop, and sells only 25% of the number of copies that Windows 7 did in it's first year, about 50 million devices let's say. Those Windows 8 devices now become about as big of a market for tablet software as the iPad in 2013. Few of the Windows 8 devices sold actually have to be touchscreen devices, they can be traditional laptops and desktops and still run typical mobile OS style tablet software. Now if Windows 8 simply matches the number of Windows 7 devices, were talking about 200 million new devices sold in 2013 that can run tablet software.

If you are an iOS or Android developer you're compelled to at least look at Windows 8 if not indeed develop for it, it's a whole new market for your apps.

Yes there will be a new iPad and plenty of new Android tablets but Windows 8 devices will more than likely outsell both combined by a large margin. This is the core of Microsoft's tablet strategy. It's just hard to see how it is a complete flop even if Windows 8 sales are, that's what's so intriguing and big about it I think.
 
Azhar said:
nutzo, I can tell you firsthand that my 13" HP Folio 13 ultrabook is light years faster than my 14" HP ProBook 4430s laptop with roughly the same spec. The Folio 13 has an SSD.

The ProBook's only advantage over the Folio 13 is the DVD drive, otherwise the Folio 13 beats it handily in everything else, especially with it's 9 hour battery life.

I love my new Folio 13 :-D
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My Acer Timeline 1810T is over 2 years old, yet still works for me.
11" screen, 6 hour battery, dual core celeron. A little thick compared to some of the new ultra books, but why replace something that works? Even plays HD movies fine.
Upgraded the disk to 500GB so I can bring several HD movies with me when I travel :)
 
ekuest said:
yes and it also cost what, $1000 after configuring? netbooks cost $150-250. ultrabooks are still destroyed by anything (with an ssd and) a dedicated gpu, often for much less. so its always going to be a niche market.
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Netbooks and ultrabooks are NOT in the same category. Ultrabooks are laptops, not netbooks. Ultrabooks are priced comparatively to laptops. Laptops with integrated GPU are also destroyed by laptops with dedicated ones. What's your point? Not everyone wants to game on them.

I think the word niche is overused these days. iPod used to be niche. Tablets used to be niche. Netbooks are probably still niche but still quite widely used. Ditto e-books. Ditto Keurig machines.

Ultrabooks just got here what? Three weeks ago? Macbook Air was a hit and you all called it a niche when it came out too.
 
ekuest said:
you just cant go anywhere without talking about your S7S huh? :p yeah tablet and slate are very different things: tablet being a toy, and slate being a computer. both have the same form factor. if i had any way to justify it right now id be all over a S8S or whatever when it comes out.
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Long before the iPad or S7S came out there were tablets and they weren't toys. I've been dealing with tablets for a long time, one of my first good contract jobs in the early 90s was developing an inventory management system that used Windows for Pen Computing, long before most people had even seen one so it's just funny to see how little people know about the history.

ekuest said:
windows 8 tablet with docking keyboard/battery and decent specs. all i want. ooh or maybe that kanye west thing. think kanye will have a booth at CES? :D
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So what would you call a decent price?
 
JimmiG said:
Most people buy what they want or need, not what others tell them they want or need.
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i would say your wrong there, most people buy what they are told, look at how many people own Apple products.... OHH SNAP!

but seriously, most people buy crap they dont need, but marketing makes them think they do.
 
Azhar said:
Ultrabooks are priced comparatively to laptops.
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Ultrabooks are priced a BIG price permimum for the computing power they offer over conventional laptops, that's their biggest problem right now.

Azhar said:
Ultrabooks just got here what? Three weeks ago? Macbook Air was a hit and you all called it a niche when it came out too.
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The MBA has done well but many where predicating that it would do much better. Thin and light and is great but most just don't want to pay the money that thin and light costs at the moment.
 
heatlesssun said:
Long before the iPad or S7S came out there were tablets and they weren't toys. I've been dealing with tablets for a long time, one of my first good contract jobs in the early 90s was developing an inventory management system that used Windows for Pen Computing, long before most people had even seen one so it's just funny to see how little people know about the history.
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Microsoft built up, hyped, and then managed to completely decimate the old tablet market in what 2-3 years? Win XP Tablet Edition totally wrecked it. Well between that and other issues caused by manufactures.
 
heatlesssun said:
Ultrabooks are priced a BIG price premium for the computing power they offer over conventional laptops, that's their biggest problem right now.
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No they are not. You're making the mistake of comparing an ultrabook to a conventional sized laptop - 15.6" and 17". Try comparing it to the category it falls in - ultralight notebooks. A comparatively spec'd 12.5" HP Elitebook 2560p laptop starts at $1,229.00. It's priced higher because you're also paying for the luxury of having a DVD drive crammed into it's tiny form factor.

You're paying for power and size. If you want just power, you'd be paying much less. If you want just size, you'll also be paying much less.

It's not niche. It's just one more category of laptops to chose from. Not everyone buys an Alienware Aurora. Not everyone buys Sager. Not everyone buys a Dell Inspiron or an HP Pavilion. Does it make them niches? No. They're just another choice to pick from.
 
Azhar said:
No they are not. You're making the mistake of comparing an ultrabook to a conventional sized laptop - 15.6" and 17". Try comparing it to the category it falls in - ultralight notebooks. A comparatively spec'd 12.5" HP Elitebook 2560p laptop starts at $1,229.00. It's priced higher because you're also paying for the luxury of having a DVD drive crammed into it's tiny form factor.

You're paying for power and size. If you want just power, you'd be paying much less. If you want just size, you'll also be paying much less.

It's not niche. It's just one more category of laptops to chose from. Not everyone buys an Alienware Aurora. Not everyone buys Sager. Not everyone buys a Dell Inspiron or an HP Pavilion. Does it make them niches? No. They're just another choice to pick from.
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arent ultrabooks not selling very well at all? there are like 4 or 5 good ones to choose from i think. you can either get a 4.5lb, 15", i5 notebook for $450, or a 3.5lb, 13" notebook for $800-1000. the vast majority are going to pick the $450 laptop. there is only a small niche of people who care about weight enough to spend $500 to save 1 or 1.5lbs. personally, i would love to have an ultrabook, but for the price id rather get something a tiny bit heavier for a lot less, or else spend the same amount on something more powerful
 
Derangel said:
Microsoft built up, hyped, and then managed to completely decimate the old tablet market in what 2-3 years? Win XP Tablet Edition totally wrecked it. Well between that and other issues caused by manufactures.
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It's really hard to see where Microsoft ever hyped tablets. They'd do a few things but never push the ideas with much effort. At the same time Microsoft launched XP Tablet Edition they actually had samples of a very interesting device that even had demos in retail, a Windows CE ARM based web browsing tablet in 2002 and Microsoft just dropped it.

More so than any real dearth of innovation Microsoft has suffered from a lack vision and commitment. One reason I think Windows 8 is a big deal is that for the first time since forever Microsoft seems to have a goal and a vision and looks to be willing to take some risk. Even if Windows 8 is a flop I applaud the effort just because Microsoft has been so intransigent for a long time now to do anything that is even remotely risky.
 
Azhar said:
No they are not. You're making the mistake of comparing an ultrabook to a conventional sized laptop - 15.6" and 17". Try comparing it to the category it falls in - ultralight notebooks.
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wait what? just reread this and youre telling me to compare ultrabooks to "ultralight notebooks?" you realize youre comparing red delilious to red delicious right? we were arguing that ultrabooks are a niche, which is why we compared them to notebooks outside of their own niche. yes the folio 13 is a great ultrabook, and perhaps its better than other ultrabooks. i was saying that when the majority of people look for a notebook, theyre going to care more about price/performance than price/weight or performance/weight and go with a normal notebook over an ultrabook.
 
Azhar said:
No they are not. You're making the mistake of comparing an ultrabook to a conventional sized laptop - 15.6" and 17". Try comparing it to the category it falls in - ultralight notebooks. A comparatively spec'd 12.5" HP Elitebook 2560p laptop starts at $1,229.00. It's priced higher because you're also paying for the luxury of having a DVD drive crammed into it's tiny form factor.
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Ultralight notebooks and ultrabooks don't really fall into the same category though. I have an ultralight notebook, the Lenovo x220t convertible Tablet PC and the full voltage CPU in devices like it (the x220 has no optical drive) are a good bit faster than the ULV parts in ultrabooks. If an ultrabook is too slow or too low on local drive space for one's needs and they still want something as thin and light as possible indeed an ultralight notebook would be the next step up in the capability food chain. Still on the pricey side but they compromise less in terms of capability than ultrabooks.
 
heatlesssun said:
Ultralight notebooks and ultrabooks don't really fall into the same category though. I have an ultralight notebook, the Lenovo x220t convertible Tablet PC and the full voltage CPU in devices like it (the x220 has no optical drive) are a good bit faster than the ULV parts in ultrabooks. If an ultrabook is too slow or too low on local drive space for one's needs and they still want something as thin and light as possible indeed an ultralight notebook would be the next step up in the capability food chain. Still on the pricey side but they compromise less in terms of capability than ultrabooks.
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But ultrabooks are NOT slow. My Folio 13 can boot Windows 7 in 9 seconds. Programs start when you blink your eyes. My ultrabook has a Core i5, 4GB ram and 128GB SSD. It's not a netbook by any stretch of the imagination. I'm not saying they fall in the same category as ultralight notebooks. I'm saying they're comparable to them. The other poster constantly compare ultrabooks to netbooks and he couldn't be much further from the truth. When you compare their prices to conventional 15-17" laptop it's wrong too. I'm saying that it's more accurate if you compare them to ultralights. Not that they fall into that category.

The laptop I replaced with my new one was an Elitebook 2430p with a Core i3, 4GB RAM and 500GB drive. Aside from losing the DVD drive, I couldn't be happier.

I see nothing wrong with ultrabooks being offered along side of ultralights.

That Elitebook I mentioned was $1200 and my Folio 13 was $899.
 
ekuest said:
arent ultrabooks not selling very well at all? there are like 4 or 5 good ones to choose from i think. you can either get a 4.5lb, 15", i5 notebook for $450, or a 3.5lb, 13" notebook for $800-1000. the vast majority are going to pick the $450 laptop. there is only a small niche of people who care about weight enough to spend $500 to save 1 or 1.5lbs. personally, i would love to have an ultrabook, but for the price id rather get something a tiny bit heavier for a lot less, or else spend the same amount on something more powerful
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Aren't you listening to yourself? The concept of ultrabooks are only 3 weeks old. HP just came out with the Folio 13 just 2 weeks ago. Don't you think it's too soon to declare them dead or not selling well?

You say 15" laptops can sell for $450 and 13" for $800-1000. Guess how much I paid for my Core i5 13" Folio 13? $899. Wouldn't you say that falls right into your expectations of how much laptops should cost?

Just because more people will buy 15" laptop does not make 13" laptop niches. It just makes 15" more preferable.
 
Azhar said:
But ultrabooks are NOT slow. My Folio 13 can boot Windows 7 in 9 seconds. Programs start when you blink your eyes. My ultrabook has a Core i5, 4GB ram and 128GB SSD. It's not a netbook by any stretch of the imagination. I'm not saying they fall in the same category as ultralight notebooks. I'm saying they're comparable to them. The other poster constantly compare ultrabooks to netbooks and he couldn't be much further from the truth. When you compare their prices to conventional 15-17" laptop it's wrong too. I'm saying that it's more accurate if you compare them to ultralights. Not that they fall into that category.

The laptop I replaced with my new one was an Elitebook 2430p with a Core i3, 4GB RAM and 500GB drive. Aside from losing the DVD drive, I couldn't be happier.

I see nothing wrong with ultrabooks being offered along side of ultralights.

That Elitebook I mentioned was $1200 and my Folio 13 was $899.
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I never said that ultrabooks are slow. I have a Samsung Series 7 Slate that's essentially an
ultrabook with has the same specs you listed for your Folio, i5, 4GB RAM, 128 GB SSD, boots in about the same time. But even with the mechanical hard drive in my x220t, the x220t with it's full voltage i7 is noticeably faster, with enough power to game fairly well for a non-gaming machine and if I want I can put a huge SSD in it and make it very zippy.

$899 is still a premium to pay for this level of performance. Granted the SSD is a boost but the CPU and GPU power simply take a good hit on the ULVs, they only have half the TDP of the full voltage parts after all.
 
CES is essentially a place for companies to announce their "amazing" new stuff. Yeah, a lot of the products don't sell, but that's to be expected. Companies try to push new crap at people so fast, they never even hear of half the products that are released. Take Motorola, for example. My Droid 2 is only a little over a year old, and it's going to be three models obsolete in a month or so. If I had bought it on contract (which I didn't; I bought it on Craigslist), the contract would only be halfway over. Apple can manage it, but if another company releases seventeen different phones and tablets in a month, people get overwhelmed. They default to the ever-popular iPhone and iPad, and create the Apple-esque world that we live in today.
 
Azhar said:
Aren't you listening to yourself? The concept of ultrabooks are only 3 weeks old. HP just came out with the Folio 13 just 2 weeks ago. Don't you think it's too soon to declare them dead or not selling well?

You say 15" laptops can sell for $450 and 13" for $800-1000. Guess how much I paid for my Core i5 13" Folio 13? $899. Wouldn't you say that falls right into your expectations of how much laptops should cost?

Just because more people will buy 15" laptop does not make 13" laptop niches. It just makes 15" more preferable.
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15" regular notebook vs 13" ultrabook. ok maybe i dont understand what an ultrabook is, but i thought the macbook air, toshiba portege, asus zenbook, and i think a lenovo are all ultrabooks. i thought it meant a computer which is capable of all your everyday needs (core i5-i7, integrated graphics) but in a very small and light form factor. am i wrong? you seem to think that ultrabook=folio 13. my point is that an ultrabook and a $450 notebook have similar specs, but the ultrabook costs twice as much, is half as thick, and ~1lb lighter. my point is that relatively few people are willing to make that tradeoff. please let me know which part of that you disagree with.
 
ekuest said:
15" regular notebook vs 13" ultrabook. ok maybe i dont understand what an ultrabook is, but i thought the macbook air, toshiba portege, asus zenbook, and i think a lenovo are all ultrabooks. i thought it meant a computer which is capable of all your everyday needs (core i5-i7, integrated graphics) but in a very small and light form factor. am i wrong? you seem to think that ultrabook=folio 13. my point is that an ultrabook and a $450 notebook have similar specs, but the ultrabook costs twice as much, is half as thick, and ~1lb lighter. my point is that relatively few people are willing to make that tradeoff. please let me know which part of that you disagree with.
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I have to agree: although ultralight notebooks in general are much nice to use, they just aren't all that popular. People want cheap stuff. That's why really low-end HPs and Acers are extremely popular.
 
I know this is a entushiast hardware forum and all, but why netbooks are a flop?

Sure, they're slow and small, but have decent battery life, reasonably cheap and easy to carry. Most people I know who goes to college have one, as a standard notebook one is too bulky to take notes.

I miss my netbook when I'm walking around. Sure, a 15' screen is nice, but it's heavy and big. I could barely notice the netbook on my backpack.
 
cdr_74_premium said:
I know this is a entushiast hardware forum and all, but why netbooks are a flop?

Sure, they're slow and small, but have decent battery life, reasonably cheap and easy to carry. Most people I know who goes to college have one, as a standard notebook one is too bulky to take notes.

I miss my netbook when I'm walking around. Sure, a 15' screen is nice, but it's heavy and big. I could barely notice the netbook on my backpack.
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For a little while they were huge, but tablets seem to be pushing into that market and over-all it seems like netbooks were just a phase that is going to be short lived.
 
Derangel said:
For a little while they were huge, but tablets seem to be pushing into that market and over-all it seems like netbooks were just a phase that is going to be short lived.
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Yeah, IMO the main problem with netbooks is that their screens were just too small. 10 inches is a bare minimum, and anything smaller is a bit ridiculous. IMO, CR-48-esque notebooks are the way to go when it comes to cheap portable computing. Tablets are nice, but unless you have a keyboard it's a serious chore to type up a forum post.
 
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